International relations thread

[Phil Sayers]

The war could last ten years but not at anywhere near the current level of intensity. At this current rate Russia simply will not have a functioning army, or equipment for said army, by the time the year is out (and possibly much sooner). Whether Ukraine still does will depend on how much they can capture and how much they are gifted, manpower is less of a problem for them due to the sheer numbers who are willing to fight. All eyes now on whether Putin declares a mass-mobilisation - he badly needs to be able to deploy more troops to the battlefield (even incompetent ones are better than none) but doing so would be fraught with massive political risks.

 

[IndoMike]

Not before he destroys the lives of millions.Knocking down the infrastructure of a country which will cost a fortune to rebuild. Causing misery to millions who just want to live in peace.Watching the news this morning almost brought me to tears. A young nurse who only wanted to help others had both her legs and some fingers blown off by a Russian land mine .And she got married like that and was trying to just live her life bless her. No , on reflection a bullet in the head for the murderer would be too good.A mammoth heart attack wouldn’t go amiss either. What drives these gits I wonder?

Every single person who has had to leave their home, seen their city bombed to a pulp, been forcibly transported from their home town to Russia,
been tortured, raped, brutalised and killed is a victim. It has been hard to watch it unfold while the UN and various countries have more or less sat on the sidelines, wringing their hands and imo over-worried about a nuclear attack by Russia if they did anything.
When the Russians started moving their troops to the Ukraine border Ukraine should have invited Western forces to the country under the pretence of military training. If the West had gotten their feet in the door first it would have been much harder for Russia to invade.
Biden had been saying for a long time that Russia would invade. He was right : most others were wrong or deceiving themselves.

 

[DB9]

Not before he destroys the lives of millions.Knocking down the infrastructure of a country which will cost a fortune to rebuild. Causing misery to millions who just want to live in peace.Watching the news this morning almost brought me to tears. A young nurse who only wanted to help others had both her legs and some fingers blown off by a Russian land mine .And she got married like that and was trying to just live her life bless her. No , on reflection a bullet in the head for the murderer would be too good.A mammoth heart attack wouldn’t go amiss either. What drives these gits I wonder?

It is sad and does make you so angry to see this is happening in Europe in the 21st Century but Ukraine will be re-built, The money will pour in and it will rise to be a great country again but in the East in the Donbass the Russian and their Self proclaimed allies will rule over a charred, shattered area while claiming a "Victory" those that live their will wonder why does victory look like the gates of hell and see the rest of Ukraine being re-built and thrive as a European country, Not A Russian satilite state that area will become, They'll have their own re-building programme but it will be drab, Soviet style, poorly constructed and their only income will be from Moscow because no one else will touch them, Not even China because although some say they've been too quiet, The Chinese will go where they can make real money. Those that are left in the Donbass will get unsettled and that could also be a big roblem for Putin because he won't be able to stop pictures and reports on how the rest of Ukraine is doing, Just like the old East and West Germany.

 

[Phil Sayers]

It is sad and does make you so angry to see this is happening in Europe in the 21st Century but Ukraine will be re-built, The money will pour in and it will rise to be a great country again but in the East in the Donbass the Russian and their Self proclaimed allies will rule over a charred, shattered area while claiming a "Victory" those that live their will wonder why does victory look like the gates of hell and see the rest of Ukraine being re-built and thrive as a European country, Not A Russian satilite state that area will become, They'll have their own re-building programme but it will be drab, Soviet style, poorly constructed and their only income will be from Moscow because no one else will touch them, Not even China because although some say they've been too quiet, The Chinese will go where they can make real money. Those that are left in the Donbass will get unsettled and that could also be a big roblem for Putin because he won't be able to stop pictures and reports on how the rest of Ukraine is doing, Just like the old East and West Germany.

Increasingly my thinking is that the odds are Ukraine will actually recapture all of the Donbass. Russia will continue to make slow advances for a while, then those advances will grind to a complete halt and then Ukraine will start to push them back as more and more heavy weaponry flows to Ukraine while Russia's heavy weaponry is charred wreckage on the battlefield. I may well be wrong but that is how I am currently seeing it. The major issue I see arising is whether Ukraine then goes for Crimea - Liz Truss seemingly said that was the goal the other day but I think that is the point at which Putin really might contemplate going nuclear - he sees it as sovereign Russian territory.

 

[DB9]

Increasingly my thinking is that the odds are Ukraine will actually recapture all of the Donbass. Russia will continue to make slow advances for a while, then those advances will grind to a complete halt and then Ukraine will start to push them back as more and more heavy weaponry flows to Ukraine while Russia's heavy weaponry is charred wreckage on the battlefield. I may well be wrong but that is how I am currently seeing it. The major issue I see arising is whether Ukraine then goes for Crimea - Liz Truss seemingly said that was the goal the other day but I think that is the point at which Putin really might contemplate going nuclear - he sees it as sovereign Russian territory.

Going Nuclear in Crimea or anywhere in Ukraine is a own goal for Russia and Putin, The fallout won't just stay in Ukraine it will flow over to Russia and cause untold deaths to Russians themselves, He won't get away with saying this was for the good of Russia while some of his people die of radiation sickness plus if he does unleash a Nuclear attack, Those that are staying on the fenc or supporting him so far will want nothing to do with him, Even the Chinese in their Constitusion have a clause where only an attack on China would cause them to use theirs, Not in an offensive way.

 

[Banksy]

DB , all I hope personally is that Putin keels over soon because even another year of this misery perpetrated by him and his evil plans is a year too long for the people of Ukraine.And how many more countries will he try it on , next stop Finland? There is no love in the man whatever I’m afraid , don’t think I’d want to die as one of the most hated people on earth ,but then if you’re bonkers guess you wouldn’t even think about that.

 

[DB9]

DB , all I hope personally is that Putin keels over soon because even another year of this misery perpetrated by him and his evil plans is a year too long for the people of Ukraine.And how many more countries will he try it on , next stop Finland? There is no love in the man whatever I’m afraid , don’t think I’d want to die as one of the most hated people on earth ,but then if you’re bonkers guess you wouldn’t even think about that.

Thing is as said before he's evil but not bonkers, Personally i think that the Ukraine invasion has handed him a big bloodied nose that he wasn't expecting, He thought it would be over by the first weekend of the invasion, He thought NATO and other countries were so weak and divided after the Afghanistan debacle that we wouldn't be able to get a united front in supposrting Ukraine but he has done the exact opposite, While Afghanistan was a nightmare for NATO, It recovered so quick to unite against Russian's invasion and is more united than any other time since the Cold War, Finland and Sweden had no intention of joining NATO before all this, Now they are joining so he's expanded the border with NATO from about 60km to over 1000km and now he knows if he sets one foot on a NATO country he'll know about it, Also his ability to wage war on another country, Even not in NATO has seriously been undermind and for his forces to recover their losses will take years, Not matter the bullsh*t propaganda the Kremlin spews out. This whole "Special Military Operation" has done the exact opposite to what he thought would happen, Huge losses, Economy tanking, International standing at zero, Those things matter in the 21st Century

 

[Spanks]

bullsh*t properganda

His gander is far from proper, DB

 

[DB9]

His gander is far from proper, DB

Sorry Spanks, My bad spelling, Corrected now.

 

[Spanks]

Sorry Spanks, My bad spelling, Corrected now.

Wasn't correcting spelling DB. Wouldn't be that rude. Just a light hearted tweak on what you wrote.