Caldwell out?

[Exiled_Grecian]

Jeez, is this what football has become? Discussions around passes per sequence or direct speed. I didn't sign up for this #GetCaldwellOut

This also just glosses over any sort of response to any of the questions I put forward in my post - I'm not using the stats to defend GC to the bitter end, just highlighting some things and posing questions to elicit thought and reflection.

Exactly. Whilst I do look at stats, to quote Roy Keane 'your eyes don't lie to ya'. I don't need stats and Xg to tell me whether the football at SJP is enjoyable, it isn't.

Roy Keane/Sky Sports use stats all the time. Roy Keane has used the phrase 'look at his numbers' before when assessing a player's output. To say stats are useless is an argument people often use when the stats don't support their opinion - yet people on here are happy to use the stats of our goals per game to back up their argument that we are a woeful side to watch - that's all I'm doing - highlighting that.

You don't think the football is enjoyable - that is absolutely fine, I have no issue with that being yours/anyone else's opinion and I'm not telling you that we are fantastic to watch. Not everyone sees football in the same way. All I was/am doing is arguing that people should be a little more accurate in their analysis and reporting of our play and then have more of a balanced argument when delivering their assessment.

 

[Devon Red]

Roy Keane/Sky Sports use stats all the time. Roy Keane has used the phrase 'look at his numbers' before when assessing a player's output. To say stats are useless is an argument people often use when the stats don't support their opinion - yet people on here are happy to use the stats of our goals per game to back up their argument that we are a woeful side to watch - that's all I'm doing - highlighting that.

You don't think the football is enjoyable - that is absolutely fine, I have no issue with that being yours/anyone else's opinion and I'm not telling you that we are fantastic to watch. Not everyone sees football in the same way. All I was/am doing is arguing that people should be a little more accurate in their analysis and reporting of our play and then have more of a balanced argument when delivering their assessment.

Like I said, I do look at stats and use Xg to see trends of form and whether a side is over or underperforming, however my reasoning for not wanting Caldwell as manager has nothing to do with stats, it's the fact that I've spent over £300 on a season ticket this season and the most excitement I've had is buying a bovril on my way into the ground.

Even if we stay up this season, my opinion on the manager won't change until I start enjoying home games again.

 

[Average Joe]

1) Not our job to find replacements so it's irrelevant.
2) What's that got to do with anything? A decent manager might have us pushing for a play-off spot.
3) Impossible to answer as we don't know what his salary package is or what the club's current financial status is.

You think people are too quick to want change, I think the happy clappers are too afraid of change and will never advocate it under any circumstances.

Whilst I agree with 1) and 3) I think realistically we will never be pushing for play offs.

Secondly I feel if we could afford a managerial change then we would have done it by now. Maybe it's just not realistic to sack GC

 

[Devon Red]

For the voters who voted GC out on the poll, I have a couple of questions.

1) Do you have a replacement in mind?
2) Where do you think we should be sitting in league 1?
3) How much and where will we find the budget to remove GC?

Will be interesting to know if anyone can even answer one of these questions truthfully.

We're too quick to want a change without actually realizing what it entails. in my opinion removing GC is out of our budget.

I don't know why I'm entertaining this really but here goes...

1- No replacement in mind, that's not my job.
2- We should probably be sitting around where we are now, lower mid table.
3- Hawker came out a few months ago and said that claims that we can't afford to sack Caldwell are false.

For me and many others I'm guessing, it's the dull football at SJP I'm tired of. Whilst survival is obviously very important, so is entertaining fans. To finish mid table but be bored to tears every other Saturday isn't good enough for me. For others that might be fine, maybe results are the be all and end all but I come to matches wanting entertainment and the reality is we aren't getting it (that's subjective of course, you might find our football exhilarating).

 

[edwin_price]

Exactly. Whilst I do look at stats, to quote Roy Keane 'your eyes don't lie to ya'. I don't need stats and Xg to tell me whether the football at SJP is enjoyable, it isn't.

Actually, if you look at the xE (E = enjoyment), you did actually enjoy it more than youd think and 26% more than average for a team in 15th place.

 

[Antony Moxey]

Whilst I agree with 1) and 3) I think realistically we will never be pushing for play offs.

Secondly I feel if we could afford a managerial change then we would have done it by now. Maybe it's just not realistic to sack GC

But in his interview at the back end of last year Nick Hawker explicitly said we could afford to sack the manager. And why 'realistically' do you think we will never be pushing for the play-offs. Tisdale took to us to eighth in this division, one place off a play-off place. I'd say that's pretty close to pushing for the play-offs, and if Tisdale can do then why can't subsequent managers?

 

[Simba3011]

Mark Bonner is still available and trying to get a job. Similar to MT in terms of an academy background and was wanted by Rotherham not too long ago.

 

[Mid Devon Grecian]

Stats aren't just stats though are they, stats are used to back up points in nearly every matter across life. They aren't the be all and end all of course, but can support an idea or dispel an incorrect idea.

I completely disagree with you, the idea that we are furiously looking over our shoulder is anecdotal - some of us of course will be worried about the prospect of relegation, some are far more confident that isn't on the cards and are looking at how we can improve our current league position further. Everyone has a different opinion and as I've said previously - I'm not lauding GC or his biggest fan - I personally just really don't subscribe or think it's fair when people make subjective comments and present them as facts.

Charlie Adam played effectively 4 up front in the second half, if GC had switched to a more rigid 5 at the back and tried to see out a 1-0 win, people would have been still been dismayed and apoplectic. Just because he makes a tactical change people don't agree with doesn't mean he's tactically inept. Did he make the right change - no probably not, but to say he didn't change anything just isn't a fair reflection.

I have no issue with people complaining about the style of play, just do so fairly.

Your stats don’t really prove anything either way do they? Some good teams do well playing one way other good teams do well playing another way.

As I said results and points are what matters and a modicum of excitement/entertainment thrown in would be desirable.

Adam was bold, we had no answer. Have you seen our team under GC make bold changes that have significantly changed the course of games?

Has it occurred to you that our underperformance of xG is down to the fact we have no guile in the final third (Cole excepted) and couldn’t hit a cows ar*se with a banjo?

The manager built the squad and deploys the tactics.

 

[Bridgy 81]

1/ I personally would trust the board to make the right choice, Just because they got GC Wrong, doesn't mean they will do so again. Ultimately though it is a pointless question as they have proven there won't be a situation in which he will be removed. Of the out of work managers whom where in the championship, Gary Rowett or Alex Neil would be of most interest in getting in, but tbh I would prefer someone like MT or PT at appointment time they came in, someone different, not from the scrapeheap of terrible managers like the GC Appointment. Although how realistic an option either of those are would be questionable, but tbh that doesn't detract that Caldwell has been a really poor appointment and doesn't detract from the fact he is lucky to still have a career in football management in the football league. Ultimately the club / trust over 20 years have gotten 4/5 appointments spot on, one bad appointment doesn't mean they will pick the wrong one next time round. I would however like someone in the ilk of Steve Perryman as part of the process if possible.

2/ We don't get the best out of the players we have, this season or last. That is now evidenced and down to Tactical approach / set up and that is down to GC as when we changed things in March last year, we started picking up results. GC's tactics have worked for on glorious spell in August, other than this, his tactics are a complete waste of the side we have. We haven't changed a game and gone on to win from a losing position this season through subs that GC has changed the game with. Our position atm is a little bit false and we are beginning to embark on another barren spell of results. We are in serious danger of going down and yet our manager presses ahead with tactics and an approach which simply aren't getting the best from our side. If we go down, then we fully need to look at why the club didn't act and why GC didn't change anything. If i felt he was getting the best from the squad then it is different, but we clearly are not getting anywhere near the best this side can produce and that is down to GC. Cheltenham are a good example of a good manager getting as much as possible from a poor squad, we are a good example of not getting anywhere near the best from an average squad.

3/ Our chairman has said we can afford to fire him. The club have gambled on giving him more players and hoping for the best. To me it feels the longer we cling onto the hope GC will turn out ok, the longer we will be suffering across the next few seasons. Sometimes it is the right decision to remove someone from their position.

It has been 15 months since GC Was appointed, the evidence is clear imho that he was a poor choice and our performances / results on the pitch show that clearly. To be blunt it was clear in Dec 22 that he was the wrong choice for me. Unfortunately the evidence currently only suggests he was a poor choice. If we fail to beat Shrewsbury next week, we are fooked. The vast majority of people have waited and waited and waited for the improvement only to see us invest in players in January and largely have a decent January window, only for it to seemingly further confuse our manager and expose his tactical ineptness further.

Don’t worry. I’ll be at Shrewsbury next week.
What can possibly go wrong?

 

[Boyo]

It isn't defending the indefensible when you make out that your subjective opinion is or close to factual. That isn't the case. I'd much prefer some people just called a spade a spade and were honest that they just don't like Caldwell (or his playing style) and that their opinion of him is never going to change. Which is fine, you can still attempt to pick apart his football as a paying fan.

Those who always say 'I'd be happy to change my mind if results start changing etc' - just absolutely not believable. You aren't willing to change your mind if someone would probably have to win 30 games in a row to change your opinion for a significant period of time (David - not specifically aimed at you this last paragraph - but more broadly across this thread).

Our xG within open play is 26.27 this season, which has us 15th. Out of the teams above us based on xG, only 8 have an xG above 30. So is there such a disparity between us, other clubs and chance creation - statistics would support the answer of no. Don't like the style of play - fine, but saying that we don't create anything is just simply not true. For reference, the team that top the xG this season - Peterborough - way out in front on their own with an xG of 50.92 - some 12 xG's ahead of the team with the second highest xG of 38.26. Only 5 teams have an xG over 25. 12 teams in League One have an xG between 22 -29 - so I'd argue we are pretty bang average for Chances/xG in League One.

People claim the style of play is boring and consists of excessive passes across the backline - not something I see in the the way a lot of people see - but again, thought I'd look to the stats. Comparing our passes per sequence (PPS) with our direct speed (DS m/s) of passes up the park in metres per second gives a rough indication of a teams style of play. When looking at said statistic, we average 2.94 PPS with a DS of 1.89 m/s.

The clubs who play more passes than us, but at a slower rate? Barnsley, Oxford, Bolton, Peterborough and Wigan. If someone had asked you if four out of those five teams were boring to watch - I wonder what the majority of people's answer would have been? Yes, they may have scored more goals than us - but then again - that comes down to finishing - not the style of play surely?

There is only one team that play more passes than us, and slightly quicker - Portsmouth.

The teams that play forward quicker than us, but with less passes are - Cheltenham, Stevenage, Shrewsbury, Carlisle, Wycombe, Cambridge and Derby - again, out of those - who if asked would have highlighted these teams as being 'better' to watch than us?

All the other teams in League One play less passes than us, and at a slower rate forward statistically.

Criticise our finishing by all means, bemoan our return on xG, demand a different formation - whatever it may be, but it isn't fair or as simple as 'we don't create anything'. Not the case. I'd agree with most people on the quality of our finishing - really poor and something that needs addressing.

I'd personally argue that the expectation on League One football as a whole is a lot higher than is actually shown on the pitch, I'm not meaning to suggest that we are all conquering and a fantastic watch - I think we are pretty much an average side, in an average league.

Are we truly awful to watch? Maybe it isn't us that are poor to watch and not entertaining, maybe it's League One more generally....

Where are you getting your stats from E_G?