International relations thread

[IndoMike]

Thank you. Sorry not to keep up

 

[DB9]

Now, Now Mike, No eye rolling.......Yet.

 

[IndoMike]

I agree Mike.

it's a human response to be angry when a country and its citizens are being blown to pieces. The temptation is to call for retribution and fight fire with fire.

Unfortunately this approach, will lead to further escalation, increased possibility of spreading to other countries, a nuclear strike, and/or ww3.

But for various reasons you have to confront aggression full on. You can't give in to any kind of blackmail or threats, for moral reasons and for reality reasons : Putin will only
be encouraged to go further if you appease him. Regarding nuclear war, many posters on these boards have defended our possession of nuclear arms as a deterrent ; we have to hope that they are. And what would Putin gain by setting off a nuclear war? There would no victory, no parades. I'm convinced Putin is just bluffing and trying to scare a few leaders
into backing off. Divide and rule.

 

[Suzi & The Banned Cheese]

It may do some or all of these things, that is a risk to be carefully managed and mitigated against. Right now it is not doing those things - instead it is steadily looking more and more likely that Ukraine will pull off a military victory that nobody at all (except themselves) imagined might be possible. Once the grieving is done Ukraine will be left with a unified nation, tempered in the fire and with a national legend which to them dwarves what the Battle of Britain is to us. Russia meanwhile will slink off broken, humiliated and in no position to try anything like this again for a great many years.

Thinking that Putins Russia will simply slink home is a Fairytale. Russia is more likely to resport to chemical/nuclear strikes than admit defeat.

 

[Alistair20000]

But for various reasons you have to confront aggression full on. You can't give in to any kind of blackmail or threats, for moral reasons and for reality reasons : Putin will only
be encouraged to go further if you appease him. Regarding nuclear war, many posters on these boards have defended our possession of nuclear arms as a deterrent ; we have to hope that they are. And what would Putin gain by setting off a nuclear war? There would no victory, no parades. I'm convinced Putin is just bluffing and trying to scare a few leaders
into backing off. Divide and rule.

Indo

I understand your reasoning here and everything in history says the bully has to be faced down. The longer it is left the harder it is in the end. I wish I was brave enough to support what you say.

My head says there are decent Russian leaders who would stop Putin from pressing the N button. However it is a huge call.

Planet of the Apes (1968) scares me.

 

[Phil Sayers]

Thinking that Putins Russia will simply slink home is a Fairytale. Russia is more likely to resport to chemical/nuclear strikes than admit defeat.

The Soviet Union (a far more powerful entity than modern day Russia) accepted defeat in Afghanistan rather than using nukes to try to change things as did the US in Vietnam. I do think it is quite possible that Putin will use Chemical Weapons because 1) they would be militarily useful and 2) it would be a way of signalling to the West that he is willing to do things that we are not. Indeed there are reports that Russia has already used CW (in a low key symbolic way to focus point 2) when Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich attended a summit. However, it is unlikely that CW used in a limited way would tip the scales here and if used en-masse against cities it still would probably not be decisive and would lead to a very severe international response.

With regards nukes they certainly could tip the scales (e.g nuking Lviv would probably lead to immediate Ukrainian surrender to avoid more cities being nuked) but I just don't see it as at all likely (save for potentially Ukraine seeking to take back Crimea). Firstly, it is 50/50 whether the Russian military would carry out the order or just shoot Putin instead. Those are not odds Putin would like. Secondly, if they do carry out the order, it is 50/50 whether it would lead to immediate full scale war with NATO. A war Russia would lose if it stays conventional and everyone would lose if it goes nuclear. Again, not odds Putin would be liking. Even if NATO does not declare war, regime change in Russia would become an immediate strategic priority and a determined NATO, with near unlimited funding dedicated to achieving that goal, could probably manage it in fairly short order via fair means or foul. Again, not a situation Putin would wish to find himself in.

 

[Mr Jinx]

And so Finland will be announcing its NATO membership bid next week.

It also gets 94% of its energy from Russia.

Will be interesting to see how that pans out!

 

[Suzi & The Banned Cheese]

The Soviet Union (a far more powerful entity than modern day Russia) accepted defeat in Afghanistan rather than using nukes to try to change things as did the US in Vietnam. I do think it is quite possible that Putin will use Chemical Weapons because 1) they would be militarily useful and 2) it would be a way of signalling to the West that he is willing to do things that we are not. Indeed there are reports that Russia has already used CW (in a low key symbolic way to focus point 2) when Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich attended a summit. However, it is unlikely that CW used in a limited way would tip the scales here and if used en-masse against cities it still would probably not be decisive and would lead to a very severe international response.

With regards nukes they certainly could tip the scales (e.g nuking Lviv would probably lead to immediate Ukrainian surrender to avoid more cities being nuked) but I just don't see it as at all likely (save for potentially Ukraine seeking to take back Crimea). Firstly, it is 50/50 whether the Russian military would carry out the order or just shoot Putin instead. Those are not odds Putin would like. Secondly, if they do carry out the order, it is 50/50 whether it would lead to immediate full scale war with NATO. A war Russia would lose if it stays conventional and everyone would lose if it goes nuclear. Again, not odds Putin would be liking. Even if NATO does not declare war, regime change in Russia would become an immediate strategic priority and a determined NATO, with near unlimited funding dedicated to achieving that goal, could probably manage it in fairly short order via fair means or foul. Again, not a situation Putin would wish to find himself in.

All depends if you believe that Putin is acting rationally.

 

[IndoMike]

Indo

I understand your reasoning here and everything in history says the bully has to be faced down. The longer it is left the harder it is in the end. I wish I was brave enough to support what you say.

My head says there are decent Russian leaders who would stop Putin from pressing the N button. However it is a huge call.

Planet of the Apes (1968) scares me.

As long as Putin is leader of Russia the risk will always exist, but what does he gain by starting a nuclear war? He is a man on a mission, but I don't think he's mad, or at least not mad enough to start a nuclear war. He's playing poker and bluffing with that nuclear threat. Initially it worked, but I believe the West is starting to realise that it's an empty threat. It's even possible that on the hotline between Russian and Western military leaders there is an understanding that neither side will press the button first. My guess is that he will be removed from power,, one way or another, by his generals in an agreement whereby sanctions are lifted and the generals will not be subject to any war crime tribunals.

 

[Grecian2K]

The Tories have some consolation though.

While he's busy campaigning to be next Mayor of Kyiv at least BooBoo's not even further damaging the hopes of their own local candidates.