Grecian-on-Tyne
Member
Think that's classifiedI trust Fujitsu haven't been allowed anywhere near the algorithms being used.
Think that's classifiedI trust Fujitsu haven't been allowed anywhere near the algorithms being used.
Sorry, No. There is not a fixed percentage for each match.@Grecian-on-Tyne Is there somewhere we can see the % likelihood of results on each game in your model?
Funny how it doesn't feel like we have a less than 10 per cent chance of relegationAfter last nights results + Reading's additional two points deduction, City's relegation percentage has now dipped to below 10% (9.6%)
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https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4
Can think of three reasons ...Funny how it doesn't feel like we have a less than 10 per cent chance of relegation
I thought we were all pessimists on here ........Can think of three reasons ...
1. My model is crap
2. You're a pessimist.
3. Historically our current position 40pts from 35 has seen a bottom four finish around 22% of the time. It just the cluster of teams below us makes it more likely the points needed to survey is a few less than average. https://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity#TPaP
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the observation in post #4 is still true with the points for relegation/survival has hardly changed
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Think this is the point. For it to require more than 49-ish points to stay up, you'd be asking about 7 or 8 sides to outperform their season so far. That could happen, but isn't very likely. So I suppose the probability reflects the likelihood of us getting fewer than about 8 points from 11 matches.It just the cluster of teams below us makes it more likely the points needed to survey is a few less than average.