What date will we be back watching live football at SJP Thread.

[Alistair20000]

I'm sorry but the notion that we just need to 'live with it' is utter nonsense. 1% are dying, when we just about have the hospitals to cope with it, although we really are at breaking point. There are 66m people in the UK. So 1% is 660k people. Once the NHS is overwhelmed that 1% turns to 2% and 3%.

How many more people get seriously ill? How many more get long Covid?

An effective vaccine is the only route out of this.

On the point of when we will return to stadiums, then if the vaccine rollout continues apace and any new variants are covered by existing vaccines, then surely we'll be back in August, with social distancing etc.

1% of what please ?

And if no effective vaccine is found what then ?

 

[Legohead]

Legohead is right in that once vaccines are administered then we'll have to manage it over probably the next decade with yearly shots and tweaking that etc. Vallance himself has said there will be a point where, like flu, we have to accept a certain amount of yearly deaths - quoting 20,000 deaths in bad flu years.

Normality has to and will return eventually, just like after any pandemic. Just hope the world is a bit better prepared next time...

Agree Max. Also my view would be the same if there was NO vaccine. If a vaccine could not have been made then we'd have had no choice as a species but to grin and bear it and get back to normal anyway until the herd immunity kicked in. So ultimately, vaccine or not - eventually we have to accept that people will die from Covid just as they do from a multitude of other things.

Unless we all want to stay at home forever and die that way instead? No society - no NHS, no food, no nothing.

 

[Boyo]

1% of what please ?

And if no effective vaccine is found what then ?

COVID-19 deaths: Infection fatality ratio is about 1% says new report | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

www.imperial.ac.uk

There are effective vaccines.

 

[Alistair20000]

COVID-19 deaths: Infection fatality ratio is about 1% says new report | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

www.imperial.ac.uk

There are effective vaccines.

If there are effective vaccines that are guaranteed to work why is there so much concern about variants and mutations ?

If the article is saying that 1% of people infected with Covid die, that presupposes that the number of infections is accurately counted. It is not; many cases not reported.

A better guide is the death rate by reference to the population as a whole: say 100,000 out of 67 million in the U.K. around 0.15% to date. I have asked a number of reasonably intelligent people to tell me what the death rate is and only one person has come close. When I say 0.15% to date they do not believe it.

 

[Oldsmobile-88]

Anyway back on topic.It will be interesting to see how football clubs will manage the return to stadiums for spectators where Season Tickets are concerned.
I doubt as many will renew in the dark as they did in the close season last year.
There needs to be a clear plan about when spectators are allowed back to give fans confidence in paying up front.

 

[older-codger]

And the death count is

If there are effective vaccines that are guaranteed to work why is there so much concern about variants and mutations ?

If the article is saying that 1% of people infected with Covid die, that presupposes that the number of infections is accurately counted. It is not; many cases not reported.

A better guide is the death rate by reference to the population as a whole: say 100,000 out of 67 million in the U.K. around 0.15% to date. I have asked a number of reasonably intelligent people to tell me what the death rate is and only one person has come close. When I say 0.15% to date they do not believe it.

and the death count is those who have died within 28 days of a positive test - not necessarily this who have died from covid. And I suspect that nobody knows the real death count actually from covid.

While I'm at it, does anyone know how they actually calculate the 'R' value - it never makes sense to me!

 

[Exehausted]

While I'm at it, does anyone know how they actually calculate the 'R' value - it never makes sense to me!

I totally agree, to me it's a red herring this "R" value. They have regularly said that we have had the highest R number in Devon and Cornwall and yet we have consistently had the lowest number of cases per 100,000 people. So if we are supposedly spreading it faster why are our numbers so low and staying low (with the exception of the spike in Newquay a couple of weeks ago that seems to have subsided) ? I also agree with Olds that less people are likely to renew their season tickets unless there is solid evidence that we can expect to see a full or at least a large part, of next season.

 

[Grecian Max]

Also re: death rate, this is likely going to drop steadily as the vaccines have been proven to reduce severe symptoms even if you get it still.

Can't help but think things will be looking rather different in the summer, especially as the natural dip in infections (covid being clearly seasonal as shown in similar infection curves in non lockdown Sweden) will be happening around June/July in drier weather

 

[Boyo]

If there are effective vaccines that are guaranteed to work why is there so much concern about variants and mutations ?

If the article is saying that 1% of people infected with Covid die, that presupposes that the number of infections is accurately counted. It is not; many cases not reported.

A better guide is the death rate by reference to the population as a whole: say 100,000 out of 67 million in the U.K. around 0.15% to date. I have asked a number of reasonably intelligent people to tell me what the death rate is and only one person has come close. When I say 0.15% to date they do not believe it.

The current vaccines work on existing strains. It’s uncertain if those same vaccines will work on new variants.

Your definition is merely a calculation of the percentage of the population who have died within 28 days of a positive test. It’s of little value for any future modelling when trying to understand the percentage of people who will likely die if x number of people test positive within a given time frame.

 

[Red Devon]

The current vaccines work on existing strains. It’s uncertain if those same vaccines will work on new variants.

Your definition is merely a calculation of the percentage of the population who have died within 28 days of a positive test. It’s of little value for any future modelling when trying to understand the percentage of people who will likely die if x number of people test positive within a given time frame.

Even if they’re not up to 90% effective like at the moment they are likely to give some protection scientists are saying.