League 1 2023/24 Relegation Prediction Thread

[Red & White]

But if you ain't winning............. Look at what we had to go through to get going again.

At this stage, I'd rather have points on the board and be in touching distance than have games in hand. Form is meaningless in a relegation scrap.

 

[denzel]

Port Vale have got away games at Cheltenham and Reading coming up. We should now after those games which of those three are likely to be relegated.

 

[Boyo]

Realistically we need 50 to be safe (thats what history says in League 1)

But with points deductions it may be lower than 50

So 3 more wins !! and a couple of nil nils

Fleetwood stayed up in 21/22 with 40 points!

 

[dontpassback]

I think Clarke will keep Cheltenham up,it will be close,as per Cambridge last season,but he is a good manager who will get the best out of the players!

 

[Exehausted]

Ar*yle and Oldham went down with 50, though that has been the highest figure.
I think this season 50 will definitely be safe but hopefully we can finish with 60+ and look to mid table not bottom four.

Sorry Denzel, but Torquay went down on 51 in 2005 on GD.

 

[Exiled_Grecian]

Whilst I'm a firm believer that stats aren't everything in football, I had a little look at our PPG during the periods where I personally feel as though we had the least amount of extenuating circumstances that were impacting results just to see if it reaffirmed my own personal opinion on where we should finish this season.

I calculated our PPG from the start of the season through to, but not including, Northampton (where IMO our thin squad started becoming overly stretched and then again our PPG from December through to today (where I felt we had enough in the squad for results to be fairly judged again).

PPG Period 1 (10 games/16 points): 1.6 PPG
PPG Period 2 (14 games/21 points): 1.5 PPG

Rounding up the average across the two periods by 0.05 that gives us a PPG over those 24 games of 1.6 PPG. Over 46 games, that would have had us finishing in 8th place in last season's League One with 74 points (rounded up from 73.6). Which I feel is well above where I would've expected us to finish, even if we hadn't had the dismal run during October-November.

Working it out in addition to our current actual performance this season, we would end on 63 points, which would have us finishing 10th in last season's League One. This is a lot closer to where I feel we could expect to finish.

This isn't intended to be any sort of pro-Caldwell post, hence why it's posted here rather than other threads, instead just something I had a look at out of interest as I have felt, since the start of the season, that we can reasonably expect a mid-table finish this season.

Funnily enough, our current PPG across the whole season would have us finishing 14th in last season's League One.

Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and Charlton the ones to go for me, the latter because they seem to be in freefall and IMO are another 'big' club that are in a long term rut and need a total reset and humbling of League Two football.

 

[Exehausted]

Whilst I'm a firm believer that stats aren't everything in football, I had a little look at our PPG during the periods where I personally feel as though we had the least amount of extenuating circumstances that were impacting results just to see if it reaffirmed my own personal opinion on where we should finish this season.

I calculated our PPG from the start of the season through to, but not including, Northampton (where IMO our thin squad started becoming overly stretched and then again our PPG from December through to today (where I felt we had enough in the squad for results to be fairly judged again).

PPG Period 1 (10 games/16 points): 1.6 PPG
PPG Period 2 (14 games/21 points): 1.5 PPG

Rounding up the average across the two periods by 0.05 that gives us a PPG over those 24 games of 1.6 PPG. Over 46 games, that would have had us finishing in 8th place in last season's League One with 74 points (rounded up from 73.6). Which I feel is well above where I would've expected us to finish, even if we hadn't had the dismal run during October-November.

Working it out in addition to our current actual performance this season, we would end on 63 points, which would have us finishing 10th in last season's League One. This is a lot closer to where I feel we could expect to finish.

This isn't intended to be any sort of pro-Caldwell post, hence why it's posted here rather than other threads, instead just something I had a look at out of interest as I have felt, since the start of the season, that we can reasonably expect a mid-table finish this season.

Funnily enough, our current PPG across the whole season would have us finishing 14th in last season's League One.

Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and Charlton the ones to go for me, the latter because they seem to be in freefall and IMO are another 'big' club that are in a long term rut and need a total reset and humbling of League Two football.

I disagree about Charlton. Yes, at the moment they are in appalling form and are the team you would expect to go. However, big clubs (at this level) always seem to find a way to escape tier 4 and rarely do these bigger clubs get close to it. The amount of big clubs that drop from tier 2 to 3 is a long list, Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds, Southampton, Derby, for example, but only Bradford City have dropped down to level 4. They've just brought in Nathan Jones and they will expect a reaction and for that reason I think they will escape. From 21st upwards will see a lot of changes from now until the end of the season. As Andrew Long pointed out yesterday, Port Vale in 21st would go above us if they win their games in hand. While I'm confident that we will stay up, thanks to our strong defence and the fact that we are now creating chances and taking some of them, I wont relax until we get to 52 points.

 

[haka]

One of Vale's games in hand is the abandoned one at Reading. Those protests may have set up a relegation decider ...

 

[Super Ronnie Jepson]

I disagree about Charlton. Yes, at the moment they are in appalling form and are the team you would expect to go. However, big clubs (at this level) always seem to find a way to escape tier 4 and rarely do these bigger clubs get close to it. The amount of big clubs that drop from tier 2 to 3 is a long list, Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds, Southampton, Derby, for example, but only Bradford City have dropped down to level 4. They've just brought in Nathan Jones and they will expect a reaction and for that reason I think they will escape. From 21st upwards will see a lot of changes from now until the end of the season. As Andrew Long pointed out yesterday, Port Vale in 21st would go above us if they win their games in hand. While I'm confident that we will stay up, thanks to our strong defence and the fact that we are now creating chances and taking some of them, I wont relax until we get to 52 points.

Portsmouth dropped to tier 4. But yes, for most 'big' clubs, tier 3 is rock bottom.

 

[The 3 United's]

Depending on definition of a big club there are some teams that have played at the highest level and have had mighty falls. Luton, Swindon, Carlisle, Notts Co, Northampton? Oldham come to mind and probably a few others.