League One - 2023/24

[tom_ecfc]

6/1 for the drop now if anyone is a little pessimistic.

A bookies has just had a punter bet £10k in £10 Scottish notes @ 6/1

 

[Grecian in Guzz]

A bookies has just had a punter bet £10k in £10 Scottish notes @ 6/1

Good ole Scotty !

 

[Colesman Ballz]

If every team below us won their games in hand, this is what the table would look like….

14th Wycombe 44
15th Cambridge 44
16th Burton 44
17th Cheltenham 42
18th Shrewsbury 41
19th Port Vale 40
20th Exeter 40
21st Reading 38
22nd Charlton 37
23rd Fleetwood 30
24th Carlisle 26

Shirley some of those games in hand are against each other ?

 

[Alistair20000]

Shirley some of those games in hand are against each other ?

That’s a good point

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

If every team below us won their games in hand, this is what the table would look like….

14th Wycombe 44
15th Cambridge 44
16th Burton 44
17th Cheltenham 42
18th Shrewsbury 41
19th Port Vale 40
20th Exeter 40
21st Reading 38
22nd Charlton 37
23rd Fleetwood 30
24th Carlisle 26

Another issue with this (pessimistic) approach is that some of the games in hand will not be played until mid-April, so we will have a long wait to see all these surprising victories occur. Maybe a better way of sorting teams with varying games played is to use points minus games played (especially when the games relegation/survival mark is likely to be close to 46 points

 

[iscalad]

A few games on Tuesday night will be of interest.

 

[haka]

Shirley some of those games in hand are against each other ?

Thank you for pointing this out, it seems like it has to be repeated every day.

If anyone would like to crunch the numbers, instead of assuming a set of results that are mathematically impossible, you can use the calculator here:

League One » Table calculator (worldfootball.net)

For example, I gave City only 2 more wins for the rest of the season. Pessimistic, but worth testing. I then entered realistic results for all other games (win some, lose some, as will inevitably happen). You can find games in hand by clicking on the white matchdays from earlier in the season.

That produced 49 points, survival, and safe before the final day.

It is actually hard to get us relegated, unless we win no games at all. There need to be many upsets (points off promotion contenders for relegation rivals, because .... (one more time!) ... they play each other.

 

[STURTZ]

Think Carlisle, Fleetwood, Port Vale and Burton will go down.

 

[denzel]

Some big games for us tomorrow night

Burton v Carlisle
Charlton v Derby
Lincoln v Shrews
Port Vale v Fleetwood
Stevenage v Cambridge
Wycombe v Cheltenham

In the unusual position of cheering on Stevenage, Wycombe, Derby, Lincoln and Carlisle. Not sure on the Vale game!

 

[andrew p long]

Another issue with this (pessimistic) approach is that some of the games in hand will not be played until mid-April, so we will have a long wait to see all these surprising victories occur. Maybe a better way of sorting teams with varying games played is to use points minus games played (especially when the games relegation/survival mark is likely to be close to 46 points
View attachment 14882

Similarly points per game puts us 17th too. And almost identical is allocating one point per game for each game in hand.

In all these scenarios the bad news is that City's realistic position is hovering just a few points (about 4) above the last relegation place. The better news is that an effective 17th place means of course that t least 4 teams below us have to get better results than us in the run in to send us down.

Actually, Saturday's point is/was really valuable (difficult though it is to accept when we wanted more!)