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The Probability Thread 2021 … now with website: probs4.club

Grecian Max

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Need to win 2 out of every 3 games for the rest of the season. Unrealistic. I expect us to just about scrape into the playoffs again and have another year of disappointment.
I'm not sure, we could get 79 points, which was enough for 2nd and 3rd when Bury and MK went up with 8 wins 4 draws 3 losses, just over a win every other game

Similarly, we don't tend to scrape into the play offs when we've made them, in fact being comfortable - if we were 4-7th then I expect us to be pretty comfortably within there.
 

Grecian Max

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Bradford over 15 games have collected a massive 34 points, whilst Tranmere have taken 30. Are either of these 2 massively better than us? On the performances against us I'd say no....

Either of those tallies in the last 15 games would get us autos.
 

John William

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Bradford over 15 games have collected a massive 34 points, whilst Tranmere have taken 30. Are either of these 2 massively better than us? On the performances against us I'd say no....

Either of those tallies in the last 15 games would get us autos.
This.

We need to average two points a game, 30 more points, from the last 15 games, to be in the pound seats for automatic promotion, though it could well need a couple less. Not impossible, it's been done regularly in the past, but we need to turn draws into wins to do that.

The pessimist in me expects another playoff heartache.:(:(:(:(
 

StroudGrecian

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Not sure that's still going this season. What about the FA Youth Cup?
Flashscore has the last-16 games scheduled from 19th March to 3rd April, with us playing Leicester on the 3rd.
 
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View attachment 5657City's automatic promotion chances have gone down to 4.8% from 35.2% after the last two defeats.

5656

more charts at:
 
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Only positive point I can get from yesterday's results is with Bradford, Carlisle, Crawley & Salford failing to win good chance playoffs places will be filled with the current top 8.
 
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5658
so 24 points from 12 games (W7,D3,L2) only give ~20% chance of autos ... is it possible to better 2 points per game?
 

Trapdoor

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Is it possible to better 2 points per game?
Yes, you can get 3 points per game. ;)
 

Northants Grecian

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In a meeting somewhere, some place...
View attachment 5657City's automatic promotion chances have gone down to 4.8% from 35.2% after the last two defeats.

View attachment 5656

more charts at:
Presuming that’s now done to 1% max after last night
 

andrew p long

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should this be renamed the *possibility* thread instead...
 
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