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Alistair20000

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You’re probably right, but some second home owners probably do the same too. It would rarely make much of a difference.
2017 was the GE when the Electoral Commission expressed concern about double voting and the students were of course very much “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” flag bearers.

Big increase in Ben Bradshaw’s vote share that time. Plus15.6%.

P.S. I am deflecting you from the Music Quiz Thread ;)
 

Alistair20000

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Okay, John Hannam was first voted into Exeter in 1970, the election turnout was 48k* he got 21,680 votes (45%)
By 1979, he had increased his vote share to 48% he subsequently lost vote share election on election until he retired (I think) and Adrian Rogers was the conservative candidate up against Ben Bradshaw in 1997. We may recall at the time Ben had all sorts of “hilarious” nicknames aimed his way as he was openly gay, something which at the time was still frowned upon in some circles. Anyway, Bradshaw resoundingly won with 29k votes and 47.5% of the votes. He increased this the following election, this is prior to the large influx of university students and evidence that the conservatives were becoming less popular, and Labours support was growing.

In more recent times the conservatives are slowly growing their vote election by election, and given that the Greens are fairly popular in Exeter when Bradshaw stands down, I can see Exeter voting conservative. The reality is, he’s a popular local MP who (im someone who’s never lived in Exeter) does a good job at local level, the party seems well looked after at council level across the city, so see no reason why people wouldn’t vote for him.

Hope this helps.


* all figures marked with k are rounded down.
Well argued and you make some good points.

In 1997 there was a huge swing to Labour everywhere and unusually most of the seats the Tories lost were to swings above 10%. No surprise it went Labour then especially as Adrian Rogers was a disastrous choice of candidate. Anne Jobson and Peter Cox who followed were weak candidates too.

From 2010 onwards the Tories have been treading water at 33-35% of the vote despite swings to the Tories nationally and I think the student vote comes into this. I see little prospect of them winning the seat even when Ben B hangs up his bicycle and even if the Greens make headway. Even the most popular constituency MP has a personal vote in a few hundreds.

The seat is hard to analyse with a strong Liberal/SDP vote since the 1970’s that has fluctuated a lot between them and Labour so that Lab/Con switches are not easy to identify.

Would be interesting to find a learned text on the constituency.

P.S. if you are ever on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire and the £1 million question is which constituency was the first Tory gain in the 1970 General Election, tell Clarkson Exeter before the choices are offered :)
 

Spoonz Red E

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2017 was the GE when the Electoral Commission expressed concern about double voting and the students were of course very much “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” flag bearers.

Big increase in Ben Bradshaw’s vote share that time. Plus15.6%.

P.S. I am deflecting you from the Music Quiz Thread ;)
If the Electoral Commission were concerned it would be the simplest of jobs to check for double votes.
Could have been done in a couple of ticks :cool:

As the heavens didn't break and paddy wagons weren't spotted on campus I doubt it was an issue.
 

Alistair20000

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If the Electoral Commission were concerned it would be the simplest of jobs to check for double votes.
Could have been done in a couple of ticks :cool:

As the heavens didn't break and paddy wagons weren't spotted on campus I doubt it was an issue.
It was stated that identifying cases from the paper records was very difficult.
 

Mr Jinx

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Correct but the student population has mushroomed 24% since 2016 alone. Cannot find any earlier figures. I don’t suppose you drove past all the student accommodation we see now back in the mid nineties ?

Exeter is like Canterbury which was rock sold blue when I was at Uni there. Now lost to Labour for ever, unless we cut down university numbers.
You could say Blair was pretty smart then by:

a) increasing the university population from what was 1 in 10 before he took office, to nearly one in two today.
b) increasing immigration from just above net zero before he took office to over 300k today.

Few of a) and b) will be Tory voters.

And despite that, Labour still lose badly (and look like continuing to do so).
 

Alistair20000

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You could say Blair was pretty smart then by:

a) increasing the university population from what was 1 in 10 before he took office, to nearly one in two today.
b) increasing immigration from just above net zero before he took office to over 300k today.

Few of a) and b) will be Tory voters.

And despite that, Labour still lose badly (and look like continuing to do so).
Yep the Reverend Blair was a shrewd political operator, just like the slippery Harold Wilson. The only two elected Labour PM’s post WWII apart from Attlee of course.
 

Spoonz Red E

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It was stated that identifying cases from the paper records was very difficult.
Fair enough but I can't think why.
When I vote they tick my name on the list as having done so - it should be a simple name check against some names who are on more than one roll unless I'm missing something.
 
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