I haven't really thought this through, but I guess a result that retains our advantage over a team below us, let's say a draw with Accrington, is, potentially, more help to us in avoiding relegation than beating a team higher up the table.Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?
And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?
For example, if Arsenal were to play Man City with three games remaining and went into the game with a six-point advantage, a draw would be enough to secure the title, even if they went on to lose their final two games. Conversely, were they to lose to Man City, they could win one of their remaining two games – which would give them a bigger points total – and still miss out on the title.