The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

[Grecian in Cumbria]

Looking good now .....

 

[denzel]

Looking good now .....View attachment 14980

Excellent, play offs still on. Let's hope for a Peterborough win tonight! #giddy

 

[Information]

Seven point gap to Cheltenham. A draw there would be enough.

A win on Saturday will put us within touching distance

Maybe 47 points could even be enough now !!

Bottom 4 are really struggling

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

from https://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity#TPOPl
Six more point as good as guarantees safety.
Three more points, more likely to survive (68.3%)

 

[Grecian in Cumbria]

View attachment 14984
from https://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity#TPOPl
Six more point as good as guarantees safety.
Three more points, more likely to survive (68.3%)

I’m not sure that graph can be right GoT as Wycombe and Wigan are both on 47 points already and are down as 0.0% chance of relegation, so surely 3 more points gets us there too??

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

I’m not sure that graph can be right GoT as Wycombe and Wigan are both on 47 points already and are down as 0.0% chance of relegation, so surely 3 more points gets us there too??

Wigan are at 0.1% & Wycombe 0.0% but these are to one decimal place, so that's between, 5-14 times in 10,000 for Wigan & 1-4 times for Wycombe.
If Wigan & Wycombe get zero more points then they still have a fair chance of relegation as per these graphs.
https://www.probs4.club/team/WiganAthletic#TPOPl
https://www.probs4.club/team/Wycombe#TPOPl

The number of times when Wigan & Wycombe get zero or one more point are very low so the percentage becomes very approximate,

 

[Grecian in Cumbria]

Sorry to go on but that still suggests there is a mistake. If Wycombe currently finish in the bottom 4 on only 1-4 out of 10,000 runs of the model, why does the graph in your latest post have them as 100% chance of relegation if they get no more points and 25% if they get one more point? Surely that red line should be flat at 0% (or a flicker above for 0 or 1 more point gained) for Wycombe and similarly for Wigan?

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

Sorry to go on but that still suggests there is a mistake. If Wycombe currently finish in the bottom 4 on only 1-4 out of 10,000 runs of the model, why does the graph in your latest post have them as 100% chance of relegation if they get no more points and 25% if they get one more point? Surely that red line should be flat at 0% (or a flicker above for 0 or 1 more point gained) for Wycombe and similarly for Wigan?

we are talking different percentages for different things.
Consider https://www.probs4.club/team/Wycombe#TPO

so the amount in red accounts for 0.03% of Wycombe's likely outcomes.
From the 10000 predicted outcomes Wycombe get relegated four times 0.04% (rounded to 0.0%)

The data from the previous chart shows a percent for relegation IF team gets that number of points so ... for Wycombe ...
for 47 points (0 more points) 1 occurrence with 1 relegation hence 100.0% (1/1)
for 48 points (1 more points) 8 occurrence with 2 relegation hence 25.0% (2/8)
for 49 points (2 more points) 29 occurrence with 1 relegation hence 3.4% (1/29)
for 50 points and above (3 more points) 0 relegation hence 0.0%

Hope this helps you understand what the charts are trying to show.

 

[Grecian in Cumbria]

we are talking different percentages for different things.
Consider https://www.probs4.club/team/Wycombe#TPO
View attachment 14988
so the amount in red accounts for 0.03% of Wycombe's likely outcomes.
From the 10000 predicted outcomes Wycombe get relegated four times 0.04% (rounded to 0.0%)

The data from the previous chart shows a percent for relegation IF team gets that number of points so ... for Wycombe ...
for 47 points (0 more points) 1 occurrence with 1 relegation hence 100.0% (1/1)
for 48 points (1 more points) 8 occurrence with 2 relegation hence 25.0% (2/8)
for 49 points (2 more points) 29 occurrence with 1 relegation hence 3.4% (1/29)
for 50 points and above (3 more points) 0 relegation hence 0.0%

Hope this helps you understand what the charts are trying to show.

Ok fair enough I will get back in my box - I understand the difference now

 

[tonykellowfan]

If you look at the form of the bottom 6, they all have dire form. No one is going on a decent run to get out of trouble.

I reckon quite a low points total might be needed to stay up this season.

You could argue that Shrewsbury on 44 points are already safe as I don't see any team in the bottom 4 getting to 45 points.