General Election - 8thJune

[arthur]

Interesting analogy with Switzerland. It maybe that we need to go through the populist revolution and come out the other side. Rawnsley made the point yesterday that "highly sophisticated, cultured and prosperous" European Nations - France, Italy, Germany - can go through periods of huge upheaval and then recover.

Part of me thinks that perhaps no deal is what this country needs for it to learn the hard way that populism doesn't work. The cost will be huge of course, and massively unfair on those of limited means who voted Remain, not to mention the people of Scotland who would have to pay the price for English exceptionalist delusion. But without this catharsis, how will this running sore be healed? By a confident, effective Labour party that captures the public imagination by charting a way out of this austerity driven misery, anger and hopelessness? Another bloody unicorn

 

[arthur]

I'd be interested to know the basis on which this assumption is made. Policy-wise the current Conservatives have been very centrist in terms of taxation vs spending and on social policy.

The Greens in this country are very left wing economically, and have been somewhat squeezed by Labour's leftward shift having become something of a home for those who prior to 2015 felt Labour weren't left wing enough.

You're out of date. Since Corbyn was elected and the Lib-Dems melted down there was a shift from Lib Dem to Green and from Green to Corbo-Labour. Now the shine is coming off Corbyn there will be a shift back from Corbo-Labour to Green, while the Greens will still hang on to their Lib Dem legacy votes. See also this

 

[Jason H]

You're out of date. Since Corbyn was elected and the Lib-Dems melted down there was a shift from Lib Dem to Green and from Green to Corbo-Labour. Now the shine is coming off Corbyn there will be a shift back from Corbo-Labour to Green, while the Greens will still hang on to their Lib Dem legacy votes. See also this

That's not something that has been evident in elections nor in polling since 2015 to date. In 2017 the LD vote held up reasonably well while the Green vote tanked (partly a result of them not standing in some Lab/LD vs Con marginals).

With the hard left now dominating Labour's membership, I suspect the replacement for the Glorious Leader will come from the same wing of the party.

 

[Alistair20000]

Here's hoping, but I think Merckel will succeed in bringing him back down to earth.

Someone mentioned the dream ticket of Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson, aka "BAMBER". It's not as ludicrous as it sounds as it unites both Leave and Remain camps. Rudd doesn't have enough clout to get the top job on her own steam but could play a second fiddle quite well and would head up the Remain side. I find it odd that the two actually get on, but if they do I think it' might fly. Can certainly be no worse than what's currently in place at the top.

1. I would expect Angela Meerkat to put the jumped up Macaroon firmly in his place.

2. The "Bamber ticket" is a proposed marriage made in hell. Rather like the Ken Clarke/John Redwood alliance for the Tory party leadership contest in 1997. One way or the other Brexit is going to feature large in our politics over the next few years and that pair are poles apart. Added to which Rudd could well lose her seat next time. Perhaps that is the cunning Bojo's play ? :S Temporarily unite the party and then Rudd will be gone after the election.

 

[arthur]

That's not something that has been evident in elections nor in polling since 2015 to date. In 2017 the LD vote held up reasonably well while the Green vote tanked (partly a result of them not standing in some Lab/LD vs Con marginals).

With the hard left now dominating Labour's membership, I suspect the replacement for the Glorious Leader will come from the same wing of the party.

2017 was two years ago. A lot has changed since then

Labour's "hard left" membership is a combination of old Trots, come in from the cold, and a lot of young, idealistic people who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Corbyn, particularly with regard to Europe. Corbyn's narrow "wing of the party" is shrinking - a broader left is emerging

 

[arthur]

1. I would expect Angela Meerkat to put the jumped up Macaroon firmly in his place.

2. The "Bamber ticket" is a proposed marriage made in hell. Rather like the Ken Clarke/John Redwood alliance for the Tory party leadership contest in 1997. One way or the other Brexit is going to feature large in our politics over the next few years and that pair are poles apart. Added to which Rudd could well lose her seat next time. Perhaps that is the cunning Bojo's play ? :S Temporarily unite the party and then Rudd will be gone after the election.

Wasn't it Rudd who said it would be good to meet Boris Johnson at a party but you wouldn't want him driving you home?

 

[geoffwp]

2017 .... a lot of young, idealistic people who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Corbyn, particularly with regard to Europe.

Absolutely. Fits the profile of my daughters and a lot of their friends. When Jez was elected it seemed like a breath of fresh air, to some of us oldies too. The disappointment with his Eurosceptical silence at crucial times was very keenly felt by them. From what they tell me almost all of that extended group of young professionals want him gone.

 

[Hermann]

Absolutely. Fits the profile of my daughters and a lot of their friends. When Jez was elected it seemed like a breath of fresh air, to some of us oldies too. The disappointment with his Eurosceptical silence at crucial times was very keenly felt by them. From what they tell me almost all of that extended group of young professionals want him gone.

I'm genuinely surprised by the number of people I know willing to overlook his brexit stance and continue supporting him. But I suppose we all have our blind spots when it comes to our favourite politicians, look at the continued worship of Jacob "tax haven" Rees-Mogg.

 

[Mr Jinx]

Absolutely. Fits the profile of my daughters and a lot of their friends. When Jez was elected it seemed like a breath of fresh air, to some of us oldies too. The disappointment with his Eurosceptical silence at crucial times was very keenly felt by them. From what they tell me almost all of that extended group of young professionals want him gone.

But presumably they were more than happy to vote Labour at the GE in 2017 where their manifesto promised to respect the 2016 EU vote?

 

[Jason H]

But presumably they were more than happy to vote Labour at the GE in 2017 where their manifesto promised to respect the 2016 EU vote?

Probably drowned out by all the pronouncements of FREE STUFF! YAY!