The Probability Thread 2014.

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

I’ve dusted down the old spreadsheet & thought I’d give a quick update before tonight’s game.

No graphs today.

Just table showing City’s changes of relegation changing from around 1% to 13% in four games.

	Torquay	N'mpton	Exeter	P'mth	Others	After		N'ton
12-Feb	39.4%	57.6%	4.0%	19.5%	79.5%	pre Southend	
19-Feb	43.9%	64.1%	[B][SIZE=3]1.1%[/SIZE][/B]	6.3%	84.6%	win & draw 	lost
23-Feb	70.6%	51.3%	3.4%	15.7%	59.1%	lost (R'dale)	win
26-Feb	75.7%	38.9%	9.6%	9.3%	66.5%	lost (ww)	win
02-Mar	82.1%	38.8%	11.1%	8.9%	59.2%	lost (york)	draw
09-Mar	92.2%	46.9%	[B][SIZE=3]13.4%[/SIZE][/B]	11.1%	36.4%	draw (D&R)	draw

It goes without saying (but I’m going to say it anyway) tonight’s game could be critical to our fate.
But to try and quantify the significance, I’ve re-ran the calculations based on a City Win, Draw & Defeat.
This gives the following percentages (these will be different tomorrow – because of the other 11 matches)

Win	[SIZE=3]5%[/SIZE]	(N’pton 57%)
Draw	[SIZE=3]15%[/SIZE]	(48%)
Lose	[SIZE=3]21.%[/SIZE]	(33%)

These figures would support the argument (ignoring factors on the field at the time) – that if we’re drawing heading towards the 90min mark – it’s well worth pushing for the win ‘cause the benefits -10% change (15 to 5%) outweighs the potential added pain of a defeat – 6% change (15 to 21%).

… discuss …

 

[Northants Grecian]

Ah...the season is a drawing in...a win would make it almost impossible..while a win makes it 1 in 5...

 

[Egg]

Interesting stuff. Would be keen to see the updated figures.

 

[richard_portland]

you don't need a probability thread to see which way things are headed.

 

[Northants Grecian]

Now 9/2 with coral - which is around the 1/5th we were promised....

We are 3rd favourites to go down...

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

after Tuesday's games ...

relegation now at 25.1%

most likely points total 51 which gives a 91% chance of survival.

and 49 points will give a > 50% chance of league football next season.

 

[richard_portland]

this isn't a short term blip. It's half a season of poor form. Do your probability thread over that period and see what the result is if you think it will help. Basically the probability of us staying up will increase if we win some matches, you can have that for free

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Some updated graphs – percentage have not changed much since the weekend & last night’s matches.

48 points give 50/50 change of survival – three points either way as good as confirm out fate.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

My normal calculations uses a mixture of Season form, Recent form and a random factor ('cause previous results is not a garentee of future performance). Just reran based on current form only & relegation chance goes up to 39%

		Normal	CURRENT FORM
Torquay		71.0%	64.9%
Northampton	38.4%	19.9%
Exeter		24.6%	38.6%
Portsmouth	18.0%	31.2%
Wycombe		14.8%	13.4%
Mansfield	8.0%	7.0%
Bury		7.3%	8.2%
Bristol Rovers	7.1%	3.5%
Wimbledon	4.6%	8.1%
Accrington	3.5%	2.0%
OTHERS		2.7%	3.5%

 

[Pete Martin (CTID)]

I find this almost like deja vu. When we went down in 2002 we had 48 points and Shrewsbury 41. As most fans know, we were only relegated by one point, having the best goal difference of the bottom 4 teams, same as now.

We can only hope that "current form" suddenly improves.