The Probability Thread 2014.

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

I demand another graph, G-o-T.

Love pictorial representation, me. It also tells us how many points will definitely guarantee safety. It was 52 before Tuesday night and could well be less now.

in latest run of 10,000
51 pts we "went down" once in 375. (0.027%)
52 pts always stayed up.

but looking at all teams 4 in 10,000 the team in 23rd got 53pts
depends how you define "definitely guarantee safety"

Mathematically Argyle (on 55pts) could still finish bottom!

 

[RaeUK]

... Mathematically Argyle (on 55pts) could still finish bottom!

You know how to cheer up my day.

 

[muppetdodger]

I'm surprised the prob of Northampton going down is so much higher than Pompeys. Surely with Nothampton's recent form their prob of relegation shouldn't be much more than Pompey's given the latters dreadful recent form. Am I missing something?

 

[Anonymous]

form is entirely due to things happening in the past, it doesn't tell you the future, therefore in terms of probability it probably has no place.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

[HR][/HR]

I'm surprised the prob of Northampton going down is so much higher than Pompeys. Surely with Nothampton's recent form their prob of relegation shouldn't be much more than Pompey's given the latters dreadful recent form. Am I missing something?

Good call that - and apologies from me. - There was an error in the current form calculations - which sent ratings all over the shop.

Re-ran & following result:

		19-Mar	23-Mar	[B]26-Mar[/B]
Torquay		71.0%	90.0%	92.0%
Northampton	38.4%	34.6%	38.8%
Portsmouth	18.0%	25.2%	27.5%
Wycombe		14.8%	19.1%	25.2%
Bristol Rovers	7.1%	5.7%	7.4%
Bury		7.3%	6.4%	4.2%
Accrington	3.5%	3.7%	2.0%
Cheltenham	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Mansfield	8.0%	5.9%	0.7%
Exeter		24.6%	7.0%	0.4%
OTHERS		7.2%	2.1%	1.2%

City's relegation % has doubled (0.2% to 0.4%) PANIC!!!

Northampton/Pompy difference only 11.3% apart (was 27.1%)

 

[andrew p long]

I'm surprised the prob of Northampton going down is so much higher than Pompeys. Surely with Nothampton's recent form their prob of relegation shouldn't be much more than Pompey's given the latters dreadful recent form. Am I missing something?

As Anon says, form is a really bad guide. On form City had no chance against Fleetwood and Argyle but on form should have hammered Accrington...

But,entirely by an accident, the prob thread seems to have picked out that Portmouth would win yesterday and Northampton lose...

 

[Mr Jinx]

could we please have an update after the weekend's results?

 

[richard_portland]

Let me guess, as we lost we didn't improve our chances of beating the drop, but as the bottom two also lost they didn't decrease either. The probability is that if we pick up more points we will be more likely to stay up and if Northampton don't improve their recent form this will help as well. I even worked that out without a graph or chart:x

 

[Sergeant]

Let me guess, as we lost we didn't improve our chances of beating the drop, but as the bottom two also lost they didn't decrease either. The probability is that if we pick up more points we will be more likely to stay up and if Northampton don't improve their recent form this will help as well. I even worked that out without a graph or chart:x

Can I see a graph please to either confirm or dispell this crazy theory?

A chart would be nice as well.

 

[John William]

Let me guess, as we lost we didn't improve our chances of beating the drop, but as the bottom two also lost they didn't decrease either. The probability is that if we pick up more points we will be more likely to stay up and if Northampton don't improve their recent form this will help as well. I even worked that out without a graph or chart:x

With every match day that goes by with everyone losing we increase our chances of avoiding the drop, as there are fewer points that can be gained and fewer permutations by which the clubs below us can get those points and overtake us.

I have reduced my guess as to the number of points needed to stay up from 52 to 51 and now 50, as I can't see Northampton getting 11 points or 10 plus improving their GD by 18, given their difficult run-in: Accrington A, Burton H, Wycombe A, Portsmouth H, Daggers A, Oxford H.