UK Lockdown

[Legohead]

Another example of how this whole thing is about risk.

If you are employed by Scarborough Council as a public loo cleaner, do you want to go back to work or remain at home - furloughed? Human nature says probably the latter. Your Union would probably say that unless Scarborough Council can 'guarantee your safety', you shouldn't go back to work. How can Scarborough Council do this? They can't. They might give you more PPE, stronger chemicals, revised procedures - but they can't make it '100%' safe.

Is it in the interests of society as a whole that you go back to work, and is the impact of you not going back to work worse in terms of public heath / benefit than you being at work?

I know we take different views about schools, but it is the same side of the coin. As are dentists, tip-operators, physiotherapists... the list is endless of jobs and companies we want to be operating but for every loud voice saying they should, someone else will say it's 'not safe'.

Yes it's a fair point Paul. I think that at some point soon we have to just accept this virus, accept the risk and get on with life. If we have to live like this until next year for example or beyond then not only will the economy be dead in the water but a lot of people just won't see the point in purely existing. Life is for living and experiencing things and the longer life goes on with us doing neither, the more risk many of us will be prepared to accept just to be able to have a life again.

I do think that sending schools back now is mad, especially when kids are off for the summer holidays soon anyway but come September, i'm fully expecting a full return to schools and my kid will be going - virus or no virus and i would expect teachers to either do the same or resign. If we still in the same boat come September then fair enough. We learn to live with the virus and must get on with it by then.

 

[RedPaul]

On the face of it a ludicrous situation I agree.
It didn't have to be this way.

We need some consent building and collaborative decision making which has worked recently in part.

Does the virus affect high horses?

Agreed but I don't see how widespread consent building happens when so many are opposed to everything the Government says and does, whipped up by a sensationalist (on all sides) media. If the Gov makes 'sensible' proposals and they are called out, they then make 'ludicrous ones'.

Not sure if the high horse applies to me, apologies if that's how my view came across.

 

[Legohead]

Lego. The most sensible summaries of where we are medically that I have consistently read throughout this crisis are in Private Eye, believe it or not. They are written by a Doctor (pseudonmym M.D) and separate out facts and conjecture in a balanced way. PE can never be accused of being a Tory, or establishment rag, but whilst heavily critical of the care home and PPE fiasco and the ongoing lack of the much needed track, trace, isolate system - generally the tone is not scathing.

In this week's issue for example it sets out that the risk of dying from it for the under 14's is 1 in 5,337,266 compared to 1 in 81 (yes 1 in 81) for the Over 90's. U14's are more likely to be killed by lightning.

There is advice on how to avoid catching it - avoid enclosed spaces for long periods, and as well as coughing and sneexing, singing or loud shouting can spread it more greatly - and if you do catch it, how to reduce the impact. Essentially be as healthy as you can, given you can't do anything about your age.

Well worth £2 IMHO

I bought the latest edition yesterday from the shop. It's quite a funny read actually. I love the satire in the cartoons too. I'm not that interested in politics tbh nor am I knowledgable about politics and current affairs but I found it was just enough for me. Not too intellectual and easy to follow.

 

[arthur]

Angela Rayners diary......

 

[Spoonz Red E]

Agreed but I don't see how widespread consent building happens when so many are opposed to everything the Government says and does, whipped up by a sensationalist (on all sides) media. If the Gov makes 'sensible' proposals and they are called out, they then make 'ludicrous ones'.

Not sure if the high horse applies to me, apologies if that's how my view came across.

Oh no, not at all.

I was referring to the for-and-against horsemen of the apocalypse we are seeing too much of in various media and parliamentary circles the last few days.

 

[Legohead]

Angela Rayners diary......

Yep. Read that. Keir Starmer love in .

 

[RedPaul]

Yes it's a fair point Paul. I think that at some point soon we have to just accept this virus, accept the risk and get on with life. If we have to live like this until next year for example or beyond then not only will the economy be dead in the water but a lot of people just won't see the point in purely existing. Life is for living and experiencing things and the longer life goes on with us doing neither, the more risk many of us will be prepared to accept just to be able to have a life again.

I do think that sending schools back now is mad, especially when kids are off for the summer holidays soon anyway but come September, i'm fully expecting a full return to schools and my kid will be going - virus or no virus and i would expect teachers to either do the same or resign. If we still in the same boat come September then fair enough. We learn to live with the virus and must get on with it by then.

Report in the Mail (sorry) that CV will be completely gone from the UK by 30th September, according to Singapore scientists and modellers...
Would be nice to think so!

 

[Legohead]

Report in the Mail (sorry) that CV will be completely gone from the UK by 30th September, according to Singapore scientists and modellers...
Would be nice to think so!

That's a bit specific isn't it?

I read one bloke the other day called Karl something or other from the WHO and he claimed CV19 would burn out by the autumn and then another bloke Patrick Vallance claiming we could live with CV19 for several years. No wonder everyone is confused.

 

[RedPaul]

That's a bit specific isn't it?

I read one bloke the other day called Karl something or other from the WHO and he claimed CV19 would burn out by the autumn and then another bloke Patrick Vallance claiming we could live with CV19 for several years. No wonder everyone is confused.

I know. And October 24th in Italy and November 11th in the States - just in time for Trump to declare 'Victory'

They might be both right. We (Society) 'live' with all sorts of viruses. It's just this one has rushed at us like a 40 tonne truck at 60mph amd no-one has any real idea how much diesel is in the tank.

 

[Spoonz Red E]

Report in the Mail (sorry) that CV will be completely gone from the UK by 30th September, according to Singapore scientists and modellers...
Would be nice to think so!

Much as I'd like to welcome this, it is yet another instance of the Mail printing the 'x is bad for you/ then good for you/ then bad for you' guff they often do.
(I think they've told us in the past that both red wine & chocolate 'causes' and 'cures' cancer).

The modelling they report was done on the 7th of May with the caveat at that time - 'prediction is uncertain and expected to change over time'.

Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in Britain by September 30

A team at the Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the pandemic to pinpoint the date cases will die out. The UK's pandemic could be over by September 30.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The modellers who process the data took it down themselves on the 11th May replacing it with this disclaimer ...
"Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided. Earlier predictions are no longer valid because the real-world scenarios have changed rapidly."

I've highlighted the crucial bit.

Data-Driven Innovation Lab

The Data-Driven Innovation Lab advances data science and artificial intelligence to inform, inspire and intelligentize the innovation process.

ddi.sutd.edu.sg

Yet nearly 2 weeks later the Mail ignores the update.