What date will we be back watching live football at SJP Thread.

[malcolms]

What it might be as a percentage of the population is irrelevant to whether or not we might run out of hospital beds.

South West could run out of COVID hospital beds in 2 weeks

It comes as the government considers imposing a month long national lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus

www.devonlive.com

In any case, I've got an A-level in maths so I'm okay there thanks. If, however, you could provide an explanation as to why the creator of this graph has chosen to extract the figures for people in ICUs with COVID, from the ONS website, and present them as the figures for people in hospitals with COVID that would be extremely helpful.

It's all smoke and mirrors on both sides...You extract the figures you want and they extract the one they want and you both present them as facts.

 

[Egg]

Actually it's not a high percentage compared to the normal for late November and many of these people would presumably have been in hospital anyway for the other health issues they face. Every year we get stories that our hospitals are overflowing with winter peaks and every year we get by. I'd be more focused on staffing availability, you could have 10,000 beds but if there were not enough people to staff them it's be meaningless.

ps

Latest numbers from gov.uk - 968 in hospital with CV in the SW of whom 70 are in beds capable of mechanical ventilation.

To be clear, this is from a pal of mine who's a consultant at a hospital in Liverpool so I'm not suggesting the situation is the same here, but that it ought to provide food for thought:

"I barely remember a winter the Liverpool hospitals weren’t overrun but usually December to January (except Xmas when there’s less routine work) but this is certainly a little earlier than usual. About a quarter of the acute beds between the main two hospitals in Liverpool are occupied by Covid patients (albeit many, but not all, are the frail elderly you might expect to see admitted later in winter anyway). Those still in acute roles may see it differently but both main hospitals have suspended all but urgent and cancer surgery and I’d never seen that in October before. Worse still, about a third of beds taken by Covid +ve patients at the moment."

And this is from another pal, who's a consultant in Manchester:

"Manchester has pretty much stopped all planned non cancer surgery across the board because of a lack of beds. That occasionally happens in one hospital for a day or two, but this is currently 3 out of 5 of the big hospitals and they’ve been that way for a week now. In the 15yrs I’ve been in Manchester we’ve never come anywhere close to this and it’s getting worse.

"We’re a cancer only site and we’re now only able to operate on urgent cases, not the ones that can wait. This has never happened before."

 

[John William]

What it might be as a percentage of the population is irrelevant to whether or not we might run out of hospital beds.

South West could run out of COVID hospital beds in 2 weeks

It comes as the government considers imposing a month long national lockdown to halt the spread of coronavirus

www.devonlive.com

This story is from 31st October and is based on a modelling exercise now completely discredited. The numbers are worrying and I entirely accept what your contacts say about the Northwest but lets stick to facts and numbers that are up-to-date whenever we can.

 

[Egg]

This story is from 31st October and is based on a modelling exercise now completely discredited. The numbers are worrying and I entirely accept what your contacts say about the Northwest but lets stick to facts and numbers that are up-to-date whenever we can.

Don't disagree. I was merely seeking to reinforce the point that the percentage of the population which has COVID is largely irrelevant to the pressure the virus is putting the healthcare system under, rather than make any points about the specifics of this story.

 

[malcolms]

Don't disagree. I was merely seeking to reinforce the point that the percentage of the population which has COVID is largely irrelevant to the pressure the virus is putting the healthcare system under, rather than make any points about the specifics of this story.

Hospitals are there to care for sick people. I think the healthcare sector is coping with what is a relatively normal winter in terms of numbers...My neighbour works at several of the large hospitals in South London and he confirmed this. In fact, he said because of "overly bureaucratic Covid protocols" (his words) they were, in fact operating at lower levels than normal.

 

[Boyo]

I think the healthcare sector is coping with what is a relatively normal winter in terms of numbers...

We probably disagree on whether the numbers in hospital are relatively normal, but I think we can agree that they would be significantly worse if all the precautions, social distancing, lockdown measures had not been in place.

 

[Grecian Max]

To be clear, this is from a pal of mine who's a consultant at a hospital in Liverpool so I'm not suggesting the situation is the same here, but that it ought to provide food for thought:

"I barely remember a winter the Liverpool hospitals weren’t overrun but usually December to January (except Xmas when there’s less routine work) but this is certainly a little earlier than usual. About a quarter of the acute beds between the main two hospitals in Liverpool are occupied by Covid patients (albeit many, but not all, are the frail elderly you might expect to see admitted later in winter anyway). Those still in acute roles may see it differently but both main hospitals have suspended all but urgent and cancer surgery and I’d never seen that in October before. Worse still, about a third of beds taken by Covid +ve patients at the moment."

And this is from another pal, who's a consultant in Manchester:

"Manchester has pretty much stopped all planned non cancer surgery across the board because of a lack of beds. That occasionally happens in one hospital for a day or two, but this is currently 3 out of 5 of the big hospitals and they’ve been that way for a week now. In the 15yrs I’ve been in Manchester we’ve never come anywhere close to this and it’s getting worse.

"We’re a cancer only site and we’re now only able to operate on urgent cases, not the ones that can wait. This has never happened before."

Why you talking about Liverpool and Manchester in regards to watching football at SJP?

 

[Egg]

Why you talking about Liverpool and Manchester in regards to watching football at SJP?

I'm not. I'm talking about the pressure the healthcare system is under from COVID, as a result of the discussion which ensued after you shared a graph which conflated the number of people with COVID in ICU beds with the number of people in hospital with COVID.

 

[Grecian Max]

I'm not. I'm talking about the pressure the healthcare system is under from COVID, as a result of the discussion which ensued after you shared a graph which conflated the number of people with COVID in ICU beds with the number of people in hospital with COVID.

The reason I posted that graph and the context of the article is sat within (Telegraph yesterday), was not to downplay the bed situation at all but to discuss the possibility of Exeter being in Tier 1 and subsequent knock on effect of that on ECFC (with the updated restrictions). You've gone right off on one, like I've seen people do on Twitter. It's the new Brexit, people have lost their minds. This is a thread about when we can get back to SJP, not on the government handling of the crisis! They were comparing through various charts the situation across the country specifically as to which tier each part of the country may fall into on Thursday. The point of the article wasn't an opinion piece or Guardianista meltdown, it was an analytical piece on the tiered system only.

 

[Alistair20000]

The reason I posted that graph and the context of the article is sat within (Telegraph yesterday), was not to downplay the bed situation at all but to discuss the possibility of Exeter being in Tier 1 and subsequent knock on effect of that on ECFC (with the updated restrictions). You've gone right off on one, like I've seen people do on Twitter. It's the new Brexit, people have lost their minds. This is a thread about when we can get back to SJP, not on the government handling of the crisis! They were comparing through various charts the situation across the country specifically as to which tier each part of the country may fall into on Thursday. The point of the article wasn't an opinion piece or Guardianista meltdown, it was an analytical piece on the tiered system only.

Yes it would be nice to focus on that. Other threads available for general Covid and political discussions.