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The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

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So, we have had our first games of 2024 and the season pass the halfway mark. I thought now would be a good time to start the Probability Thread for 2024.

The charts provided are much the same as previous seasons, but for this season I’ve revised my model and it now gives a closer fit against historical data (22 seasons x4 leagues, since 1999, ignoring the covid impacted seasons) to hopefully give a realistic spread of possible outcomes. Most of the improvements has been within the range of 30 to 16 games remaining, the previous model worked well from around the 16 games remaining point.

So a reminder of the model use … This is a result based model. For each of the 10,000 simulations results are applied to each of the remaining fixtures based on each team’s rating. Each team’s rating is calculated based on:
  • Season Form (Home & away)
  • Current Form (last six home & away games, weighted so more recent games have more influence)
  • Plus a random factor, which helps to give a realist spread to the possible outcomes.

So this model does NOT use:
  • Expected Goals
  • Previous seasons performance
  • Team’s Budget
  • Optimism or Pessimism of the club’s supports 😊
  • One thousand and one other things that cannot be gleamed from a list of results and a league table.

The two most important links:

http://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1

http://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity
 
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For those who don’t like the charts a single stat can be found at: https://www.probs4.club/api/doomed
 
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1705005893196.png
Using https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4 and removing the other teams (sorry about the colour, just auto generated) City's chance of relegation is now 41.7%, has been as high as 52.0%
 
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Joined
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Last one from me tonight

1705006781198.png
From https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LPOPl

The 50/50 point (50%) for relegation is at 47 points, with a possible range (excluding below 10% and above 90%) of 44 - 50 points.
So 24 points from 21 remaining games gives about 90% chance of avoiding the drop.
 

BigBanker

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Always enjoy this thread. Thanks G-O-T.
 

Pete Martin (CTID)

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For those who don’t like the charts a single stat can be found at: https://www.probs4.club/api/doomed
I am quite buoyed up that this is currently below 50%!!
 
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Using https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4 and removing the other teams (sorry about the colour, just auto generated) City's chance of relegation is now 41.7%, has been as high as 52.0%
Sorry that should have said "has been as high as 59.9%" ... was reading the wrong datapoint.
 

BigBanker

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I am quite buoyed up that this is currently below 50%!!
The algorithms haven't seen us play 😂
 

BigBanker

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Sorry that should have said "has been as high as 59.9%" ... was reading the wrong datapoint.
Sort it out Tynesdalethorpe!
 

paperclip

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Great work as always G-o-T, I love this sort of stuff!
 
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