Politics Today

Alistair20000

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Esher & Walton borders Twickenham and Kingston & Surbiton, two Lib Dem strongholds. Lib Dem S.W. London contagion is creeping outwards. My information is that the Tories are resigned to soon losing another near by seat, Wimbledon.

Raab would do well to decamp to a safer seat or he could be the big casualty of the next General Election.
 

Greyhound

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I hope my house will be in the Exmouth constituency, which looks a possibility from the E & E map. Much handier for a day at the seaside. ;)
 

Alistair20000

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So the University there is a new thing? I swear I drove past one there in the mid nineties.
Correct but the student population has mushroomed 24% since 2016 alone. Cannot find any earlier figures. I don’t suppose you drove past all the student accommodation we see now back in the mid nineties ?

Exeter is like Canterbury which was rock sold blue when I was at Uni there. Now lost to Labour for ever, unless we cut down university numbers.
 

Hermann

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Correct but the student population has mushroomed 24% since 2016 alone. Cannot find any earlier figures. I don’t suppose you drove past all the student accommodation we see now back in the mid nineties ?

Exeter is like Canterbury which was rock sold blue when I was at Uni there. Now lost to Labour for ever, unless we cut down university numbers.
I'm not sure the university is making the difference. As I have said (twice now) every ward except one voted Labour in the locals.
 

angelic upstart

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How many of them vote in elections though?

Incidentally, I think Exeter would be red regardless of the ballooning student population.
 

Egg

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How many of them vote in elections though?

Incidentally, I think Exeter would be red regardless of the ballooning student population.
I agree. All the more so as I'd imagine a significant number of students will choose to vote at their home address.
 

angelic upstart

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Please provide workings
Okay, John Hannam was first voted into Exeter in 1970, the election turnout was 48k* he got 21,680 votes (45%)
By 1979, he had increased his vote share to 48% he subsequently lost vote share election on election until he retired (I think) and Adrian Rogers was the conservative candidate up against Ben Bradshaw in 1997. We may recall at the time Ben had all sorts of “hilarious” nicknames aimed his way as he was openly gay, something which at the time was still frowned upon in some circles. Anyway, Bradshaw resoundingly won with 29k votes and 47.5% of the votes. He increased this the following election, this is prior to the large influx of university students and evidence that the conservatives were becoming less popular, and Labours support was growing.

In more recent times the conservatives are slowly growing their vote election by election, and given that the Greens are fairly popular in Exeter when Bradshaw stands down, I can see Exeter voting conservative. The reality is, he’s a popular local MP who (im someone who’s never lived in Exeter) does a good job at local level, the party seems well looked after at council level across the city, so see no reason why people wouldn’t vote for him.

Hope this helps.


* all figures marked with k are rounded down.
 
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