The Probability Thread 2010

[Poundstretcher]

You know the drill - 500 randomised trials of the final fixtures of the season, based on previous home and away form.

How many points will be needed to finish 20th?

Where will City finish?

Who will go down?

Read into it what you will...

 

[Pete Martin (CTID)]

Michael Wray's Prediction Table is giving a similar picture (based on results up to 13.02.2010)

 

[Jim Shepherd]

Top work. Redeemed after Adventcalendargate.

Does that mean we have a 1 in 4 chance of being relegated?

 

[Anonymous]

That Wray prediction calculator looks.... bizarre. Don't think it will turn out like that at all.

 

[Oli]

Interesting kurtosis on the second one.

 

[Poundstretcher]

Top work. Redeemed after Adventcalendargate.

Does that mean we have a 1 in 4 chance of being relegated?

That's pretty much the case at the present moment in time, yeah. I imagine that the next two home games will have a massive effect on the numbers: if I can be bothered, I'll do another trial in due course with conditional results - i.e. correlating "how many points did we get off Bristol Rovers & Stockport" against "where do we finish" - see if we can take the Probability thread into a riskier territory than last year.

Add my name to the list of those unimpressed by the Wray predictions.

 

[Dubai Grecian]

Funny was thinking about starting a thread on this today. Based on the fact I got it bang on last season with our points total and position I hear by predict we'll finish on 59pts

Up the City

 

[Anonymous]

I just ran a calculation based on us beating stockport 2-0 and then losing 1-0 to rovers and it came out with a very nasty looking figure.
we finished 4th from bottom on the same points and goal difference as wycombe. tranmere and stockport were also relegated while norwich won the league with 107 points.

 

[Poundstretcher]

Interesting kurtosis on the second one.

Actually turns out to be negative, which is a rarity. Really goes to show how compacted it still is down here.

 

[StixUK]

It's all pretty close anyways with Yeovil losing tonight and Southend and Hartlepool suffering from poor form and dropping points all the time. Tranmere and Brighton are looking pretty scary with some good results and also Oldham looking like they will hit mid-table. We keep 20 pts in the bag and then we are safe. Gillingham are a bit iffy as they are gaining odd points where we have been losing games but we should have an easier run then them esp over next 5 games and can see some points and we need them as playing teams in and around us...losing any of the next 5 or not drawing will ensure our drop into the relegation zone!