The Probability Thread 2014.

[Northants Grecian]

So two more wins then?

 

[andrew p long]

So two more wins then?

Indeed. For ages - indeed almost since the turn of the year- four more wins (plus the occasional draw here and there) was going to be enough. This was because ,of course, we had been so far ahead of one point per game, and just needed one point per game to end up with 50+.

Can't wait for prob thread update.Yesterday's win made a real jump up the table and my guess is it will slash the probability of relegation from 25% in half.

 

[richard_portland]

No guarantee but as record points total going down was barnet on 51? Last season, I want 8 more points and ideally from the next five games. The situation is likely to alter game by game so unless we win the next three think it will be late April at the earliest before we can relax.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

...
Can't wait for prob thread update.Yesterday's win made a real jump up the table and my guess is it will slash the probability of relegation from 25% in half.

Better than halved - now 7.0%

before the weekend, I said

...
48 points give 50/50 change of survival – three points either way as good as confirm out fate.

48 points now give 63% chance of survival. So four more points gives us a fair chance of survival and eight more as good as guarantee it.


Finally ... one for the optimists ... one of the 10,000 calculations gave us a play-off spot (0.01%)

 

[richard_portland]

Flawed thinking IMO, it might be mathematically sound but I certainly wouldn't want to rely on staying up with four points from the next twenty four. Even fifty two will only be easy to judge in the last couple of games, if we get to fifty two with four games left then I would agree but only because I would then expect us to get more points from the last four.

Surely you can just simplify the whole thread to the more points we get the more likely we are to stay up?(boffin)

 

[muppetdodger]

It just shows what three points for a win does, if one win changes our odds from 25% to 7% chance of going down. Personally I think it will be Torquay and Portsmouth, the latter are on a bad run and a friend says they are just dreadful! Keep it up G-O-T! Great stats.

Personally I am surprised only one in 10000 came out as making the playoffs, as this is a very tight league!

 

[NotDannyColes]

Sports Club Stats is telling me we currently have a 4% chance of going down. I don't want it to happen, but it's looking like it could be Portsmouth and the Turks.

 

[Red Devon]

This was after 38 games last season

20, Torquay 40 pts -8
21, Plymouth 40 pts -10
22, Barnet 40 pts -11
23, Aldershot 40pts -15
24, Accrington 40 pts -21

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

update without graphs - relegation now at 0.24% (24/10000).

Relegation	11-Feb	19-Feb	23-Feb	26-Feb	02-Mar	09-Mar	12-Mar	17-Mar	19-Mar	23-Mar	26-Mar
Torquay		39.4%	43.9%	70.6%	75.7%	82.1%	92.2%	82.1%	85.8%	71.0%	90.0%	94.1%
Northampton	57.6%	64.1%	51.3%	38.9%	38.8%	46.9%	27.8%	23.3%	38.4%	34.6%	50.0%
Portsmouth	19.5%	6.3%	15.7%	9.3%	8.9%	11.1%	12.2%	17.6%	18.0%	25.2%	22.9%
Wycombe		34.1%	37.8%	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	4.5%	11.1%	15.0%	14.8%	19.1%	20.1%
Bristol Rovers	7.2%	6.4%	3.4%	4.7%	3.5%	1.2%	3.9%	6.2%	7.1%	5.7%	6.4%
Bury		7.2%	7.5%	3.5%	1.2%	2.4%	3.4%	4.0%	3.8%	7.3%	6.4%	3.3%
Accrington	6.5%	10.3%	4.8%	11.6%	15.7%	5.8%	10.1%	10.9%	3.5%	3.7%	1.5%
Cheltenham	7.9%	6.5%	2.5%	6.5%	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%
Mansfield	4.5%	6.8%	3.3%	11.5%	9.4%	5.2%	11.4%	7.7%	8.0%	5.9%	0.5%
Morecambe	3.0%	3.0%	4.5%	7.1%	9.0%	3.3%	2.0%	0.5%	0.9%	0.6%	0.4%
Exeter		4.0%	1.1%	3.4%	9.6%	11.1%	13.4%	25.1%	23.0%	24.6%	7.0%	0.2%
OTHERS		9.3%	6.3%	14.4%	12.0%	6.6%	11.4%	8.6%	6.1%	6.3%	2.5%	0.3%

Our play-off chances are about the same as relegation 0.22% (22/10000)


We've dented Argyle's playoff chances now at 20.5% (from 55.7%)

 

[East Devon Clown]

I demand another graph, G-o-T.

Love pictorial representation, me. It also tells us how many points will definitely guarantee safety. It was 52 before Tuesday night and could well be less now.