Welcome Gary Caldwell - new manager

[Egg]

Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?

And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?

I haven't really thought this through, but I guess a result that retains our advantage over a team below us, let's say a draw with Accrington, is, potentially, more help to us in avoiding relegation than beating a team higher up the table.

For example, if Arsenal were to play Man City with three games remaining and went into the game with a six-point advantage, a draw would be enough to secure the title, even if they went on to lose their final two games. Conversely, were they to lose to Man City, they could win one of their remaining two games – which would give them a bigger points total – and still miss out on the title.

 

[tom_ecfc]

I'm not counting any chickens

My chicken are safely being reared for another season in L1

(can you rear a chicken?!?!)

 

[DB9]

My chicken are safely being reared for another season in L1

(can you rear a chicken?!?!)

Probably but it might make the chicken's eyes water!

 

[ramone]

My chicken are safely being reared for another season in L1

(can you rear a chicken?!?!)

Only if you are a rooster !!

 

[contrabombarde]

Only if you are a rooster !!

That’s foul!

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Great stuff. One question. If I've read the graphs right, we appear more likely to go down of we get 51 points than if we get 49 or 50. Have I read that right?

And ,if that is the case, what causes that quirk?

The charts are based on 10,000 simulations ... and for the points with a small tally will often create small (or not so small) blips., that's what the message under the chart "Percentages based on very low occurrences (far left or right) are likely to be 'inaccurate' " is trying to convey. I've ran a local version of 100,000 simulations & this gives a smoother curve. It also shows that if we get zero more points still got good chance of survival.

or view the league 1 equivalent https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LP

 

[Hants_red]

For those that like numbers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643301728668770304

 

[Devon Red]

For those that like numbers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1643301728668770304

Here come the 'Nicholson speaks well' brigade

 

[dontpassback]

I think Gary Caldwell has done well,coming in after matt Taylor,left, he has restructured the team,and managed to attract players to ECFC from afar,something that Taylor was always bemoaning,so in the long run I think he will do well for us

 

[Red Devon]

I think Gary Caldwell has done well,coming in after matt Taylor,left, he has restructured the team,and managed to attract players to ECFC from afar,something that Taylor was always bemoaning,so in the long run I think he will do well for us

He’ll need to make a number of signings of equal calibre in the summer