The threat of Coronavirus to ECFC

edwin_price

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Feb 6, 2005
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Problem with tracking the cases is its dependent on number of tests (and testing strategy)... Something we're told is going to hugely increase soon.

Problem with tracking the deaths is there is a lag of weeks from the transmission. So any reduction in the rate of transmission won't be visible for a long while.
 

John William

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Dec 14, 2009
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Hummingbirds hum, why do they hum?
Problem with tracking the cases is its dependent on number of tests (and testing strategy)... Something we're told is going to hugely increase soon.

Problem with tracking the deaths is there is a lag of weeks from the transmission. So any reduction in the rate of transmission won't be visible for a long while.
Also a data, measuring and definitional problem, especially with the obsession the media has with comparing countries.

Importantly, not everyone that dies with coronavirus dies because of coronavirus.
 

Egg

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I am on the lookout for when we have good news from the figures. There seem to be some really talented mathematicians on here who might be able to help. It would be a good sign when the *rate of increase* starts to slow ( rather than either total numbers or the number of new cases per day)

i was following the number of new cases each day. On average they we’re going up about 20% each day. So if there ten new cases yesterday you would expect 12 new cases today. That arithmetic is of course frightening because it means cases per day quadrupling in a week. And that means from one per day within a month you get 250 per day. In two months over 60,000 per day and in three months almost everyone who is going to get it has done so. So sooner or later that rate of increase must slow

unfortunately this has been the early pattern, first with cases then with deaths. And it appears that the rate of increase may itself have increased in recent days.Indeed the Prime minister says it will continue to get worse before it gets better.

so I am reduced to hoping that the number of deaths today is no
higher than yesterday (260) +20%= 312. am I right in thinking this would be a start? ( and doubtless a seven day moving average comparing the last seven days to the seven before would iron out random daily fluctuations)
This is pretty good:
 
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