Politics Today

[Mr Jinx]

No chance that the Labour vote would be that low and TBP that high. Doubt that the Lib Dems would poll that high either.

What you usually see (as we did in Peterborough) is people falling back in line with the two party system. It's almost too entrenched to fight. As Farage will attest when he tried to take Thanet: Labour & the Tories (and the lib Dems to an extent) have a very well polished boots-on-the-ground get-out-the-vote operations that have been built up over many years. You just can't get a new party like UKIP, CHUK or TBP making a dent in that overnight. What you see in today's poll isn't going to happen in a GE.

 

[arthur]

What you usually see (as we did in Peterborough) is people falling back in line with the two party system. It's almost too entrenched to fight. As Farage will attest when he tried to take Thanet: Labour & the Tories (and the lib Dems to an extent) have a very well polished boots-on-the-ground get-out-the-vote operations that have been built up over many years. You just can't get a new party like UKIP, CHUK or TBP making a dent in that overnight. What you see in today's poll isn't going to happen in a GE.

Labour lost over 17% of its vote in Peterborough and the Tories 25%. How this is "falling back in line with the two party system" I'm not sure.

 

[arthur]

Because what we really need at this juncture is yet another shouty Scottish woman.

In your world is it possible to be a Scottish woman and not shouty? Can you give me an example of Jo Swinson shouting?

 

[Alistair20000]

Good morning art.

Difference is that Peterborough was a by election and my post (and I think Jinxster’s post) is focused on a GE.

 

[arthur]

Good morning art.

Difference is that Peterborough was a by election and my post (and I think Jinxster’s post) is focused on a GE.

Good morning Al. Yes, I appreciate by elections are different beasts but Jinx did say "as we did in Peterborough " which implied that this is a template for what we might see at a GE

 

[Temporarily Exiled]

Labour swarmed Peterborough with members and supporters, far more than any other party had (a large number made their way from neighbouring constituencies). The Lib Dems didn't have anything like that (Peterborough is a historically weak area and the local party base is tiny), Brexit Party had a decent number of campaigners but by all accounts they were useless – reports they went down the same streets twice, missed others, went in large groups with some just waving flags. Conservatives had very few people campaigning, similar to Lib Dems (although they've done better in Peterborough in recent times).

Against this backdrop, there was still a huge swing away from Labour and Conservatives to Lib Dems and Brexit Party. Repeat those swings nationally and Labour and the Tories are in serious trouble. As for 'it was a by-election', that's not a get-out, that makes it worse. Swings this big mean it can be impossible for Labour and Tory members to target which seats to campaign heavily in. They both only have finite manpower, and moving people to campaign in Peterborough for a GE means they're not campaginign in a seat somewhere else – this can tend to amplify things.

Brecon and Radnorshire will be a different beast because the Lib Dems are throwing the kitchen sink at it. That seat will be unrepresentative of any national swing – and don't believe people that tell you otherwise. Yes Labour won in Peterborough, but in Peterborough they were 44.8% ahead of LDs in 2017, while with Labour activists swarming the city (and LDs not being able to do much) that gap fell to 18.6%. Repeat that nationally and seats like Cambridge, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, Durham, Hull West, even Cardiff Central come into play. And since Peterborough the evidence is tbat Lib Dem support has rallied. You can add a new leader bounce for Davey or Swinson too. And you can credibly say that this surge in support is even more pronounced in London (where LDs beat Labour in the EuroParl elections).

These times they are a-changing.

As for my claims of Corbyn being historically unpopular as an opposition leader, I'm just going off polling.

 

[Oldsmobile-88]

Watched President Trumps news conference on CNN this morning(I was bored) Highly entertaining I must say...No fudge or ambiguity !!!

 

[tavyred]

Apparently this deal was 20 years in the making, which shows the difficulty in making trade deals, something which Fox seemed to think would be easy according to his failed promise.
This opens up free trade to countries with a total population of 800 million, and allows the four South American countries to export agricultural products to the EU +++. This will surely make it more difficult to export our own agricultural products to the EU and to trade significantly with the four aforementioned countries.

Apparently this deal is still has to be ratified by national and some regional parliaments. Irish beef farmers are already up in arms bemoaning the prospect of the dumping of cheap South American beef into its markets.

 

[IndoMike]

Apparently this deal is still has to be ratified by national and some regional parliaments. Irish beef farmers are already up in arms bemoaning the prospect of the dumping of cheap South American beef into its markets.

I'm not sure how that will work out, but indeed I was thinking about Scottish beef exports and how it might be squeezed out by Argentinian beef. I'm wondering why the UK can't have a free trade agreement with the EU when these 4 South American countries can. I'm sure I'm missing something - maybe cos early morning and my sleep pattern is currently misfiring.

 

[iscalad]

I'm not sure how that will work out, but indeed I was thinking about Scottish beef exports and how it might be squeezed out by Argentinian beef. I'm wondering why the UK can't have a free trade agreement with the EU when these 4 South American countries can. I'm sure I'm missing something - maybe cos early morning and my sleep pattern is currently misfiring.

We will have one. After 20 years of negotiations.