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The threat of Coronavirus to ECFC

malcolms

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Malcs, I'm pretty sure that I've acknowledged on this thread and/or the Politics thread that the collateral, economic damage will be massive. But lives come first. Imo you deal with the most pressing issue first and the less pressing issues later. It won't be the first time or the last that the world economy will shake.
Nobody asked for this problem and nobody wants it, but as the cliche goes , "it is what it is". Save lives first.
Not sure I've suggested that we do otherwise Mike. It's just the 'hyping' of every figure and detail serves no purpose other than creating mass hysteria, which will distort our decision making process.
 

edwin_price

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Not sure I've suggested that we do otherwise Mike. It's just the 'hyping' of every figure and detail serves no purpose other than creating mass hysteria, which will distort our decision making process.
You need to have as good an estimate as possible to make good decisions. The number of people tested positive is not the best available estimate. No one knows. But people DO have to make decisions based on an estimate. The 10k figure may be out by a long way, but it's an estimate based on data, not plucked from the clear blue sky. Working on the assumption theres 800 cases is moronic.

The UKs response is a lot lighter in touch to the rest of the world. Feel like the wiser-than-thou it's all hyped brigade haven't noticed that this one is actually happening. Its not a maybe... Were on the cusp of it.
 

older-codger

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If it is 10,000 as quoted by the chief scientific officer, then it can't be affecting the vast majority of the people too badly if they aren't actually even looking for treatment. Interesting also that he quoted in the same interview that 8,000 had died from flu this season. 8,000 actual deaths compared to 11 out of 10,000+ doesn't convince me that it is as bad as is portrayed.

Having been at the forefront in dealing with the Avian and swine flus that created similar panics, I remain to be convinced, even if I am in the so-called vulnerable group.
 

edwin_price

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If it is 10,000 as quoted by the chief scientific officer, then it can't be affecting the vast majority of the people too badly if they aren't actually even looking for treatment. Interesting also that he quoted in the same interview that 8,000 had died from flu this season. 8,000 actual deaths compared to 11 out of 10,000+ doesn't convince me that it is as bad as is portrayed.

Having been at the forefront in dealing with the Avian and swine flus that created similar panics, I remain to be convinced, even if I am in the so-called vulnerable group.
Bad maths.
 

older-codger

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Bad maths.
Pardon? I didn't use maths - only quoted apparent facts
 

edwin_price

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Pardon? I didn't use maths - only quoted apparent facts
Sure. There's 11 deaths. But considering that as 11 out of 10,000 isn't right. 10,000 is an estimate of current infections. There's a period of time between becoming ill and dying. In China, I believe it averaged 28 days. Doubling period is just over 6 days.

So, 11 deaths correspond to infection rate weeks ago. No one knows the death rate (because no one knows number of mild cases). 1% death rate means there were 1100 infections weeks ago. 6 day doubling period. That's 2200 after 6 days, 4400 after 12, 8800 after 18, etc...

IF there's 10,000 cases now, thats 100. But the doubling rate means on Friday, it'll be 20,000, then 40000 next Thursday, etc. If you doubt it, look at the countries where its taken hold and see how it develops. Ask what tools we've got to stop or slow it. Why will our experience be better? The government are saying prepare to lose family. Countries a few weeks ahead are dying in droves. At this point, I can't see how anyone could convince themselves it's all a fuss over nothing.

Also, if its a lot less than 10k infected, thats really bad news as it means the death rate is well over 1%
 

older-codger

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Sure. There's 11 deaths. But considering that as 11 out of 10,000 isn't right. 10,000 is an estimate of current infections. There's a period of time between becoming ill and dying. In China, I believe it averaged 28 days. Doubling period is just over 6 days.

So, 11 deaths correspond to infection rate weeks ago. No one knows the death rate (because no one knows number of mild cases). 1% death rate means there were 1100 infections weeks ago. 6 day doubling period. That's 2200 after 6 days, 4400 after 12, 8800 after 18, etc...

IF there's 10,000 cases now, thats 100. But the doubling rate means on Friday, it'll be 20,000, then 40000 next Thursday, etc. If you doubt it, look at the countries where its taken hold and see how it develops. Ask what tools we've got to stop or slow it. Why will our experience be better? The government are saying prepare to lose family. Countries a few weeks ahead are dying in droves. At this point, I can't see how anyone could convince themselves it's all a fuss over nothing.

Also, if its a lot less than 10k infected, thats really bad news as it means the death rate is well over 1%
If you want to use hypothetical figures then you may as well compare it to the population of just over 60 million. The proportion of the population contracting flu to the effect that it is fatal =8000 in 60 mill in this country. The total deaths from coronavirus in China is 3189 in a population of 1.4 billion. So this virus which was so virulent in China but is now waning, has resulted in a death rate of less than half that of flu in this country even with a population of 18 times that of UK being exposed to it.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
 

edwin_price

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If you want to use hypothetical figures then you may as well compare it to the population of just over 60 million. The proportion of the population contracting flu to the effect that it is fatal =8000 in 60 mill in this country. The total deaths from coronavirus in China is 3189 in a population of 1.4 billion. So this virus which was so virulent in China but is now waning, has resulted in a death rate of less than half that of flu in this country even with a population of 18 times that of UK being exposed to it.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
China threw the kitchen sink at it to stop it. Did you miss the news?
 

malcolms

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Duplicate post
 

malcolms

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This is the last time i'll post on this topic because its becoming abusive. Clearly, you're not going to accept China's figures, but the latest info we have from there is just over 80,000 confirmed cases, in a nation of 1.5 billion with 3100 deaths since the outbreak began in January, yet you suggest that the UK with a population of 60 million will have 40,000 cases by next Thursday. It's this sort of hyperbole which I find difficult and suggest only adds to the mass panic we are seeing...
 
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