The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

[Devon Red]

The problem of course is that our recent history shows that we have a higher capability than others to go on an absolutely stinking run of results. I'm not sure how easy it is to model that.

This is what worries me.

Outsiders will probably be looking at us thinking we are going to be fine, but honestly, I just don't know.

 

[denzel]

Think this is the point. For it to require more than 49-ish points to stay up, you'd be asking about 7 or 8 sides to outperform their season so far. That could happen, but isn't very likely. So I suppose the probability reflects the likelihood of us getting fewer than about 8 points from 11 matches.

The problem of course is that our recent history shows that we have a higher capability than others to go on an absolutely stinking run of results. I'm not sure how easy it is to model that.

The problem with that is that you will find that the teams down the bottom always improve if in danger of relegation. Charlton look like they have already started to pick up and Fleetwood aren't giving up. Look what happened to us in 2003 - it was almost inconceivable that we would still go down if we won our last three games - but we did, because so did Carlisle and Swansea!

 

[Nigel E]

The problem with that is that you will find that the teams down the bottom always improve if in danger of relegation.

Teams don't *always* improve in the face of relegation. There are also teams that wilt under the pressure, MK Dons last year just couldn't buy a win. And my concern is that we *could* be one of those teams.

 

[Boyo]

The problem of course is that our recent history shows that we have a higher capability than others to go on an absolutely stinking run of results. I'm not sure how easy it is to model that.

Port vale are currently 10 league games without a win, whilst Charlton, prior to their win on Tuesday, had gone 16 league games without a win.

 

[andrew p long]

Port vale are currently 10 league games without a win, whilst Charlton, prior to their win on Tuesday, had gone 16 league games without a win.

Tuesday was a classic in sudden wins for teams in recent really bad form. As well as Charlton (winning after 16 games without a win) there was also Carlisle (winning after 8 consecutive defeats). Shows how difficult this is all to predict!

This leads me to a question for G-o-T. How big a weighting is given to the current form element (either compared to results throughout this season or the random element)? And what did the stats since 98-99 tell you about the extent of that weighting? The reason for asking is the combination of a) things like the Charlton and Carlisle wins which go completely against form in the last 6 games but b) the intuitive thought that of two teams with identical points, the one in better *current* form seems a better bet and c) the bookies don't seem to pay as much attention to recent form as supporters do.

(PS I think Nigel's E analysis of why we are more pessimistic than the model's output is correct. Also when comparing points tally to avoid relegation against previous seasons, has the fact of points deduction also been taken into account? League One clubs are going to end up with an average point tally of something like 0.5 points fewer each than seasons without points deductions.)

 

[Boyo]

In addition to the bad runs that teams are having, we've seen the opposite as well. We won four of of five games recently, while Cheltenham won three on the spin. I think most teams in the division are capable of putting little runs together. That's what makes me nervous!

 

[Exehausted]

In addition to the bad runs that teams are having, we've seen the opposite as well. We won four of of five games recently, while Cheltenham won three on the spin. I think most teams in the division are capable of putting little runs together. That's what makes me nervous!

And me nervous as well!

 

[Red The Paper (2)]

49 points to be safe. I can only see us winning 2 more games and think we really are not good enough to stay up. A team that cannot shoot on target deserves to be relegated. We focus too much on looking good for the performance stats....possession, passing percentages and fail miserably where it counts, putting the ball in the net

 

[ECFC-GC]

49 points to be safe. I can only see us winning 2 more games and think we really are not good enough to stay up. A team that cannot shoot on target deserves to be relegated. We focus too much on looking good for the performance stats....possession, passing percentages and fail miserably where it counts, putting the ball in the net

Absolutely. Based on points per game average, 47 points is minimum for safety, 51 is safety.
We do not have enough players who know where the net is consistently.

 

[grecian-near-hell]

Absolutely. Based on points per game average, 47 points is minimum for safety, 51 is safety.
We do not have enough players who know where the net is consistently.

Jack Aithchison knows where the woodwork is ………….. consistently.