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Who the hell will win the next general election ?

IBA

IBA

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With the Conservatives haemorrhaging support left right and centre to UKIP with Labour struggling with a weak and unpopular leader and seen as economically incompetent , the LibDEms support down to virtually zero.. Who on earth can win the next election ? let's have a heated debate.
 
Mr Jinx

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Think it'll be a hung parliament again. This time with Labour having the most seats (just). Lib Dems will be significantly down (seats in 20s). UKIP may have around 10 seats.

How a coalition will pan out next time will be very interesting. Labour could try and tie up with the SNP and whatever it can muster from Northern Ireland and the Greens.
 
Alistair20000

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Mr Jinx said:
Think it'll be a hung parliament again. This time with Labour having the most seats (just). Lib Dems will be significantly down (seats in 20s). UKIP may have around 10 seats.

How a coalition will pan out next time will be very interesting. Labour could try and tie up with the SNP and whatever it can muster from Northern Ireland and the Greens.
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Lib Dems will do a bit better than that Jinxster. The incumbent Lib Dems dig in well and are very hard to unseat.

As for UKIP who knows after last night ?

I agree it is probable that Conservative and Labour will be about level. Reminds me of the Feb 1974 election which was followed by one of the worst governments ever leading ultimately to Mrs T.
 
Jason H

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My head still says a Labour lead without an overall majority, possibly enough seats to only have to join with the Lib Dems rather than any sort of rainbow coalition.

My head also says that this will be the case even with the Conservatives securing more of the popular vote (Conservatives have, at least until last night's results, been creeping level/slightly ahead in the polls).*

My heart says the Conservatives will have a majority of 100. Silly heart.





*No, I'd still be against PR, before you ask. But the abandoned boundary review should be reinstated ASAP to level up constituencies.
 
Mr Jinx

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Alistair20000 said:
Lib Dems will do a bit better than that Jinxster. The incumbent Lib Dems dig in well and are very hard to unseat.

As for UKIP who knows after last night ?

I agree it is probable that Conservative and Labour will be about level. Reminds me of the Feb 1974 election which was followed by one of the worst governments ever leading ultimately to Mrs T.
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If the Lib Dems get more than 29 seats at the next GE, I will eat my hat. Missed amongst all the Tory/Labour bickering today is the fact the LibDem vote has completely collapsed and has for a while. Will they get 22% of the vote again (like 2010)? They will be lucky to get 10% and this will be concentrated in the tiniest of pockets (Eastleigh etc).

The next government will undoubtedly be another fragile & weak one (I think Milliband will be PM somehow), but I'm certain that in 2020 (if not before), just like '79, there'll be a Churchillian phoenix rising from the ashes.
 
Alistair20000

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Mr Jinx said:
If the Lib Dems get more than 29 seats at the next GE, I will eat my hat. Missed amongst all the Tory/Labour bickering today is the fact the LibDem vote has completely collapsed and has for a while. Will they get 22% of the vote again (like 2010)? They will be lucky to get 10% and this will be concentrated in the tiniest of pockets (Eastleigh etc).

The next government will undoubtedly be another fragile & weak one (I think Milliband will be PM somehow), but I'm certain that in 2020 (if not before), just like '79, there'll be a Churchillian phoenix rising from the ashes.
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I think the Lib Dems will get more than 29 seats Jinxster. Shall we have a modest wager that if I am right you will publicly consume the whole of the aforementioned hat at an agreed City match (home or away) and if you are right I will treat you to a drink and pub meal ?

Any perdiction on the identity of this strong man/woman who might emerge ?
 
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Alistair20000

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Jason H said:
My head still says a Labour lead without an overall majority, possibly enough seats to only have to join with the Lib Dems rather than any sort of rainbow coalition.

My head also says that this will be the case even with the Conservatives securing more of the popular vote (Conservatives have, at least until last night's results, been creeping level/slightly ahead in the polls).*

My heart says the Conservatives will have a majority of 100. Silly heart.





*No, I'd still be against PR, before you ask. But the abandoned boundary review should be reinstated ASAP to level up constituencies.
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I will join the Jinxster's approach and offer to eat one of Lammie's many hats if there is a Conservative majority of at least 100.

You can also bet your boots that if there is a Lab or Lib/Lab government it will find a weasel lame ass excuse to boot the boundary review into the long grass.
 
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Jason H

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Alistair20000 said:
I will join the Jinxster's approach and offer to eat one of Lammie's many hats if there is a Conservative majority of at least 100.

You can also bet your boots that if there is a Lab or Lib/Lab government it will find a weasel lame ass excuse to boot the boundary review into the long grass.
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I believe there HAS to be a boundary review during the time of the next parliament, but don't quote me on that.
 
Alistair20000

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Jason H said:
I believe there HAS to be a boundary review during the time of the next parliament, but don't quote me on that.
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These counts know how to wriggle out of anything Jase. Sunny Jim (ho ho ho fella m'lad) Callaghan did precisely that during the 1974/79 Labour Lib/Lab terror.
 
Jason H

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Alistair20000 said:
These counts know how to wriggle out of anything Jase. Sunny Jim (ho ho ho fella m'lad) Callaghan did precisely that during the 1974/79 Labour Lib/Lab terror.
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I suspect Liverpool and Glasgow will gain an extra 27 MPs each and there will be a new constituency called "The South (excluding London)" with an electorate of 3 million.
 
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