Grecian-on-Tyne
Member
So, we have had our first games of 2024 and the season pass the halfway mark. I thought now would be a good time to start the Probability Thread for 2024.
The charts provided are much the same as previous seasons, but for this season I’ve revised my model and it now gives a closer fit against historical data (22 seasons x4 leagues, since 1999, ignoring the covid impacted seasons) to hopefully give a realistic spread of possible outcomes. Most of the improvements has been within the range of 30 to 16 games remaining, the previous model worked well from around the 16 games remaining point.
So a reminder of the model use … This is a result based model. For each of the 10,000 simulations results are applied to each of the remaining fixtures based on each team’s rating. Each team’s rating is calculated based on:
So this model does NOT use:
The two most important links:
http://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1
http://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity
The charts provided are much the same as previous seasons, but for this season I’ve revised my model and it now gives a closer fit against historical data (22 seasons x4 leagues, since 1999, ignoring the covid impacted seasons) to hopefully give a realistic spread of possible outcomes. Most of the improvements has been within the range of 30 to 16 games remaining, the previous model worked well from around the 16 games remaining point.
So a reminder of the model use … This is a result based model. For each of the 10,000 simulations results are applied to each of the remaining fixtures based on each team’s rating. Each team’s rating is calculated based on:
- Season Form (Home & away)
- Current Form (last six home & away games, weighted so more recent games have more influence)
- Plus a random factor, which helps to give a realist spread to the possible outcomes.
So this model does NOT use:
- Expected Goals
- Previous seasons performance
- Team’s Budget
- Optimism or Pessimism of the club’s supports
- One thousand and one other things that cannot be gleamed from a list of results and a league table.
The two most important links:
http://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1
http://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity