Politics Today

[tavyred]

The EMA has begun assessing Vlad’s Sputnik V vaccine for use in the EU apparently. Probably a move to cover the embarrassment of some EU nations going outwith the EU’s procurement process and dealing with Russia direct. Absolute shambles.

 

[DB9]

The EMA has begun assessing Vlad’s Sputnik V vaccine for use in the EU apparently. Probably a move to cover the embarrassment of some EU nations going outwith the EU’s procurement process and dealing with Russia direct. Absolute shambles.

Not that Putin now has a wry smile on his face because of this. After some concerns about the Russian gas pipeline in Europe meaning that Europe is split on what to do when Russia mis-behave because they need that gas, Now they could be beholdened to Russia for getting enough vaccines into Europe! Could be Biden's worst nightmare?

 

[Grecian2K]

The EMA has begun assessing Vlad’s Sputnik V vaccine for use in the EU apparently. Probably a move to cover the embarrassment of some EU nations going outwith the EU’s procurement process and dealing with Russia direct. Absolute shambles.

Hope it's Sputnik and not Novichok they'll be sending this time!

 

[tavyred]

<snigger>

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367527504643293189

 

[Alistair20000]

<snigger>

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367527504643293189

Starmer out.

 

[DB9]

<snigger>

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367527504643293189

Certainly shows its only a two party country, The Lib Democrats are making no impact on a national level.

 

[arthur]

The Brexit Trade Agreement is not going to work because of Northern Ireland. As the sane and rational David Liddington pointed out, there are only three ways of managing the land border between the United Kingdom and the EU.

1. A land border in Ireland
2. The whole of the UK stays in the customs union.
3. A border between Great Britain and Ireland

The threat from nationalist paramilitaries makes (1) fraught with danger and unworkable
The ERG, A. Johnson and assorted others made (2) (May's choice) not an option
Loyalist paramilitaries are threatening to make (3) unworkable and are likely to escalate their action. They have already withdrawn from the Good Friday Agreement.

The UK's response is to break international law once again, as good old Frostie gives those Europeans what for. This risks the Trade Deal not being ratified by the EU Parliament, so it falls and we are back to a full on No Deal Brexit, tariffs and all.

This is all a consequence of UK politicians not taking the situation in Ireland seriously, mainly because they don't understand it and/or aren't interested.

So I'm wondering what will happen now? It seems there are a number of scenarios:

A. The UK does what Johnson promised - "if you get any customs paperwork, just throw it in the bin" - in which case there will be no deal and a border erected in Ireland. Mr Biden will be most displeased, the UVF will be delighted. The rest of the UK will suffer the catastrophic effects of a no deal Brexit

B. The first half of the above happens, and the EU takes no action. Its single market is then unprotected from sub standard UK goods imported from God knows where flooding in, so I think this highly unlikely

C. Frost negotiates with Maros Sefcovic to find a compromise. Since Frost has replaced Gove in order to take harder line in negotiations I'm not sure how successful this negotiation will be. And even if they do reach a compromise the UVF and their mates still won't accept it so the problem won't go away. (A good start would be to do the border checks in Great Britain rather than in Ireland)

D. The UK joins the Customs Union in order to guarantee peace in NI. At this point Johnson's position would be untenable, even for someone as duplicitous as him.

Interested to know how others think this might pan out. Very little of this reported on the BBC needless to say

 

[DB9]

The Brexit Trade Agreement is not going to work because of Northern Ireland. As the sane and rational David Liddington pointed out, there are only three ways of managing the land border between the United Kingdom and the EU.

1. A land border in Ireland
2. The whole of the UK stays in the customs union.
3. A border between Great Britain and Ireland

The threat from nationalist paramilitaries makes (1) fraught with danger and unworkable
The ERG, A. Johnson and assorted others made (2) (May's choice) not an option
Loyalist paramilitaries are threatening to make (3) unworkable and are likely to escalate their action. They have already withdrawn from the Good Friday Agreement.

The UK's response is to break international law once again, as good old Frostie gives those Europeans what for. This risks the Trade Deal not being ratified by the EU Parliament, so it falls and we are back to a full on No Deal Brexit, tariffs and all.

This is all a consequence of UK politicians not taking the situation in Ireland seriously, mainly because they don't understand it and/or aren't interested.

So I'm wondering what will happen now? It seems there are a number of scenarios:

A. The UK does what Johnson promised - "if you get any customs paperwork, just throw it in the bin" - in which case there will be no deal and a border erected in Ireland. Mr Biden will be most displeased, the UVF will be delighted. The rest of the UK will suffer the catastrophic effects of a no deal Brexit

B. The first half of the above happens, and the EU takes no action. Its single market is then unprotected from sub standard UK goods imported from God knows where flooding in, so I think this highly unlikely

C. Frost negotiates with Maros Sefcovic to find a compromise. Since Frost has replaced Gove in order to take harder line in negotiations I'm not sure how successful this negotiation will be. And even if they do reach a compromise the UVF and their mates still won't accept it so the problem won't go away. (A good start would be to do the border checks in Great Britain rather than in Ireland)

D. The UK joins the Customs Union in order to guarantee peace in NI. At this point Johnson's position would be untenable, even for someone as duplicitous as him.

Interested to know how others think this might pan out. Very little of this reported on the BBC needless to say

Surely those in Government and the ERG know what a powder keg NI is? Now is not the time for brinksmanship, There are still plenty of arms dumps ready to go if needed.

 

[arthur]

Surely those in Government and the ERG know what a powder keg NI is? Now is not the time for brinksmanship, There are still plenty of arms dumps ready to go if needed.

It's not do much brinkmanship, it's just that there's no workable compromise I can see, no matter how well intentioned and cordial the negotiations are.

 

[RedPaul]

Arthur is right. You are trying to square a circle that cannot be squared.

There is a pragmatic solution of sorts in my view. You keep the border in the Irish Sea but you are flexible about what can cross it with minimum of checks and paperwork. Movement of goods between GB and NI is dominated by daily supplies to NI and agricultural produce the other way. You keep it under review so it doesn't become a border across which suddenly all sorts is being traded to get round rules either in UK or EU.

However this is categorically not what Johnson and Frost signed up to so the onus is on them to find a solution . The EU are being intransigent but I don't necessarily blame them.

The worry is whether the pragmatism that will inevitably happen at some point happens before the bombs start going off.