General Election - 8thJune

[IndoMike]

Please supply workings. The fact that he probably votes Tory now to pay lower taxes is not "evidence" you can use.

It was a facetious, dry comment rather than a political science comment, Ali. I guess I was referring to the fact that some Tory papers eventually sided with him.

 

[IndoMike]

It all hinges on Brexit doesn't it. If Davis pulls a blinder and gets the best deal ever then he will probably be the next PM. If he buggers it up and ruins us forever then Corbyn just might be. Or if (as is the most likely option) the deal falls somewhere in the middle and it's impossible to tell whether it was a good idea or not, we'll probably be stuck with Johnson.

Hermann: in order to get a good deal for the UK, what cards do you think Davis holds?

 

[IndoMike]

It is good news, Jason. Wonder why they're doing that? Clarks shoes sell well in Asia. In Jakarta alone there are 16 outlets.

 

[IndoMike]

A good news UK manufacturing story from this week:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-40479472

See my post above.

 

[elginCity]

It is good news, Jason. Wonder why they're doing that? Clarks shoes sell well in Asia. In Jakarta alone there are 16 outlets.

Weak sterling for the foreseeable and rising labour costs in the far east, most probably, as there's plenty of manufacturers 'reshoring' to the UK and US.

 

[IndoMike]

Yep. And maybe the use of robots on the production line. Target for Clarks is 300k pairs with just 80 employees.

 

[Hermann]

Hermann: in order to get a good deal for the UK, what cards do you think Davis holds?

I can't think of any, but then I'm a unpatriotic remoaner. Maybe the fact that they export more to us than we do to them? (And hope that the EU just looks at the value and doesn't look at the percentage of overall trade...)

 

[IndoMike]

I can't think of any, but then I'm a unpatriotic remoaner. Maybe the fact that they export more to us than we do to them? (And hope that the EU just looks at the value and doesn't look at the percentage of overall trade...)

Right. I see Japan has just signed a very significant free trade deal with EU. This surely will mean Japanese manufacturers pulling out of the UK, sooner or later.

 

[elginCity]

Davis holds no cards whatsoever. Economically, the UK will become a competitor to the EU. Any short term economic pain on the EU side (27 different countries remember) will be absorbed with the greater political picture in mind, and to avert any risk of contagion should the UK be seen to benefit economically in any meaningful way post Brexit.

The EU view the Brexit process as one of complete disentanglement after 40 odd years of working together, minimising the damage, essential security matters etc aside. Economically, forget it.

Not as though they haven't consistently warned us of that, but who has been listening ?

 

[Hermann]

Davis holds no cards whatsoever. Economically, the UK will become a competitor to the EU. Any short term economic pain on the EU side (27 different countries remember) will be absorbed with the greater political picture in mind, and to avert any risk of contagion should the UK be seen to benefit economically in any meaningful way post Brexit.

The EU view the Brexit process as one of complete disentanglement after 40 odd years of working together, minimising the damage, essential security matters etc aside. Economically, forget it.

Not as though they haven't consistently warned us of that, but who has been listening ?

Yup, I don't think we will get anything favourable out of the EU. I reckon our only chance is to score a few decent deals with the US, Australia, India, China etc. Or sell some more weapons to the Saudis.