The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

[Super Ronnie Jepson]

So our remaining games are against the teams in the following positions:

3,5,6,7,8,11,17,18,19,21,22

An even spread, but sadly apart from maybe Northampton they are all likely to be playing for something!

I'm not sure I'd call 5 out of 11 games against teams in the top third of the table an 'even spread'. The five games against teams in the bottom third might seem like it balances it out but if the end of last season is anything to go by those three wins we need will have to come from those 5 games.

 

[denzel]

I'm not sure I'd call 5 out of 11 games against teams in the top third of the table an 'even spread'. The five games against teams in the bottom third might seem like it balances it out but if the end of last season is anything to go by those three wins we need will have to come from those 5 games.

Eh? We also have 5 games against teams in the bottom third...

 

[Hants_red]

I still think we're safe, just a few more wins. Beating Cheltenham and Burton will be important. Not losing to Port Vale away will also help.

 

[ECFC-GC]

I still think we're safe, just a few more wins. Beating Cheltenham and Burton will be important. Not losing to Port Vale away will also help.

Really!

 

[Boyo]

I still think we're safe, just a few more wins. Beating Cheltenham and Burton will be important. Not losing to Port Vale away will also help.

IF we lose to Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton, we’re in a world of trouble. A couple of wins however, should see us safe.

 

[andrew p long]

IF we lose to Cheltenham, Port Vale and Burton, we’re in a world of trouble. A couple of wins however, should see us safe.

Indeed. We still have to play 5 of the seven teams between us and the bottom two - those games will go a long way to determine where we finish. (as well as those 3 teams we also play Charlton and Shrewsbury)

 

[grecian-near-hell]

Indeed. We still have to play 5 of the seven teams between us and the bottom two - those games will go a long way to determine where we finish. (as well as those 3 teams we also play Charlton and Shrewsbury)

So ten to go and five of those against teams below us - every confidence, cough cough Fleetwood!

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

City's relegation percentage still around 10% (10.5%)

But A**yle who currently have 40 pts from 36 games & who are 16th (all three the same as City) have a relegation percentage of 15.4%, even though only three teams get related from the Championship. With 23th only two points behind on 38pts & with A**yle's current poor form they might have an "interesting" end to thier season.

from https://www.probs4.club/lge/champ#LOOT-4

 

[haka]

Again today, teams playing each other so those games can't deliver 3 points to all the strugglers.

Wycombe won (probably safe) so Reading lost. Shrewsbury won (not safe) so Port Vale lost.

 

[Hants_red]

Seven point gap to Cheltenham. A draw there would be enough.