The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

[Super Ronnie Jepson]

This is always my favourite thread of the year.

 

[andrew p long]

Relegation % up after today from 41% to 44-45%?

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Relegation % up after today from 41% to 44-45%?

Probably ... I've recently changed my source for results/table from fbref.com to api-football, good chance charts will be updated around 23:30, I just hope my code will interpret abandoned games correctly.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Relegation % up after today from 41% to 44-45%?

now 45.2%

from https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LTO

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

This is going to be a long post ... so please bear with me ...

from: https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LPOPl

My calculations make the 50/50 point for relegation is around the 46/47 points mark. It's 47 for City due to our poor goal difference https://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity#TPOPl
The 15/85% marks (likely range) is 44-49 points.

You might want to know how this compares with previous seasons. You can explore this using "Historical Data > Outcomes" https://www.probs4.club/outcomes


Populate the dropdowns as above (you can select just tier 3, but using 2&3&4 gives smoother charts from more data) + press "Refresh Charts"


The 2nd chart shows the historical relegation mid-point for league 1 is between 49/50 points
The 15 & 85% points (likely range) is 47-52 points.

So, my model predicts the likely relegation/survival mark is: 3 points less than the historical average.

So, it begs the question ... is this valid/true?

Firstly, with Reading & Wigans points deduction this will lower the likely 50/50 point, but don't think this will account for more than one point.

If you look at the 3rd chart on the outcomes page we see:

So, this chart shows the historical average points for each position from 2 to 46 games with points projected to season end (eg average points / games played * 46)
Plus a black dot for each team in the current season, you can hover over the black dot to see team's details

So, we see two teams are around the typical 24th place & three more around the 21st/22nd plus two more around the 19/20th this might be considered broadly average & unlikely to give this seasons relegation point much different from the average, the thing I think that helps lower this seasons survival target are the six teams around the 16-18th mark.

So, Lincoln who are ranked 12th have a point tally which is typical for 16th place, so there is a large cluster of teams who need a modest downturn in form to get dragged into the relegation battle.

Another observation. There are six teams who are doing better than the historical average 3rd place all those extra points at the top of the table means there are fewer points to go around near the bottom.

So, I think there is a good chance the number of points needed to avoid relegation will be less then a typical season, with 47 points being near the 50% survival mark and 51 being close to safety ... but that could all change over the next few months, but if we can't get to at least 40 points, it becomes immaterial where the survival point is.

 

[andrew p long]

Yes, the make up of the table is very strange this year. Oxford, in the last play off place, are 14 points ahead of the side 4 places below. Conversely ECFC are in the last place above relegation but are only 4 points behind the side 7 places above.

So,strangely, what is most likely is that we will be overtaken by at least one side behind us (it only needs one of two teams to win their game in hand. Conversely, even modest form - a point per game for example, will see us overtake at least one, probably two of the 7 teams immediately above. Of those 7 teams at least one,almost certainly two, will have dreadful runs in future games.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Yes, the make up of the table is very strange this year. Oxford, in the last play off place, are 14 points ahead of the side 4 places below. Conversely ECFC are in the last place above relegation but are only 4 points behind the side 7 places above.

So,strangely, what is most likely is that we will be overtaken by at least one side behind us (it only needs one of two teams to win their game in hand. Conversely, even modest form - a point per game for example, will see us overtake at least one, probably two of the 7 teams immediately above. Of those 7 teams at least one,almost certainly two, will have dreadful runs in future games.

Agree ... If you add up the relegation percentages of the teams above the bottom five it comes to 107%, so meaning a very good chance one of them will get relegated and it's more likely that two will get relegated than none.

Put an extra check in my 10,000 runs & below are the result from tallying the number of the current bottom five that get relegated.

0    2    0.02%
1    210    2.1%
2    2465    25%
3    5248    52%
4    2075    21%
       
Total    10000

so around 27% chance that a least three of the current bottom five will survive.

the two cases when all five survive were:
19 Exeter 52
20 Reading 50
21 Charlton 45
22 Shrewsbury 45
23 Port Vale 45
24 Wigan 43

19 Exeter 47
20 Fleetwood 46
21 Wycombe 45
22 Cambridge 44
23 Lincoln 42
24 Burton 40

 

[Red The Paper (2)]

Yawn

 

[Episkyros]

@Grecian-on-Tyne Is there somewhere we can see the % likelihood of results on each game in your model?

 

[Grecian2K]

I trust Fujitsu haven't been allowed anywhere near the algorithms being used.