The Probability Thread 2010

[heathy1]

You know the drill - 500 randomised trials of the final fixtures of the season, based on previous home and away form.

How many points will be needed to finish 20th?

Where will City finish?

Who will go down?

Read into it what you will...

This is exactly the quality of someone that has been on University Challenge!

 

[EX4 6PX]

Would be good to have an update on this, to raise everyone's spirits.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

I’ve got round to updating my spreadsheet for this season. –
My model is similar to poundstretcher – but with differences I’ll not bore you with.
So two graphs:
First shows City’s distribution of points and if these result in safety or relegation with a safety percentage shown – so:
Most likely points total is 46 - ten points from ten games (eg. 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats)
With 46 points give a 39% chance of staying up.
42 points give a 1% change of staying up and 50 points give a 99% chance.

The second graph shows the percentage chance of relegation for each team. After Wednesday's win we dropped below the “magical” 50% line – to 47% chance of relegation.

 

[Cravat]

Thankfully, you don't have worry about all these graphs and statistics and the like.

"Why?" I hear you ask!

because Cravat has already guaranteed survival. Worry not. We will survive!

 

[angelic upstart]

Cravat has already guaranteed survival. Worry not. We will survive!

Angelic Upstart has already guaranteed survival also. I had one taker when I asked who wants to bet on it.

 

[EX4 6PX]

Thanks for that G on T. You know you have done a good job when your graphs have induced at least one headache.

 

[Poundstretcher]

Updated after yesterday's results

 

[LammieLammieLammie]

Poundy, does that mean there's more chance of us finishing 18th or 20th than 19th mate? :S

 

[Anonymous]

yep! its quite feasible that this sort of statistical situation could occur simply due to the fact that 3 points is a win and 1 is a draw...

 

[Poundstretcher]

Poundy, does that mean there's more chance of us finishing 18th or 20th than 19th mate? :S

Yep. This will be down to a combination of how close the teams lie, the number that are down there, and the number of "six-pointers" to come. I can't figure out any more direct cause without much more precise data, which isn't recorded, but that result is statistically significant and I'm inclined to trust it.