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The Politics Thread USA Edition

angelic upstart

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Latest estimates coming out are Biden to win the popular vote by 6 million, but Trump to win the Electoral college by a whisker with 278 EVs. Dems keep the house, Republicans the Senate.

If that happens, there will be unrest.
I can see why the majority of voters would be unhappy.
I was annoyed that the conservatives gained 45/50 seats on a gain of 1 percent share of the vote at the last election. Not necessarily annoyed with the victory as they were clearly the most popular party but annoyed that a few years ago UKIP got 12% of the vote and ended up with nothing, then a 1% swing gives the conservatives a 45/50 seat gain. Simply not fair.
 

Hermann

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Latest estimates coming out are Biden to win the popular vote by 6 million, but Trump to win the Electoral college by a whisker with 278 EVs. Dems keep the house, Republicans the Senate.

If that happens, there will be unrest.
I'd be surprised at Democrats doing that so well and not taking the Senate, given the seats available. I suppose it is marginally less likely without the vice presidency.
 

Alistair20000

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So, if you add up all the solid Democrat states, plus those where Biden has a lead beyond the margin of error, he just gets over the line with 272 electors.

Trump on the other hand needs to win all of the Republican margin of error states, plus all the toss up states, plus at least 8 electors from the Democrat leans (1 or 2 states depending on size).

If Trump loses any of the bigger toss ups, Florida or Ohio for example, it's almost impossible for him to win.

There are good reasons people are rating Biden's chances so highly. Doesn't mean they're right of course.
I think I heard on the wireless today that no Republican President has ever been elected without winning Ohio.
 

RedPaul

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I am looking forward to watching Andrew Neil's BBC farewell tonight covering the US election.

I know many will accuse him of being some uber right winger, partly due to his previous roles editing the ST under Murdoch and being Chairman (not Editor) of the Spectator, but I don't think any other political journalist has the breadth of knowledge across issues that he does and holds politicians of all parties to account in every interview. All with a sense of humour.
 

Hermann

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I think I heard on the wireless today that no Republican President has ever been elected without winning Ohio.
I imagine the same goes for Florida? Either way there are 4 toss ups with over 15 electors each. Trump most likely needs all of them. I reckon he'll take Ohio, Georgia and probably Florida. North Carolina is the worry for him.
 

Hermann

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Ohio is of course the traditional bellwether state. They've only voted for the loser twice since 1900, and the last time was 1960.
 

RedPaul

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Maybe Trump will take CA and NY and throw the whole thing wide open?
After all Johnson took Bolsover and Bishop Auckland so strange things can happen!
 

Alistair20000

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I imagine the same goes for Florida? Either way there are 4 toss ups with over 15 electors each. Trump most likely needs all of them. I reckon he'll take Ohio, Georgia and probably Florida. North Carolina is the worry for him.
I think so in modern times. It is a bellwether state and only Democrats Bill Clinton in 1992 and John F Kennedy in 1960 failed to win it while at the same time becoming President.

Cannot see a path to the White House for Trump if he fails to take Florida but Biden might be able to afford to lose it
 

Hermann

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Maybe Trump will take CA and NY and throw the whole thing wide open?
After all Johnson took Bolsover and Bishop Auckland so strange things can happen!
Wasn't so long ago that Texas would have been in the same bracket.
 

Hermann

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I think so in modern times. It is a bellwether state and only Democrats Bill Clinton in 1992 and John F Kennedy in 1960 failed to win it while at the same time becoming President.

Cannot see a path to the White House for Trump if he fails to take Florida but Biden might be able to afford to lose it
Biden definitely can, in fact he can just about afford to lose all four of those states, so long as he captures everywhere leaning Democrat
 
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