Ollie Watkins

[IndoMike]

Maybe join his mate Maupay at Brighton.ot his old boss at Villa. Could see him playing at Bournemouth. Palace could be a good fit. Spurs would be great but maybe that's too ambitious.

 

[BerksBee]

If he keeps this up there will be a 4 M bonanza for us in January I reckon.

Watkins won't be going anywhere in January in my opinion, players don't sign new 4 year deals if they're planning on moving on in a couple of months. On the other hand if a big Prem club comes in with an 'offer we can't refuse' you may well be right, but I don't see that happening either. Having just lost Maupay, it would take a monstrous offer for us to let go of Watkins. From memory, we turned down a £12m offer from Crystal Palace in the summer window, being valued at around £15m at that time. If he successfully transitions into a Championship striker, you can double that.

It's not always easy to hang on to players though when higher league clubs come knocking, as you well know yourselves. Maupay is a good example—we actually offered Maupay higher weekly wages than he was offered at Brighton, but he wanted to go to a Prem club and off he went. Too early for him in my opinion, he needed another year or two in the Championship as is the case with Watkins and I think Watkins has been smarter than Maupay in staying in the Championship. Watkins will ultimately become the more successful of the two in my opinion, he's a more all-round player and is now adding striker/No. 9 qualities to his skill set.

Watkins isn't a natural striker, so he's having to learn/add those skills to his game—positional, movement, hold up and lay off play and it's taking him time to adjust to his new role.

The good news for you guys is, once he's adjusted and knocked in 20+ goals for a couple of seasons you'll be looking at 20-25% of c£30m.

Add that to the initial fee paid and you'll start to see what a really good deal you got. No-one pays (initial fee - sold price + sell on %) c£10m for league 2 players, no matter how good they are. That's a nice sum of money for a League 2/1 club.

i wouldn't pay too much attention to the Barnsley result, they're a very young and inexperienced side and lack the skilful, quality players you need at Championship level. We moved into a higher gear in the second half and blew them away, should have had 5 or 6. Barnsley are nailed on relegation candidates in my opinion. That's not taking anything away from Watkins, his goals were well taken and clinical, but he's still got work to do in terms of his movement and positioning in and around the box if he hopes to score 20+ goals. Not many Championship sides are as sloppy at the back as Barnsley were!

 

[John William]

Watkins won't be going anywhere in January in my opinion, players don't sign new 4 year deals if they're planning on moving on in a couple of months. On the other hand if a big Prem club comes in with an 'offer we can't refuse' you may well be right, but I don't see that happening either. Having just lost Maupay, it would take a monstrous offer for us to let go of Watkins. From memory, we turned down a £12m offer from Crystal Palace in the summer window, being valued at around £15m at that time. If he successfully transitions into a Championship striker, you can double that.

It's not always easy to hang on to players though when higher league clubs come knocking, as you well know yourselves. Maupay is a good example—we actually offered Maupay higher weekly wages than he was offered at Brighton, but he wanted to go to a Prem club and off he went. Too early for him in my opinion, he needed another year or two in the Championship as is the case with Watkins and I think Watkins has been smarter than Maupay in staying in the Championship. Watkins will ultimately become the more successful of the two in my opinion, he's a more all-round player and is now adding striker/No. 9 qualities to his skill set.

Watkins isn't a natural striker, so he's having to learn/add those skills to his game—positional, movement, hold up and lay off play and it's taking him time to adjust to his new role.

The good news for you guys is, once he's adjusted and knocked in 20+ goals for a couple of seasons you'll be looking at 20-25% of c£30m.

Add that to the initial fee paid and you'll start to see what a really good deal you got. No-one pays (initial fee - sold price + sell on %) c£10m for league 2 players, no matter how good they are. That's a nice sum of money for a League 2/1 club.

i wouldn't pay too much attention to the Barnsley result, they're a very young and inexperienced side and lack the skilful, quality players you need at Championship level. We moved into a higher gear in the second half and blew them away, should have had 5 or 6. Barnsley are nailed on relegation candidates in my opinion. That's not taking anything away from Watkins, his goals were well taken and clinical, but he's still got work to do in terms of his movement and positioning in and around the box if he hopes to score 20+ goals. Not many Championship sides are as sloppy at the back as Barnsley were!

Agree with most of this, pretty much what Frank has said in recent interviews. But I wouldn't pay much attention to the fact that he has signed a new contract, time and again this means nothing in football.

Actually, if I remember from the figures that were presented to the Trust AGM we don't need the money immediately, so a bigger sell-on in the Summer might work to our advantage.

Against that, football is a pragmatic and hard-nosed business. Brentford's board will be aware that any player is at risk of a serious injury at any time so if they were offered significantly more than £20M in January, they would probably be sensible to take it weighed against the risk of getting nothing in the summer. £16M+ for them and £4M as our share would be good business for both clubs.

It may depend on where Brentford are in January. Time will tell.

And all this only enhances the reputation of both clubs.

 

[SEA Grecian]

Actually, if I remember from the figures that were presented to the Trust AGM we don't need the money immediately, so a bigger sell-on in the Summer might work to our advantage.

We may not need the money immediately but presumably if the Watkins money comes in in January it would make it easier to resist potential offers for Sparkes, Williams et al. I also wonder how the club have planned the budget going forward knowing there is a high, but not guaranteed, chance of substantial transfer income being received in the not too distant future.

 

[John William]

I also wonder how the club have planned the budget going forward knowing there is a high, but not guaranteed, chance of substantial transfer income being received in the not too distant future.

Again from memory I don't think they do budget for windfalls at all, on grounds of prudence. There is I think money in the kitty for another 2 years of current playing budget, which Taggy recently confirmed is only middle-ranking for L2 (clubs are told by EFL their ranking but not what other clubs' budgets actually are). Only when the money is actually guaranteed does it play into the budget.

The new contracts for Seymour and Sparkes will not be significant to the overall budget, though presumably nice and deserved salary increases for the two of them; more important is the length of the contracts.

There is however presumably also a (modest?) sum due from Boateng's transfer to MK, which has gone quiet; I have no idea how much is expected or whether any of that has been put into the budget.

📝 Hiram Boateng departure confirmed

Exeter City can confirm that Hiram Boateng will be leaving St James Park after turning down a new contract, of a higher value than any previously offered by the club.

www.exetercityfc.co.uk

We have all seen what happens when businesses plan for income which doesn't arrive.

 

[IndoMike]

Are we in for a windfall if Grimes is transferred I can't remember

 

[SEA Grecian]

Again from memory I don't think they do budget for windfalls at all, on grounds of prudence. There is I think money in the kitty for another 2 years of current playing budget, which Taggy recently confirmed is only middle-ranking for L2 (clubs are told by EFL their ranking but not what other clubs' budgets actually are). Only when the money is actually guaranteed does it play into the budget.

The new contracts for Seymour and Sparkes will not be significant to the overall budget, though presumably nice and deserved salary increases for the two of them; more important is the length of the contracts.

There is however presumably also a (modest?) sum due from Boateng's transfer to MK, which has gone quiet; I have no idea how much is expected or whether any of that has been put into the budget.

📝 Hiram Boateng departure confirmed

Exeter City can confirm that Hiram Boateng will be leaving St James Park after turning down a new contract, of a higher value than any previously offered by the club.

www.exetercityfc.co.uk

We have all seen what happens when businesses plan for income which doesn't arrive.

I agree that the official budget won't have any windfalls in it but I just wonder how far the club goes in developing contingency plans based on various levels of possible future income.

 

[John William]

Are we in for a windfall if Grimes is transferred I can't remember

No. We took a flat fee in three tranches.

 

[andrew p long]

I agree that the official budget won't have any windfalls in it but I just wonder how far the club goes in developing contingency plans based on various levels of possible future income.

My guess is that, because we are currently burning through the surplus from the Transfer income of £4m a couple of seasons back and have a couple of years left before that runs out and would have to then slash the playing budget by £0.5- £0.75m (?) per year..

...Then the outline contingency plan for say a windfall of £1m is that we put back for another year or two into the future the date when we have to cut the budget.

PS good analysis by JW. There is also the Jay Stansfield money from Fulham to take into account.

 

[IndoMike]

No. We took a flat fee in three tranches.

Ok. Thanks