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Politics Today

tavyred

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Just to humour Indo.😄
After a quick bit of investigative googling by myself, Hancock said yesterday that there are 18K more Nurses (and Midwives) registered now than was the case 12 months ago. I personally don’t see how that can be construed as anything other than good news and a not inconsiderable achievement. 👍
 

IndoMike

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Just to humour Indo.😄
After a quick bit of investigative googling by myself, Hancock said yesterday that there are 18K more Nurses (and Midwives) registered now than was the case 12 months ago. I personally don’t see how that can be construed as anything other than good news and a not inconsiderable achievement. 👍
Serious question : "registered" means hired or qualified to work. I remember when Hancock kept on talking about (for example) 50k people being tested when actually they hadn't been tested : the tests were apparently available but hadn't all been sent, returned by the user, and evaluated by the labs .
Let me repeat, if the Govt had a track record of being honest and transparent it would be easier to believe them, but they haven't - and everybody knows it.
And if the Govt truly has hired 18k NEW nurses that would be excellent. But if they assumed (for example) that 10k nurses would leave due to poor pay and conditions but they didn't then I don't feel that = hiring 10k nurses (for example).
i think my questions to you were fair : just on this thread alone people are always challenging opinions and stats if you look back - but of course I can't make you answer them.
Maybe I'm totally wrong but I find it impossible to believe automatically most of what this Govt says. Mind you, it's difficult to believe what ANY government says, which is why we must constantly scrutinize imo.
 

Alistair20000

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If you're pessimistic about the future with your greater knowledge of economics then it's hard for me to be optimistic. As you hinted, the key will be finding a truly effective vaccine.
In addition, it would be helpful if finally the Gov could implement a test and trace system that works technically and that can be activated effectively.

Regarding manual jobs such as plumbing and carpentry (manual but requiring skills, too) it's always surprised me that so few Brits have gone for that. They are well-paid jobs
and perfect for small-scale entrepreneurs. Why we have had to rely on immigrant labour in this case seems absurd, although thank God we could attract those immigrants to do it.

Just one question : the doom and gloom you are predicting is based on the covid impact alone, or does it encompass the inevitable economic hit of leaving the EU? Will it be even more doomy and gloomy adding the Brexit effect?
I think the lack of love of our youngsters for the skilled crafts is a bit of a culture thing Indo. I do not think the economic consequences and jobs prospects of going to uni compared with other career routes is properly spelled out to them. There seems to be a natural tendency to "expect" that going to "uni" is the right thing to do.

The certain massive wreckage to the economy as a result of the way we have decided to react to Covid underpins my view. The possible damage of Brexit was not part of my gloomy assessment
 

tavyred

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The certain massive wreckage to the economy as a result of the way we have decided to react to Covid underpins my view......
Just be clear, is it the decision to shutdown the economy you feel that has wrecked it, or the Government decision to intervene massively with borrowed cash?
Or maybe perhaps a combination of the two?
 

IndoMike

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I think the lack of love of our youngsters for the skilled crafts is a bit of a culture thing Indo. I do not think the economic consequences and jobs prospects of going to uni compared with other career routes is properly spelled out to them. There seems to be a natural tendency to "expect" that going to "uni" is the right thing to do.

The certain massive wreckage to the economy as a result of the way we have decided to react to Covid underpins my view. The possible damage of Brexit was not part of my gloomy assessment
Thank you for your clear response to my questions

When I was young it was all about going to uni. Maybe at that time the career prospects for electricians, plumbers etc were not so good, or maybe it was a status thing. But from what I know it seems that for many years there has been a shortage of skilled manual workers in the UK - even Australia has constantly been advertising for such skilled worjers for example - and in the UK they can earn very good money.

Regarding the certain damage to the economy , I guess most economies around the world will suffer from the same problem, which makes it difficult for countries to pick each other up through trade or financial assistance.

You say that you didn't include any possible negative economic impact from Brexit - perhaps that is irrelevant now since if there was any damage it would be tens of billions whereas the Covid19 impact will be hundreds of billions?

You don't seem very impressed with the measures taken by Rishi yesterday.
What would be better? 6 months more furlough, or what?

You made it clear that you were not in agreement with the shutdown due to the economic impact. I was in favour of the shutdown on the basis of saving lives first, but I agree it was an awful choice to have to make. We can see from countries like the USA, Brazil and Russia their half-hearted shutdown has not worked out well

Whatever, have to pray for no second wave.
 

Alistair20000

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Morning Al,

Can you give me an example of box ticking regulation we should get rid of?

(Filling in a whole new swathe of customs forms as we export goods to Europe and part of the UK won't count :) )
Morning art.

GDPR.

FATCA. (I am a trustee of a trust that has a small holding of American shares and where I get sent an incomprehensible 7 page form each year by the Unit trust company to ask my residence status and other daft questions. All because some buffoon signed us up to this to help Uncle Sam with spotting tax evasion. May have been Call Me Dave and Gideon. No problem with the idea it is just the mindless blunt instrument that the civil servants draw up)

Various anti money laundering "checks" that we have to do that will not ensnare even the most simple minded potential offender.

Other examples available.

There is a whole industry out there feeding off this turd that adds nothing to our wellbeing, safety or our economy.

I have seen some "Anti Money Laundering Officers" close to having an orgasm as they fill out silly pointless, forms.
 

Alistair20000

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Just be clear, is it the decision to shutdown the economy you feel that has wrecked it, or the Government decision to intervene massively with borrowed cash?
Or maybe perhaps a combination of the two?
The decision to shut down the economy has caused the wreckage as was inevitable. In some cases it has just sped up the final killing off of certain businesses that were already moribund. The decline of the High Street being an example where I read that on line shopping has grown more in the last 3 months than in the previous 5 years.

The point about government intervention is more to do with so many people thinking that borrowing huge amounts of money is a get out of jail free card. It is not, and as is customary with government spending a lot of the cash will be wasted.
 

IndoMike

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The decision to shut down the economy has caused the wreckage as was inevitable. In some cases it has just sped up the final killing off of certain businesses that were already moribund. The decline of the High Street being an example where I read that on line shopping has grown more in the last 3 months than in the previous 5 years.

The point about government intervention is more to do with so many people thinking that borrowing huge amounts of money is a get out of jail free card. It is not, and as is customary with government spending a lot of the cash will be wasted.
Again milking you for information.

I assume the money facilitated by the BoE
is at a very low or zero interest rate. So my questions are:

a. Is that interest rate fixed?
b. Are there any other moneys borrowed from any other source where the interest rate could possibly increase in the future?

I'm totally thick about economics and have no.idea.
 

LOG

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Morning art.

GDPR.

FATCA. (I am a trustee of a trust that has a small holding of American shares and where I get sent an incomprehensible 7 page form each year by the Unit trust company to ask my residence status and other daft questions. All because some buffoon signed us up to this to help Uncle Sam with spotting tax evasion. May have been Call Me Dave and Gideon. No problem with the idea it is just the mindless blunt instrument that the civil servants draw up)

Various anti money laundering "checks" that we have to do that will not ensnare even the most simple minded potential offender.

Other examples available.

There is a whole industry out there feeding off this turd that adds nothing to our wellbeing, safety or our economy.

I have seen some "Anti Money Laundering Officers" close to having an orgasm as they fill out silly pointless, forms.
You'll know as well as i do that these are often arse covering exercises so that the finger can be pointed should something go wrong. You should see the bi-annual tests we have to do to make sure that alarm bells ring when a shady character approaches with a briefcase of used twenties, doesn't want to give his details but would like to put it into an unregulated investment then withdraw it the following week.
 

tavyred

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The decision to shut down the economy has caused the wreckage as was inevitable. In some cases it has just sped up the final killing off of certain businesses that were already moribund. The decline of the High Street being an example where I read that on line shopping has grown more in the last 3 months than in the previous 5 years.

The point about government intervention is more to do with so many people thinking that borrowing huge amounts of money is a get out of jail free card. It is not, and as is customary with government spending a lot of the cash will be wasted.
Yep.
I was shocked to hear on the news last night that 70% of John Lewis’ trade in now online. I think the Government has a real appreciation if they didn’t before, that the hoped for ‘V’ shaped recovery is probably a tad optimistic now. Thousands of types of jobs will no doubt go and never return, and art’s (only joking art) Thatcherite non interventionist 80’s let the market decide theory won’t cut it this time round IMO.
It remains to be seen how the world financial markets will react long term to lending U.K. PLC billions to get us through this crisis and perhaps more pertinently to the fact that this Government has stated that it will not resort to an austerity agenda to pay down the resultant deficit and then the debt. The markets love a good austerity agenda.
Although we are not Japan, perhaps we’ll have to get used to their level of 100%+ debt to GDP ratio in the medium to long term. Much talk also of inevitable tax hikes in 2021.
As you say, a lot will depend on how much bang we get for for our buck with the borrowed cash. Spend it wisely and you can grow the economy with new green jobs,infrastructure projects and the like, waste it and that Government debt becomes an issue.
FWIW, I don’t think the Government had a much of a choice.
 
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