The Probability Thread 2009

Pete Martin (CTID)

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Fascinating stuff Poundstretcher! Just for the record, Michael Wray's prediction spreadsheet, based on current results to date, shows the following:-



:D :D :D
 
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… second attempt pics hopefully included this time …..

Like Poundstretcher I’ve been working on a final table model using Monte Carlo / Bayesian methods (…. blah blah blah). I guess the main difference is the percentage assigned to win/draw/loss for each game is based on a ranking for each team, e.g. all games between promotion contenders are assigned 50%/25%/25% (Home/Draw/Away), promotion contenders v “low” performing teams 70%/20%/10% or when away 20%/30%/50% - but the final outcome will not be to different.

So first pretty picture (graph) with City’s predicted points – showing 90% 50% and 10% percentile and the model’s result for Auto promotion and Play-off place shown with 90/50/10 percentiles. So currently the model suggest Auto Promotion will most likely be gain with between 74-78 point (76 as an mid-point), Playoff 68-72 (70 average), Exeter’s range 70-78 (74 mid-point).
Over time since 14/3 the graph shows City’s likely points tally has gone down a bit but the Auto Promotion points have gone down more, therefore our chance of promotion will have gone up (a bit).



My finial two pictures (a little easier to understand) Percentage chance for promotion.



Percentage chance for gaining at least Playoff place



(note: the two entries for 28/3 are because I made some changes to some teams “rankings” – inc. moving Gillingham & Chestefield into the same group as other promotion/playoff contenders.)
 

Poultice

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So, what you are saying is, because Brentford have got more points than everybody else they are more likely to go up ? Fecking brilliant this maffmatics, and to think to come to the same conclusions us fickos would have to go to all the trouble of looking at the table.

I would point out that most of the banking and insurance world base their decisions on strange things called J curves which the mucho clever maffs create on huge computers to calculate risk, and we all know how right they were, coughs.
 

finetime

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I would point out that most of the banking and insurance world base their decisions on strange things called J curves which the mucho clever maffs create on huge computers to calculate risk, and we all know how right they were, coughs.
Financial sector-wise the maths is generally faultless. The greed and apparent risk, however, is a totally different matter.

The second set give us about a 1/3 chance of auto which feels about right when looking at the table, our fixtures and our form. I'd have taken this at the start of the season especially with the back-up option of the potentially lucrative playoffs!

Happy days :)
 

Poultice

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Financial sector-wise the maths is generally faultless. The greed and apparent risk, however, is a totally different matter.
Yeah we all computers can add up, trouble is they can't think for themselves.
 
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