The End of Season Run In

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Not going to create a probability thread this season because I'm not going to publish any charts/graphs but will put a few tables of percentages ...

first one ... After Friday's games % chance of autos / play off etc.

				auto-P	Playoff	oth-Top	oth-Bottom Relegation
[COLOR="#008080"]1	Accrington .....	99.8%	0.2%			
2	Luton Town .....	89.7%	10.3%	0.0%		
3	Wycombe ........	61.3%	37.5%	1.1%	[/COLOR]	
[COLOR="#0000CD"]4	Coventry City ..	19.2%	69.0%	11.8%		
[B]5	Exeter .........	13.2%	70.7%	16.1%	0.0%[/B]	
6	Notts County ...	9.3%	71.2%	19.5%		
7	Lincoln ........	4.4%	53.1%	42.4%[/COLOR]	
[COLOR="#000000"]8	Mansfield ......	2.6%	50.2%	47.2%	0.1%	
9	Swindon Town ...	0.4%	22.4%	76.0%	1.3%	
10	Carlisle Utd ...	0.1%	13.5%	84.5%	1.9%	
11	Colchester .....	0.0%	1.6%	84.6%	13.8%	
12	Newport ........		0.2%	54.5%	45.3%	[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#808080"]13	Cambridge Utd ..		0.1%	42.6%	57.3%	
14	Crawley ........			16.2%	83.8%	
15	Cheltenham .....			2.3%	97.7%	
16	Stevenage ......			0.9%	99.1%	0.1%
17	Yeovil Town ....			0.2%	99.1%	0.7%
18	Morecambe ......			0.1%	99.0%	0.9%
19	Crewe Alexandra 			0.1%	99.4%	0.5%
20	Forest Green ...				94.8%	5.2%
21	Port Vale ......			0.0%	97.5%	2.5%
22	Grimsby ........				57.8%	42.2%[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF0000"]23	Chesterfield ...				33.5%	66.5%
24	Barnet .........				18.6%	81.4%[/COLOR]

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Pts: Total
(gained/games)	UP	playoff	top-half
66 (0/7)	0%	0%	100%
67 (1/7)	0%	0%	100%
68 (2/7)	0%	0%	98%
69 (3/7)	0%	2%	98%
70 (4/7)	0%	7%	93%
71 (5/7)	0%	13%	87%
72 (6/7)	0%	27%	73%
[B]73 (7/7)	0%	47%	53%[/B]
74 (8/7)	0%	72%	28%
75 (9/7)	0%	89%	11%
76 (10/7)	0%	96%	4%
[B]77 (11/7)	1%	98%	1%[/B]
78 (12/7)	5%	95%	0%
79 (13/7)	13%	87%	0%
80 (14/7)	27%	73%	0%
[B]81 (15/7)	46%	54%	0%[/B]
82 (16/7)	65%	35%	0%
83 (17/7)	74%	26%	0%
84 (18/7)	91%	9%	0%
85 (19/7)	94%	6%	0%
87 (21/7)	96%	4%	0%

Above shows city's chance of automatic/playoff or not depending on points obtained.
Seven more points (2wins 1draws 4defeats) from seven games closest point to 50/50 in gaining a playoff place.
11 points (3wins 2draws 2defeats) as good as guarantees a playoff place (1% chance of autos & also 1% chance of missing out)
15 points (5wins 2defeats) close to 50/50 for automatic promotion.

 

[IndoMike]

Thanks. Good work. Looks about right, although I think Chesterfield might catch Grimsby.

 

[IndoMike]

These are the games that might affect our position:
Accrington v Notts County
Carlisle v Lincoln City
Coventry v Yeovil
Crawley v Swindon
Luton v Mansfield
Wycombe v Grimsby

 

[IndoMike]

These are the games that might affect our position:
Accrington v Notts County
Carlisle v Lincoln City
Coventry v Yeovil
Crawley v Swindon
Luton v Mansfield
Wycombe v Grimsby

Moved to MDT....

 

[Sexton Blake]

5 more wins and we will be there no matter what others do. As we have seen only today the craziest of results can and do happen. Who in their right mind would have predicted Coventry 2 Yeovil Six and their next game is home to Wycombe.

Wycombe then have two difficult games Lincoln (A) Accrington (H). The former will still be fighting hard to try and ensure they can claim a playoff place and the latter to finish as Champions. Although having said that Lincoln do still have a chance of the autos as like us they have a game in hand and are on 67 points only 2 less than us.

Yeovil have done us a massive favour today and could play a huge part in helping us to make the autos having to play not only Wycombe but Luton and Mansfield at Yeovil and away at Accrington, Notts County and Lincoln.

 

[John William]

5 more wins and we will be there no matter what others do. As we have seen only today the craziest of results can and do happen. Who in their right mind would have predicted Coventry 2 Yeovil Six and their next game is home to Wycombe.

Wycombe then have two difficult games Lincoln (A) Accrington (H). The former will still be fighting hard to try and ensure they can claim a playoff place and the latter to finish as Champions. Although having said that Lincoln do still have a chance of the autos as like us they have a game in hand and are on 67 points only 2 less than us.

Yeovil have done us a massive favour today and could play a huge part in helping us to make the autos having to play not only Wycombe but Luton and Mansfield at Yeovil and away at Accrington, Notts County and Lincoln.

Not quite right for the autos, if Wycombe win all their games we can't catch them.

Also as their GD is 11 better than ours they can probably draw one game and beat us on GD.

 

[grecIAN Harris]

Not quite right for the autos, if Wycombe win all their games we can't catch them.

Also as their GD is 11 better than ours they can probably draw one game and beat us on GD.

And the likelyhood of that happening isn't very high as they've got to go to Lincoln and host Accrington before the end of the season.

 

[Anonymous]

Accrington are basically promoted now, just a matter of whether they finish top or not.

Luton could effectively seal promotion next weekend depending on our result at Cambridge and assuming they get 3 points at huish park.

The only team we have a chance of catching is Wycombe but it's not in our hands.

 

[Colesman Ballz]

Accrington are basically promoted now, just a matter of whether they finish top or not.

Luton could effectively seal promotion next weekend depending on our result at Cambridge and assuming they get 3 points at huish park.

The only team we have a chance of catching is Wycombe but it's not in our hands.

We have a game in hand on Wycombe, which happens at the weekend. It seems vital for us to take all three points at Cambridge and close the gap to just 2pts and heap the pressure on them. With Lincoln also without a game, and Notts Co and Coventry playing each other, this could be a very big weekend for us, UTC !