The Probability Thread 2021 … now with website: probs4.club

Joined
Apr 17, 2008
Messages
485
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www.probs4.club
The Probability Thread has returned and with the help of lockdowns and a general stay-at-home mentality I have managed to totally re-write the calculations, expand the charts and create a website to host said charts.
The website is … http://www.probs4.club (the home page is fairly naff … so do look beyond it)
The website covers the top four English leagues, the most important links are:
The calculation has been refined slightly, but are still based on:
  • Season Form (points per game, Home & away)
  • Current Form (last six home & away games, weighted so more recent games have more influence)
  • Plus a random factor, as we know whatever has happened up to now can only be a guide to the future (e.g. Carlisle, Bolton & Bradford since end of January), the random factor hopefully gives a realist spread to the possible outcomes.
It does not take into account, injuries or suspensions of star players, new manager or the “with all the money {team-x} has spent surly they should be doing better”.

I’m sure my calculations/model is not perfect, but I have plans to run the calculations against previous seasons to refine and improve my model, but that will be for next season.

I still have plans to add a couple more chart over the next few weeks.

Hope you enjoy the website, feel free to ask questions and to share the website with others.

**** this post marks the official go live of probs4.club ****
 

RedPaul

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Joined
Apr 23, 2004
Messages
5,057
Location
Woking
Brilliant GoT. I was only thinking at lunchtime it must be about time for a probability thread!

So 72 points for play offs and 80 points for a high chance of promotion

22 and 30 points from 15 games respectively. 30 looks very tough (W9 D3 L3) but 22 is very achievable.
 
Joined
Apr 17, 2008
Messages
485
Location
www.probs4.club
5554
Forgot to mention:
Charts are interactive, tooltips popup when hover over data points & series highlighted when hover over legend.

Website is hopefully usable on mobiles.

Charts don't appear to work if you are using Internet Explorer, advice ... don't use Internet Explorer :)
 

IndoMike

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
May 9, 2010
Messages
30,152
Location
Touring Central Java...
The Probability Thread has returned and with the help of lockdowns and a general stay-at-home mentality I have managed to totally re-write the calculations, expand the charts and create a website to host said charts.
The website is … http://www.probs4.club (the home page is fairly naff … so do look beyond it)
The website covers the top four English leagues, the most important links are:
The calculation has been refined slightly, but are still based on:
  • Season Form (points per game, Home & away)
  • Current Form (last six home & away games, weighted so more recent games have more influence)
  • Plus a random factor, as we know whatever has happened up to now can only be a guide to the future (e.g. Carlisle, Bolton & Bradford since end of January), the random factor hopefully gives a realist spread to the possible outcomes.
It does not take into account, injuries or suspensions of star players, new manager or the “with all the money {team-x} has spent surly they should be doing better”.

I’m sure my calculations/model is not perfect, but I have plans to run the calculations against previous seasons to refine and improve my model, but that will be for next season.

I still have plans to add a couple more chart over the next few weeks.

Hope you enjoy the website, feel free to ask questions and to share the website with others.

**** this post marks the official go live of probs4.club ****
No wonder you're winning the betting competition. .
 
Joined
Apr 17, 2008
Messages
485
Location
www.probs4.club
Brilliant GoT. I was only thinking at lunchtime it must be about time for a probability thread!

So 72 points for play offs and 80 points for a high chance of promotion

22 and 30 points from 15 games respectively. 30 looks very tough (W9 D3 L3) but 22 is very achievable.
Autos do look a tough target, looking at it as a range:
slim ~10% 75pts wdl: 7/4/4
to mid point ~50% 78pts 8/4/3 or 9/1/6 (if we stop drawing)
to very likely ~90% 81pts 9/4/2 or 10/1/5

We did get 27pts from our first 15 games (7/6/2) repeat that & City would have 77pts (31.5% autos)

You're right Autos will be tough!
 

SEA Grecian

Active member
Joined
Oct 14, 2018
Messages
2,218
Thanks GoT. Backs up what I guess a lot of us are thinking; we have a pretty good chance of making the play-offs but the autos look unlikely.
 

Max Payne 2

Active member
Joined
Jun 27, 2005
Messages
1,784
Location
Melbourne
The sort of year where we either break our playoff finals curse by not making it to the final (First time ever) or winning the lot (1/5).
 

Trapdoor

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2020
Messages
390
Need to win 2 out of every 3 games for the rest of the season. Unrealistic. I expect us to just about scrape into the playoffs again and have another year of disappointment.
 
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