The Auto(s) Charge

[STURTZ]

Didn't we lose that tie? Dixie McNeil scoring against us......

You could be right, was such a long time ago I could barely see over the fence!

Seem to remember they had Kim Book in goal. He was the brother of Man City's Tony Book and was the goalie when George Best put 6 past them in the cup.

 

[grecian-near-hell]

Well last nights results didn't go as predicted with both Northampton and Port Vale only managing to draw with their lowly opponents. Walsall letting the side down by being pulverised by Swindon, allowing them to take our place as the team with the second best goal difference. Bristol Rovers (our opponents on Saturday) win last night has also lifted them into the top ten, currently lying in ninth on 47 points, 6 behind us but having played a game more. They are on a bit of a run at the moment having lost one match in ten and have won their last three matches and not conceded in four (sound familiar). They last lost at home to Port Vale on the 7th December.

Northampton's draw last night was enough to lift them to second on goal difference having played two more games than ourselves, and Swindon's win has lifted them up to 5th, one point behind us and also having played two more matches than us. Unfortunately for Port Vale their draw didn't help them, and they have drifted down to tenth.

Onto Saturday's matches and there are two clashes among the top ten, ourselves way to Bristol Rovers and Newport at Home to Tranmere. The rest is a bit of a mixed bag but as we saw last night difficult to predict, will John Yems' Crawly do us a favour and take all three points off the Vegans, difficult t see but who would have predicted Scunthorpe drawing with Northampton last night. The fixtures are

Home Team	Position	Current Home Form	Away Team	Position	Current Away Form	Prediction	Home Team Points after Prediction	Away Team points after prediction
Bradford City	15th	19th	Mansfield Town	7th	7th	Away Win	40	53
Crawley Town	14th	18th	The Vegans	1st	4th	Away Win	40	69
Newport County	8th	6th	Tranmere Rovers	3rd	9th	Home Win	52	56
Port Vale	10th	15th	Stevenage	19th	20th	Draw	47	34
Rochdale	16th	13th	Northampton	2nd	8th	Draw	36	57
Sutton Utd	6th	11th	Scunthorpe Utd	24th	22nd	Home win	54	23
Swindon Town	5th	5th	Salford City	11th	5th	Draw	53	45

It is still very tight and after Saturday's results we could be any where from second to sixth. Next week there are also seven midweek matches which we are not part of and will mean we have more games in hands on our competitors. Games in hand throws everything in the air, and for me it is better to have the points on the door than speculate on what might be (perhaps it's the Exeter fan in me) but if we can be in second or third after five o'clock Saturday we are heading in the right direction with one helluva busy March coming up.

 

[andrew p long]

On the 'are we (mathematically ) safe yet?', the answer remains 'no'. It is perfectly feasible for a side with 53 points at the end of the season to go down.

The second lowest possible points that could be gained is 73 (Carlisle and Colchester) As they have to play each other the second lowest team can gain no more than 71 (and probably one or two fewer due to other games between teams near the bottom).

So probably a few weeks yet for safety. But on things that can't happen Scunthorpe can no longer win League Two and FGR can't now finish bottom!

 

[Trapdoor]

When was the last time a team was relegated on 53 points?

 

[Devon Red]

When was the last time a team was relegated on 53 points?

I've gone back to 2005 and got bored, the most a team has been relegated on in that time is 51 points.

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

When was the last time a team was relegated on 53 points?

Since 3pts for win ('81/2 season) across all 24 team completed EFL seasons [107 in total], 50+ points have given 23rd place three times.

Barnet_2013_4_51_23"
BristolR_2014_4_50_23"
Wolves_2013_2_51_23"

(Note: retrieved from dataset built on results, so this would ignore any points deductions - not checked if this might have affected the above three cases)

 

[Grecian-on-Tyne]

On the 'are we (mathematically ) safe yet?', the answer remains 'no'. It is perfectly feasible for a side with 53 points at the end of the season to go down.

The second lowest possible points that could be gained is 73 (Carlisle and Colchester) As they have to play each other the second lowest team can gain no more than 71 (and probably one or two fewer due to other games between teams near the bottom).

So probably a few weeks yet for safety. But on things that can't happen Scunthorpe can no longer win League Two and FGR can't now finish bottom!

Try six fewer, 65 is the max 23rd can get so 66 points is mathematically safe ... now for some maths.

Assume Scunthorpe get no more points.
376 games played, 176 games remaining = max 528 more points.
points gained so far, excluding Scunthorpe = 990
total possible points for 23 teams, 990 + 528 = 1518
average per team, 1518 / 23 = 66.000
but all 23 teams can't finish on 66 points as this assumes no draws & many team can not get to 66 points without some draws, plus FGR vs Scunthorpe takes FGR beyond 66pts or give pts to Scunthorpe.
This gives a theoretical maximum of 65 points for 23rd place.

To validate I tried to write a min/max points script ... failed, ended with a bit more manual process than I intended, but was able to validate 23rd could get 65 points ... example below with Exeter 23rd with 65 points.

 

[Devon Red]

Try six fewer, 65 is the max 23rd can get so 66 points is mathematically safe ... now for some maths.

Assume Scunthorpe get no more points.
376 games played, 176 games remaining = max 528 more points.
points gained so far, excluding Scunthorpe = 990
total possible points for 23 teams, 990 + 528 = 1518
average per team, 1518 / 23 = 66.000
but all 23 teams can't finish on 66 points as this assumes no draws & many team can not get to 66 points without some draws, plus FGR vs Scunthorpe takes FGR beyond 66pts or give pts to Scunthorpe.
This gives a theoretical maximum of 65 points for 23rd place.

To validate I tried to write a min/max points script ... failed, ended with a bit more manual process than I intended, but was able to validate 23rd could get 65 points ... example below with Exeter 23rd with 65 points.

View attachment 7969

Need a couple more cups of tea before I can get my head around this!

 

[denzel]

Try six fewer, 65 is the max 23rd can get so 66 points is mathematically safe ... now for some maths.

Assume Scunthorpe get no more points.
376 games played, 176 games remaining = max 528 more points.
points gained so far, excluding Scunthorpe = 990
total possible points for 23 teams, 990 + 528 = 1518
average per team, 1518 / 23 = 66.000
but all 23 teams can't finish on 66 points as this assumes no draws & many team can not get to 66 points without some draws, plus FGR vs Scunthorpe takes FGR beyond 66pts or give pts to Scunthorpe.
This gives a theoretical maximum of 65 points for 23rd place.

To validate I tried to write a min/max points script ... failed, ended with a bit more manual process than I intended, but was able to validate 23rd could get 65 points ... example below with Exeter 23rd with 65 points.

View attachment 7969

Good work. I know its never going to happen, but imagine 23 clubs going into the last day all with the possibility of being either promoted or relegated. I think we would all lose our minds!

 

[Grecian in Cumbria]

Good work. I know its never going to happen, but imagine 23 clubs going into the last day all with the possibility of being either promoted or relegated. I think we would all lose our minds!

Good work - although worth pointing out that Stevenage would also have to make up a 35 goal difference deficit on us - is Tis up to this?