The Politics Thread USA Edition

Mr Jinx

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Doesn't matter how close you are to anyone, at this stage that is a bloody stupid bet.

Re. Clinton, most of the late polls have her in the 3-4% range, some less than that, with the odd outlier more. She had a bigger lead earlier on in the race.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election?wprov=sfla1
All bets are stupid. Unless you win of course.

Look, as I've said before, you could of course be right. The polls do tend to get it right from time to time. At the end of the day, it's just a feeling. Biden is obviously less toxic than Hilary, but he doesn't really enthuse (not like Obama, not like Mr Clinton), and as we have seen in recent elections here, that's usually what it boils down to.
 

Hermann

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So, if you add up all the solid Democrat states, plus those where Biden has a lead beyond the margin of error, he just gets over the line with 272 electors.

Trump on the other hand needs to win all of the Republican margin of error states, plus all the toss up states, plus at least 8 electors from the Democrat leans (1 or 2 states depending on size).

If Trump loses any of the bigger toss ups, Florida or Ohio for example, it's almost impossible for him to win.

There are good reasons people are rating Biden's chances so highly. Doesn't mean they're right of course.
 

Mr Jinx

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Trump on the other hand needs to win all of the Republican margin of error states, plus all the toss up states, plus at least 8 electors from the Democrat leans (1 or 2 states depending on size).

If Trump loses any of the bigger toss ups, Florida or Ohio for example, it's almost impossible for him to win.
mmm...now where have I heard all his before? mmm
 

Mr Jinx

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Not with Clinton if that's what you're implying. Her numbers were never anywhere near that good.
They were on the day (95% certain).

Agree with you though. If Trump loses any one of the toss up states (or even Texas, whodathought it), he's toast. It goes without saying.
 

Hermann

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Incidentally most polls only gave Obama a 3-4% lead in the days just before the 2012 election.
 

Hermann

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They were on the day (95% certain).

Agree with you though. If Trump loses any one of the toss up states (or even Texas, whodathought it), he's toast. It goes without saying.
I'm not sure where they got that from, because it's certainly not shown in the polling data.
 

elginCity

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....Biden is obviously less toxic than Hilary, but he doesn't really enthuse (not like Obama, not like Mr Clinton), and as we have seen in recent elections here, that's usually what it boils down to...
You sense the Anti-Trump sentiment is stronger than Pro-Biden, that's what it could boil down to in this election.
 

DB9

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You're not cut out for politics I'm afraid
Never wanted to stand, I have realized over that past decade or so that politicians of all colours take for granted the people, Line their own pockets etc What I don't get is why they are surprised when the people have had enough and vote in a populist person like Trump, The political Status Quo doesn't help the people and Trump latched onto this and won.
 
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