Politics Today

[Alistair20000]

So what does everyone make of the Dish's plan?

5% Vat in hospitality and entertainment
Huge change in stamp duty
£1k furlough bonus for employers
"Eat out in August"
Raft of bits and pieces aimed at young workers/apprenticeships
Further raft of 'green' bits and pieces

Extraordinary. The predictable Labour cries of 'it doesn't go far enough' sound a little hollow imho

However it in all honesty probably isn't 'enough'. Many businesses have already gone pop, both in manufacturing and services. The 'whole new way of working' is going to irrevocably change our labour market. The crisis has shown how little cash most businesses have in reserve and even a comparatively short period of hiatus is proving terminal.

I am very depressed about the medium term outlook for our kids.

O.K. I will have a stab at it.

I agree that the short and medium term outlook for our youngsters and the economy is grim.

The magic money tree is being shaken very hard and could be uprooted, assuming it exists at all. Goodness only knows where all this money is coming from and how it will be paid off. Expect higher taxes, cuts in public services and/or a ruinous bout of inflation at some point. Or a combination of all three. Remember the government has no money. It only has what it takes from us in taxes or which it borrows that has to be paid back.

The whole package seems to me to be attempting to save a pre Covid economy when we need to look forward to a “new normal” and an economy that must be reshaped post Covid unless a vaccine is found very soon. Some of it seems to be badly targeted but see below. Not much to encourage entrepreneurs to set up new businesses. Has the flavour of looking back rather than forward.

As regards hospitality, the VAT cut although welcome will have a negligible effect. As long as social distancing stays in place pubs, restaurants etc will struggle to generate enough sales to be viable. Customers may be too nervous to visit these places in sufficient numbers anyway. The choice for society is to continue to support the restrictions with inevitable bankruptcies, closures and job losses or open things up and let individuals decide if they want to take any risks. If the restrictions stay do not complain when the businesses fail and jobs go. What does society want ? It seems to me that the government is doing what the majority of the Public want here.

Cannot see the £1,000 subsidy saving many jobs. To pay someone to work until the end of January in return for £1,000 does not look a sensible business decision unless you are going to keep them on anyway. More likely to be a mix of chucking money where it is not needed and simply postponing the inevitable just as the furlough scheme generally will be proved to have done for a lot of soon to be ex workers.

SDLT temporary reduction may stimulate the housing market a bit but sellers will probably up the asking price to rake off at least some of the benefits. Not convinced it will achieve much.

Green bits and bobs look like tinkering at the edges.

As regards young workers and apprenticeships the measures look like fiddling at the edges too. Much better for a radical rethink by shutting down third rate universities running useless courses and get youngsters to learn skills that would benefit the economy and themselves. Becoming a plumber or an electrician seems to be seen as a poor second choice by youngsters compared with going to university, getting a degree that is worthless to an employer, being saddled with debt and ending up working for Wetherspoons.....or maybe not the last bit any more.

In fairness to the Dish received wisdom is that a stimulus is required and time does not permit a lot of analysis to better target the use of money, deal with anomalies, look for fairness etc.

As for the call to spend more it is as plain as a pike staff that you cannot spend what is not there to save every job and business. Having taken a conscious decision to lay waste to large swathes of the economy there is an inevitable price to be paid.

The idea that governments or the state can identify and run or direct new businesses or existing businesses is for the birds. Governments are hopeless at this sort of thing and just throw money into a bottomless pit.

Business creation and growing businesses is a task for individuals and companies with their workforces.

Get rid of useless box ticking regulation, focus on smart regulation and cut taxes or NIC for those on average earnings or less. Some call that a race to the bottom. I call it a way of escaping the current quicksand. The best way to get people to succeed is for the government to get out of the way

Ignore the Torygraph with its usual hoary old chestnut that scrapping Capital Gains Tax will turbocharge the economy. I have yet to meet an Entrepreneur who was put off from setting up or growing a business because he might pay 10% or 20% CGT if selling it for a profit.

 

[RedPaul]

Hard, to me, to disagree with any of this. Cheers Al

Proper apprenticeships are undoubtedly the way ahead for our kids. There are so many skills to be learnt and the country is in dire need of skilled trades people. Good money can be earned too.

The public transport 'ban' is a biggie in terms of getting the economy moving. Every City centre restaurant can offer all the half-price, 5% vat, steak frites it likes. If you are told not to get a bus or a taxi to get there, then no-one will go. And no-one is travelling in to the city centres to work either so the lunchtime / post work trade is zero too.

 

[Alistair20000]

Hard, to me, to disagree with any of this. Cheers Al

Proper apprenticeships are undoubtedly the way ahead for our kids. There are so many skills to be learnt and the country is in dire need of skilled trades people. Good money can be earned too.

The public transport 'ban' is a biggie in terms of getting the economy moving. Every City centre restaurant can offer all the half-price, 5% vat, steak frites it likes. If you are told not to get a bus or a taxi to get there, then no-one will go. And no-one is travelling in to the city centres to work either so the lunchtime / post work trade is zero too.

Thanks RP.

I overlooked the public transport point in my post which was already over long. I agree with you fully on this.

The apprenticeship thing has become a bit of a hobby horse for me. A plumber, electrician or similarly skilled tradesperson can pick up £50k per annum and more if they work more than a five day week. More if they can take on staff and manage them. However, there seems to be a culture that this is work that is too lowly and unworthy and should be done by immigrants. Blair has a lot to answer for in setting an arbitrary target for 50% of kids to go to university.

I have a friend with a garage who made that sort of money and wanted to bring his son in. Son did not want to “get his hands dirty” and instead went to uni, graduated with a degree of no value to employers and now works in a pub. I do not think he earns £50k per annum.

 

[RedPaul]

Thanks RP.

I overlooked the public transport point in my post which was already over long. I agree with you fully on this.

The apprenticeship thing has become a bit of a hobby horse for me. A plumber, electrician or similarly skilled tradesperson can pick up £50k per annum and more if they work more than a five day week. More if they can take on staff and manage them. However, there seems to be a culture that this is work that is too lowly and unworthy and should be done by immigrants. Blair has a lot to answer for in setting an arbitrary target for 50% of kids to go to university.

I have a friend with a garage who made that sort of money and wanted to bring his son in. Son did not want to “get his hands dirty” and instead went to uni, graduated with a degree of no value to employers and now works in a pub. I do not think he earns £50k per annum.

Private Pike scrapped the 50% target today. Welcome news, as long as there is something concrete to replace it with to encourage our kids to see the positives in trades. The new "T levels" are an attempt but hopelessly implemented such that they will die a death before they start.

Society will always need doctors, nurses and teachers. It will also need plumbers, sparkies, brickies and mechanics for the foreseeable.

 

[Alistair20000]

Private Pike scrapped the 50% target today. Welcome news, as long as there is something concrete to replace it with to encourage our kids to see the positives in trades. The new "T levels" are an attempt but hopelessly implemented such that they will die a death before they start.

Society will always need doctors, nurses and teachers. It will also need plumbers, sparkies, brickies and mechanics for the foreseeable.

Thanks. I missed that from Williamson. Probably wrongly I switch off mentally when he says anything. Needs to implement radical change now. I am not too optimistic.

 

[IndoMike]

O.K. I will have a stab at it.

I agree that the short and medium term outlook for our youngsters and the economy is grim.

The magic money tree is being shaken very hard and could be uprooted, assuming it exists at all. Goodness only knows where all this money is coming from and how it will be paid off. Expect higher taxes, cuts in public services and/or a ruinous bout of inflation at some point. Or a combination of all three. Remember the government has no money. It only has what it takes from us in taxes or which it borrows that has to be paid back.

The whole package seems to me to be attempting to save a pre Covid economy when we need to look forward to a “new normal” and an economy that must be reshaped post Covid unless a vaccine is found very soon. Some of it seems to be badly targeted but see below. Not much to encourage entrepreneurs to set up new businesses. Has the flavour of looking back rather than forward.

As regards hospitality, the VAT cut although welcome will have a negligible effect. As long as social distancing stays in place pubs, restaurants etc will struggle to generate enough sales to be viable. Customers may be too nervous to visit these places in sufficient numbers anyway. The choice for society is to continue to support the restrictions with inevitable bankruptcies, closures and job losses or open things up and let individuals decide if they want to take any risks. If the restrictions stay do not complain when the businesses fail and jobs go. What does society want ? It seems to me that the government is doing what the majority of the Public want here.

Cannot see the £1,000 subsidy saving many jobs. To pay someone to work until the end of January in return for £1,000 does not look a sensible business decision unless you are going to keep them on anyway. More likely to be a mix of chucking money where it is not needed and simply postponing the inevitable just as the furlough scheme generally will be proved to have done for a lot of soon to be ex workers.

SDLT temporary reduction may stimulate the housing market a bit but sellers will probably up the asking price to rake off at least some of the benefits. Not convinced it will achieve much.

Green bits and bobs look like tinkering at the edges.

As regards young workers and apprenticeships the measures look like fiddling at the edges too. Much better for a radical rethink by shutting down third rate universities running useless courses and get youngsters to learn skills that would benefit the economy and themselves. Becoming a plumber or an electrician seems to be seen as a poor second choice by youngsters compared with going to university, getting a degree that is worthless to an employer, being saddled with debt and ending up working for Wetherspoons.....or maybe not the last bit any more.

In fairness to the Dish received wisdom is that a stimulus is required and time does not permit a lot of analysis to better target the use of money, deal with anomalies, look for fairness etc.

As for the call to spend more it is as plain as a pike staff that you cannot spend what is not there to save every job and business. Having taken a conscious decision to lay waste to large swathes of the economy there is an inevitable price to be paid.

The idea that governments or the state can identify and run or direct new businesses or existing businesses is for the birds. Governments are hopeless at this sort of thing and just throw money into a bottomless pit.

Business creation and growing businesses is a task for individuals and companies with their workforces.

Get rid of useless box ticking regulation, focus on smart regulation and cut taxes or NIC for those on average earnings or less. Some call that a race to the bottom. I call it a way of escaping the current quicksand. The best way to get people to succeed is for the government to get out of the way

Ignore the Torygraph with its usual hoary old chestnut that scrapping Capital Gains Tax will turbocharge the economy. I have yet to meet an Entrepreneur who was put off from setting up or growing a business because he might pay 10% or 20% CGT if selling it for a profit.

If you're pessimistic about the future with your greater knowledge of economics then it's hard for me to be optimistic. As you hinted, the key will be finding a truly effective vaccine.
In addition, it would be helpful if finally the Gov could implement a test and trace system that works technically and that can be activated effectively.

Regarding manual jobs such as plumbing and carpentry (manual but requiring skills, too) it's always surprised me that so few Brits have gone for that. They are well-paid jobs
and perfect for small-scale entrepreneurs. Why we have had to rely on immigrant labour in this case seems absurd, although thank God we could attract those immigrants to do it.

Just one question : the doom and gloom you are predicting is based on the covid impact alone, or does it encompass the inevitable economic hit of leaving the EU? Will it be even more doomy and gloomy adding the Brexit effect?

 

[tavyred]

It would appear that in his first 6 months Boris has rather quietly recruited 18K new nurses and 5K new police officers. #justsaying

 

[IndoMike]

It would appear that in his first 6 months Boris has rather quietly recruited 18K new nurses and 5K new police officers. #justsaying

Theoretically that sounds good news, but with a few caveats.
1. I remember the Govt saying it would recruit 50k new nurses, but of course there was a bit of a trick involved: the 50k included retention of nurses that otherwise would have resigned. So
a. How would the Govt know which nurses would resign in order to persuade them not to
b. What salary or terms and conditions were offered in order to persuade nurses not to resign. Presumably a better deal, right?
c. Does this 18k figure include nurses who volunteered to return during the covid 19 crisis, presumably on a temporary basis?
d. Can you tell.me how many of the 18k are new recruits?
e. How have new recruits been vetted and trained within such a short period of time?

You can't blame me for not taking at face value anything that Johnson/ Hancock say, considering their sad history of deceit.
Anyway, five simple questions for you, Tavey. I would appreciate straight answers to my five questions, not the usual spaghetti shaped, vague, uncertain responses that usually are presented
With thanks in advance

@This is a no - rant zone. com.

 

[tavyred]

Morning Indo.
Don't take this the wrong way mate, but I'm not here to be posed multiple questions by anyone.
I've posted something in good faith, which I believe to be true.
Its obviously totally reasonable for you to be sceptical, the onus is on you perhaps to do your own leg work and back up that scepticism by answering your own (quite legitimate) questions.
@This was not a rant.com

 

[Sidey's back]

O.K. I will have a stab at it.

I agree that the short and medium term outlook for our youngsters and the economy is grim.

The magic money tree is being shaken very hard and could be uprooted, assuming it exists at all. Goodness only knows where all this money is coming from and how it will be paid off. Expect higher taxes, cuts in public services and/or a ruinous bout of inflation at some point. Or a combination of all three. Remember the government has no money. It only has what it takes from us in taxes or which it borrows that has to be paid back.

The whole package seems to me to be attempting to save a pre Covid economy when we need to look forward to a “new normal” and an economy that must be reshaped post Covid unless a vaccine is found very soon. Some of it seems to be badly targeted but see below. Not much to encourage entrepreneurs to set up new businesses. Has the flavour of looking back rather than forward.

As regards hospitality, the VAT cut although welcome will have a negligible effect. As long as social distancing stays in place pubs, restaurants etc will struggle to generate enough sales to be viable. Customers may be too nervous to visit these places in sufficient numbers anyway. The choice for society is to continue to support the restrictions with inevitable bankruptcies, closures and job losses or open things up and let individuals decide if they want to take any risks. If the restrictions stay do not complain when the businesses fail and jobs go. What does society want ? It seems to me that the government is doing what the majority of the Public want here.

Cannot see the £1,000 subsidy saving many jobs. To pay someone to work until the end of January in return for £1,000 does not look a sensible business decision unless you are going to keep them on anyway. More likely to be a mix of chucking money where it is not needed and simply postponing the inevitable just as the furlough scheme generally will be proved to have done for a lot of soon to be ex workers.

SDLT temporary reduction may stimulate the housing market a bit but sellers will probably up the asking price to rake off at least some of the benefits. Not convinced it will achieve much.

Green bits and bobs look like tinkering at the edges.

As regards young workers and apprenticeships the measures look like fiddling at the edges too. Much better for a radical rethink by shutting down third rate universities running useless courses and get youngsters to learn skills that would benefit the economy and themselves. Becoming a plumber or an electrician seems to be seen as a poor second choice by youngsters compared with going to university, getting a degree that is worthless to an employer, being saddled with debt and ending up working for Wetherspoons.....or maybe not the last bit any more.

In fairness to the Dish received wisdom is that a stimulus is required and time does not permit a lot of analysis to better target the use of money, deal with anomalies, look for fairness etc.

As for the call to spend more it is as plain as a pike staff that you cannot spend what is not there to save every job and business. Having taken a conscious decision to lay waste to large swathes of the economy there is an inevitable price to be paid.

The idea that governments or the state can identify and run or direct new businesses or existing businesses is for the birds. Governments are hopeless at this sort of thing and just throw money into a bottomless pit.

Business creation and growing businesses is a task for individuals and companies with their workforces.

Get rid of useless box ticking regulation, focus on smart regulation and cut taxes or NIC for those on average earnings or less. Some call that a race to the bottom. I call it a way of escaping the current quicksand. The best way to get people to succeed is for the government to get out of the way

Ignore the Torygraph with its usual hoary old chestnut that scrapping Capital Gains Tax will turbocharge the economy. I have yet to meet an Entrepreneur who was put off from setting up or growing a business because he might pay 10% or 20% CGT if selling it for a profit.

Chapeau Mr Al ! Pretty much spot on I would say.