Welcome Gary Caldwell - new manager

Egg

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Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?

And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?
I haven't really thought this through, but I guess a result that retains our advantage over a team below us, let's say a draw with Accrington, is, potentially, more help to us in avoiding relegation than beating a team higher up the table.

For example, if Arsenal were to play Man City with three games remaining and went into the game with a six-point advantage, a draw would be enough to secure the title, even if they went on to lose their final two games. Conversely, were they to lose to Man City, they could win one of their remaining two games – which would give them a bigger points total – and still miss out on the title.
 
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Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?

And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?
The charts are based on 10,000 simulations ... and for the points with a small tally will often create small (or not so small) blips., that's what the message under the chart "Percentages based on very low occurrences (far left or right) are likely to be 'inaccurate' " is trying to convey. I've ran a local version of 100,000 simulations & this gives a smoother curve. It also shows that if we get zero more points still got good chance of survival.
1679345937580.png
or view the league 1 equivalent https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LP
 

dontpassback

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Dec 30, 2015
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I think Gary Caldwell has done well,coming in after matt Taylor,left, he has restructured the team,and managed to attract players to ECFC from afar,something that Taylor was always bemoaning,so in the long run I think he will do well for us
 

Red Devon

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Apr 1, 2004
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I think Gary Caldwell has done well,coming in after matt Taylor,left, he has restructured the team,and managed to attract players to ECFC from afar,something that Taylor was always bemoaning,so in the long run I think he will do well for us
He’ll need to make a number of signings of equal calibre in the summer
 
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