Caldwell out?

[Devon Red]

Where are you getting your stats from E_G?

@G_C4LDW311 on twitter I think

 

[ramone]

When we were going through similar stuff with Tis there were banners and planned protests to get him out of the job , Are people not allowed to do similar within the ground nowadays or are the noisy ones content to leave him on the comfy chair with no fear of backlash from the BB ?

 

[cannockred]

Like I said, I do look at stats and use Xg to see trends of form and whether a side is over or underperforming, however my reasoning for not wanting Caldwell as manager has nothing to do with stats, it's the fact that I've spent over £300 on a season ticket this season and the most excitement I've had is buying a bovril on my way into the ground.

Even if we stay up this season, my opinion on the manager won't change until I start enjoying home games again.

Serious questions.
Would you have been happier if we were all but down BUT the football was more enjoyable?

Or would you have been happier if the football remained the same BUT we were in the playoffs with a chance of autos?

 

[elginCity]

Mark Bonner is still available and trying to get a job. Similar to MT in terms of an academy background and was wanted by Rotherham not too long ago.

The U's got rid of Bonner a couple of months ago, have since hired Neil Harris before he quickly jumped ship to Millwall. Barry Corr interim and now Garry Monk just appointed, having been out of the game for 4 years. They're all over the place, having lost 4 of their last 5 games and still in the doldrums, will be interesting to see how they go from now on. Changing the manager mid-season is not always a guaranteed panacea.

 

[Antony Moxey]

The U's got rid of Bonner a couple of months ago, have since hired Neil Harris before he quickly jumped ship to Millwall. Barry Corr interim and now Garry Monk just appointed, having been out of the game for 4 years. They're all over the place, having lost 4 of their last 5 games and still in the doldrums, will be interesting to see how they go from now on. Changing the manager mid-season is not always a guaranteed panacea.

Neither is it turning the club into Watford with two and sometimes three different managers a season. People always seem to refer to the ultra-extreme examples to illustrate a point - under Trust ownership we've never fired a manager so to do so isn't setting a precedent, it's just acknowledging that it's time for a change as the current one isn't working. Keeping a manager that's not performing because we give managers time and it's not what we've done before isn't necessarily the answer either.

 

[Super Ronnie Jepson]

It isn't defending the indefensible when you make out that your subjective opinion is or close to factual. That isn't the case. I'd much prefer some people just called a spade a spade and were honest that they just don't like Caldwell (or his playing style) and that their opinion of him is never going to change. Which is fine, you can still attempt to pick apart his football as a paying fan.

Those who always say 'I'd be happy to change my mind if results start changing etc' - just absolutely not believable. You aren't willing to change your mind if someone would probably have to win 30 games in a row to change your opinion for a significant period of time (David - not specifically aimed at you this last paragraph - but more broadly across this thread).

Our xG within open play is 26.27 this season, which has us 15th. Out of the teams above us based on xG, only 8 have an xG above 30. So is there such a disparity between us, other clubs and chance creation - statistics would support the answer of no. Don't like the style of play - fine, but saying that we don't create anything is just simply not true. For reference, the team that top the xG this season - Peterborough - way out in front on their own with an xG of 50.92 - some 12 xG's ahead of the team with the second highest xG of 38.26. Only 5 teams have an xG over 25. 12 teams in League One have an xG between 22 -29 - so I'd argue we are pretty bang average for Chances/xG in League One.

People claim the style of play is boring and consists of excessive passes across the backline - not something I see in the the way a lot of people see - but again, thought I'd look to the stats. Comparing our passes per sequence (PPS) with our direct speed (DS m/s) of passes up the park in metres per second gives a rough indication of a teams style of play. When looking at said statistic, we average 2.94 PPS with a DS of 1.89 m/s.

The clubs who play more passes than us, but at a slower rate? Barnsley, Oxford, Bolton, Peterborough and Wigan. If someone had asked you if four out of those five teams were boring to watch - I wonder what the majority of people's answer would have been? Yes, they may have scored more goals than us - but then again - that comes down to finishing - not the style of play surely?

There is only one team that play more passes than us, and slightly quicker - Portsmouth.

The teams that play forward quicker than us, but with less passes are - Cheltenham, Stevenage, Shrewsbury, Carlisle, Wycombe, Cambridge and Derby - again, out of those - who if asked would have highlighted these teams as being 'better' to watch than us?

All the other teams in League One play less passes than us, and at a slower rate forward statistically.

Criticise our finishing by all means, bemoan our return on xG, demand a different formation - whatever it may be, but it isn't fair or as simple as 'we don't create anything'. Not the case. I'd agree with most people on the quality of our finishing - really poor and something that needs addressing.

I'd personally argue that the expectation on League One football as a whole is a lot higher than is actually shown on the pitch, I'm not meaning to suggest that we are all conquering and a fantastic watch - I think we are pretty much an average side, in an average league.

Are we truly awful to watch? Maybe it isn't us that are poor to watch and not entertaining, maybe it's League One more generally....

I can pass a ball sideways really quickly but it's not going to entertain anyone.

 

[elginCity]

Neither is it turning the club into Watford with two and sometimes three different managers a season. People always seem to refer to the ultra-extreme examples to illustrate a point - under Trust ownership we've never fired a manager so to do so isn't setting a precedent, it's just acknowledging that it's time for a change as the current one isn't working. Keeping a manager that's not performing because we give managers time and it's not what we've done before isn't necessarily the answer either.

Watford might be an 'ultra-extreme' example, not quite sure how you figure Cambridge United is. That said, unlike ourselves they both have multimillionaire owners with deep pockets - Pozzo and Barry - that allows them the luxury of being able to stick or twist on a whim mid-season.

 

[Exiled_Grecian]

Your stats don’t really prove anything either way do they? Some good teams do well playing one way other good teams do well playing another way.

As I said results and points are what matters and a modicum of excitement/entertainment thrown in would be desirable.

Adam was bold, we had no answer. Have you seen our team under GC make bold changes that have significantly changed the course of games?

Has it occurred to you that our underperformance of xG is down to the fact we have no guile in the final third (Cole excepted) and couldn’t hit a cows ar*se with a banjo?

The manager built the squad and deploys the tactics.

My intention through the stats used were to highlight that some of the criticisms levelled at GC and our playing style aren't really reflected in the stats, which may indicate that the criticisms are somewhat unfair. As I've said before, they aren't intended to make out that we are brilliant and they aren't intended to remove any sort of pressure from the manager, just that IMO any criticism should be supported by evidence before being used as a stick to beat someone with.

I've seen him make changes IMO that have affected a game/result before yes - what do you classify as bold? He changed our shape slightly away at Stevenage (for example) and I'd argue that significantly contributed to us getting a point.

But that supports my point doesn't it - the fact we underperform xG doesn't mean we don't create 'anything'. It means like you say that it's our finishing that is poor and lets us down - that's not a tactic, that's a skill from the players, but granted, one that can and evidently should be worked on more in training.

 

[Exiled_Grecian]

I can pass a ball sideways really quickly but it's not going to entertain anyone.

Luckily that stats I presented don't cover the pace of sideways passes as input into the m/s stat then isn't it. The DS m/s is an indicator of how quickly a team, on average, moves the ball upfield. Hence why it can broadly be used to inference a teams 'style of play' - slow and technical v fast and direct.

 

[Exiled_Grecian]

Where are you getting your stats from E_G?

Use a number, some that require accounts and subscriptions. The free ones that I often use that are quite good are:

Theanalyst.com
Fotmob.com
soccerstats.com
fbref.com