The Probability Thread 2024 … or … Putting a number to doomed!

[fred binneys head]

Lots of the bottom 6 are playing each other in the remaining games too. Gonna be an interesting end to the season at the top and the bottom.

 

[SaintJames]

Lots of the bottom 6 are playing each other in the remaining games too. Gonna be an interesting end to the season at the top and the bottom.

What a great feeling it is being able to watch on from afar and not get nervous exhaustion worrying about other team's results. The thought of going into the last game needing a point would have given me sleepless nights in the week leading up to Oxford. Now we have the very real possibility that we can enjoy the game without spending most of it glued to our phones

 

[Exehausted]

What a great feeling it is being able to watch on from afar and not get nervous exhaustion worrying about other team's results. The thought of going into the last game needing a point would have given me sleepless nights in the week leading up to Oxford. Now we have the very real possibility that we can enjoy the game without spending most of it glued to our phones

I'm sure that you are right about the Oxford match, but I am getting a little concerned by the apparent "we're now safe after yesterdays terrific win" that seems to have invaded this forum!
We could well be but for me, we need to at least avoid defeat against Charlton and Cheltenham, to be all but sure and a win and a draw to be certain. I'm now really looking forward to Charlton because there will be something on the game for both teams. We now seem to be reproducing our fine away form into decent performances at SJP. To those that call me a miserabilist, I would say realist!

 

[SaintJames]

I'm sure that you are right about the Oxford match, but I am getting a little concerned by the apparent "we're now safe after yesterdays terrific win" that seems to have invaded this forum!
We could well be but for me, we need to at least avoid defeat against Charlton and Cheltenham, to be all but sure and a win and a draw to be certain. I'm now really looking forward to Charlton because there will be something on the game for both teams. We now seem to be reproducing our fine away form into decent performances at SJP. To those that call me a miserabilist, I would say realist!

For me it's not the Charlton game but avoiding defeat to both Cheltenham and Port Vale sees us 100 per cent safe.

 

[grecIAN Harris]

I'm sure that you are right about the Oxford match, but I am getting a little concerned by the apparent "we're now safe after yesterdays terrific win" that seems to have invaded this forum!
We could well be but for me, we need to at least avoid defeat against Charlton and Cheltenham, to be all but sure and a win and a draw to be certain. I'm now really looking forward to Charlton because there will be something on the game for both teams. We now seem to be reproducing our fine away form into decent performances at SJP. To those that call me a miserabilist, I would say realist!

Beat Cheltenham and then you be pretty comfortable in putting the 'we're safe for next season' signs up. It is effectively a six pointer in that regard.
Having said that Cheltenham have got a run of 'do or die' games coming up. Fleetwood and us over Easter, Burton, Carlisle and even Rovers to some extent. If they haven't got themselves out of jail by the time they've played Burton then they're gone. Getting anything out of Lincoln away, Posh at home and Satanage away from their last three games is tough ask

 

[Northants Grecian]

Bet 365 has us at 150/1 to go down - so not impossible but incredibly unlikely

 

[SEA Grecian]

Bet 365 has us at 150/1 to go down - so not impossible but incredibly unlikely

It would need a historically bad collapse in form from us, an equally historic run of performances from Cheltenham and Cambridge to turn around their own catastrophically bad run of form for us to get relegated. One of those might happen but all three seems unlikely.

 

[BigBanker]

We're safe.

 

[cannockred]

Bet 365 has us at 150/1 to go down - so not impossible but incredibly unlikely

Judging from my performance in the betting forum, might put £50 on us and guarantee safety

 

[haka]

Love this thread. 60% chance of going down when it began.

Somebody can work out if we're at zero yet, it's beyond me.