Welcome Gary Caldwell - new manager

[tom_ecfc]

I see a lot on here about giving Caldwell “time” the risk to that is that it could be time to relegate the club….anything less than five points from the next five matches that time May have ran out…

I can’t believe you think we could potentially still be relegated!? The bottom 4 clubs need nearly as many wins they’ve got ALL SEASON and for us to lose every game for that to happen.

Accrington still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Plymouth (H)
Sheff Wed (A)
Peterborough (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Bolton (A)
Cambridge (H) 6 pointer

Morecambe still have to play: (selected fixtures)
MK Dons (A) 6 pointer
Barnsley (A)
Plymouth (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Wycombe (H)
Charlton (A)
Exeter (A)

Cambridge still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Burton (A) 6 pointer
Bolton (A)
Peterborough (H)
Wycombe (H)
Plymouth (A)
Accrington (A) 6 pointer
FGR (H) 6 pointer

FGR still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Sheff Wed (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Derby (H)
Wycombe (A)
Barnsley (H)
Cheltenham (A) local ‘derby’
Cambridge (A) 6 pointer

Max points if they win all games remaining:

Accrington - current points 35 + 30 = 65
Morecambe - current points 34 + 24 = 58
Cambridge - current points 30 + 27 = 57
FGR - current points 23 + 27 = 50

Exeter are sat on 46 points with a 0 GD. Some would say GD is irrelevant because if we continue to lose and the teams lower win the difference will swing. But, with only 10 (or less) games remaining we would have to lose lots of games and the current relegated sides to consistently win their remaining games, unlikely!

 

[Red Devon]

I can’t believe you think we could potentially still be relegated!? The bottom 4 clubs need nearly as many wins they’ve got ALL SEASON and for us to lose every game for that to happen.

Accrington still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Plymouth (H)
Sheff Wed (A)
Peterborough (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Bolton (A)
Cambridge (H) 6 pointer

Morecambe still have to play: (selected fixtures)
MK Dons (A) 6 pointer
Barnsley (A)
Plymouth (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Wycombe (H)
Charlton (A)
Exeter (A)

Cambridge still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Burton (A) 6 pointer
Bolton (A)
Peterborough (H)
Wycombe (H)
Plymouth (A)
Accrington (A) 6 pointer
FGR (H) 6 pointer

FGR still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Sheff Wed (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Derby (H)
Wycombe (A)
Barnsley (H)
Cheltenham (A) local ‘derby’
Cambridge (A) 6 pointer

Max points if they win all games remaining:

Accrington - current points 35 + 30 = 65
Morecambe - current points 34 + 24 = 58
Cambridge - current points 30 + 27 = 57
FGR - current points 23 + 27 = 50

Exeter are sat on 46 points with a 0 GD. Some would say GD is irrelevant because if we continue to lose and the teams lower win the difference will swing. But, with only 10 (or less) games remaining we would have to lose lots of games and the current relegated sides to consistently win their remaining games, unlikely!

That was my opinion almost a month ago now after an awful performance away at Port Vale….now a month on the team have started to have an identity about it and Caldwell appears to be understanding things more.

 

[denzel]

I can’t believe you think we could potentially still be relegated!? The bottom 4 clubs need nearly as many wins they’ve got ALL SEASON and for us to lose every game for that to happen.

Accrington still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Plymouth (H)
Sheff Wed (A)
Peterborough (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Bolton (A)
Cambridge (H) 6 pointer

Morecambe still have to play: (selected fixtures)
MK Dons (A) 6 pointer
Barnsley (A)
Plymouth (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Wycombe (H)
Charlton (A)
Exeter (A)

Cambridge still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Burton (A) 6 pointer
Bolton (A)
Peterborough (H)
Wycombe (H)
Plymouth (A)
Accrington (A) 6 pointer
FGR (H) 6 pointer

FGR still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Sheff Wed (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Derby (H)
Wycombe (A)
Barnsley (H)
Cheltenham (A) local ‘derby’
Cambridge (A) 6 pointer

Max points if they win all games remaining:

Accrington - current points 35 + 30 = 65
Morecambe - current points 34 + 24 = 58
Cambridge - current points 30 + 27 = 57
FGR - current points 23 + 27 = 50

Exeter are sat on 46 points with a 0 GD. Some would say GD is irrelevant because if we continue to lose and the teams lower win the difference will swing. But, with only 10 (or less) games remaining we would have to lose lots of games and the current relegated sides to consistently win their remaining games, unlikely!

Don't forget, MK Dons are one point ahead but have played one goal more. And then you have Oxford and Burton.
I'm a natural pessimist but the idea we still could go down is ludicrous.

 

[tom_ecfc]

That was my opinion almost a month ago now after an awful performance away at Port Vale….now a month on the team have started to have an identity about it and Caldwell appears to be understanding things more.

Haha sorry, I saw a new post and thought it was you, but yours was from a while ago, apologises!

 

[andrew p long]

I can’t believe you think we could potentially still be relegated!? The bottom 4 clubs need nearly as many wins they’ve got ALL SEASON and for us to lose every game for that to happen.

Accrington still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Plymouth (H)
Sheff Wed (A)
Peterborough (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Bolton (A)
Cambridge (H) 6 pointer

Morecambe still have to play: (selected fixtures)
MK Dons (A) 6 pointer
Barnsley (A)
Plymouth (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Wycombe (H)
Charlton (A)
Exeter (A)

Cambridge still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Burton (A) 6 pointer
Bolton (A)
Peterborough (H)
Wycombe (H)
Plymouth (A)
Accrington (A) 6 pointer
FGR (H) 6 pointer

FGR still have to play: (selected fixtures)
Sheff Wed (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Derby (H)
Wycombe (A)
Barnsley (H)
Cheltenham (A) local ‘derby’
Cambridge (A) 6 pointer

Max points if they win all games remaining:

Accrington - current points 35 + 30 = 65
Morecambe - current points 34 + 24 = 58
Cambridge - current points 30 + 27 = 57
FGR - current points 23 + 27 = 50

Exeter are sat on 46 points with a 0 GD. Some would say GD is irrelevant because if we continue to lose and the teams lower win the difference will swing. But, with only 10 (or less) games remaining we would have to lose lots of games and the current relegated sides to consistently win their remaining games, unlikely!

Yep, it's very very unlikely we will go down. But I'm not counting any chickens until either it's mathematically certain or until GoT's probability thread puts the chance at 0% (where is this season's probability thread? is it deemed irrelevant?)

Scenarios where a bottom four team overtake our current points tally is Accrington winning half and losing half of their remaining games - v us on Saturday, winning home games against Port Vale, Fleetwood and Cambridge and then final day win away at Oxford for whom that may well be a meaningless game by then. That would give Accrington 3 more points than our 46. Of course for us to go down sides like MKDons and Oxford would also need to get 4 wins to be 2/3 points ahead of our current tally as well.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Yep, it's very very unlikely we will go down. But I'm not counting any chickens until either it's mathematically certain or until GoT's probability thread puts the chance at 0.1% (where is this season's probability thread? is it deemed irrelevant?)

Yes ... unless we lose our next four matches ... but for the moment https://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/ExeterCity#TP

 

[Cowshed Grecian]

It would take some collapse now to get relegated. We’ve got a tough run in mind you…being around where we are now I’d be more than happy with!

 

[andrew p long]

Yes ... unless we lose our next four matches ... but for the moment https://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/ExeterCity#TP

Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?

And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?

 

[STURTZ]

People keep going on about our "tough run in" but to me it's just an exciting end to a pretty good season. We've beaten or drawn with a lot of those top sides already, why should we fail to do it again. Bring it on!

 

[Super Ronnie Jepson]

Caldwell appears to be understanding things more.

Loving your work here. Caldwell is understanding things more...not that what Caldwell has understood all along time is now becoming apparent to us?