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Politics Today

arthur

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I concede that with a very good constituency MP it is possible, but I can probably count them on the fingers of one hand how many of them there are. Difficult to prove as well. Exeter was a solid Tory seat, but Bradshaw came in with Blair so can't claim to have won it himself necessarily. We shall have to see what happens next time, although a countrywide swing to Labour will likely see them home.
One of the reasons Labour won Exeter in 1997 was that Labour had been steadily gaining Council seats all through the nineties and was so indisputably the main challenger to the Tories. The fact that Exeter had Council elections every year also meant that the Labour party electoral machine was constantly working and knew where to target its resources. IIRC the Liberal Democrat candidate, one Graham Oakes, who had been working the constituency assiduously since the strong SDP showing in 1997 suddenly disappeared off somewhere he thought more winnable, leaving Labour a clear run at the Tories. And, let us not forget, Tory Candidate Adrian Rogers who replaced the well respected John Hannam was ridiculous...
 

arthur

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art giving praise to not only Theresa May, but Boris Johnson too.

I think I've heard it all now!

Complete bunkum by trying to make a point.

PS - FTSE's up today & £ vs $ at 1.12 and rising. And as Tav pointed out, the UK isn't actually in recession.
So you think the red wall is still on board? Dream on....
 

Mr Jinx

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So you think the red wall is still on board? Dream on....
We shall see. It's the red wall that is most reactive to woke, after all. And as Tav pointed out - 2.5 long years to go.
 

Spanks

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We shall see. It's the red wall that is most reactive to woke, after all. And as Tav pointed out - 2.5 long years to go.
That was before the blunderTruss got fired.
 

arthur

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We shall see. It's the red wall that is most reactive to woke, after all. And as Tav pointed out - 2.5 long years to go.
I think the red wall might be slightly more reactive to hefty mortgage rate increases, and the small matter of cutting tax for the wealthy/abolishing tax on bankers' bonuses during a cost of living crisis. Not to mention galloping inflation and more expensive foreign holidays. But hey ho, Starmer doing what every Premier League footballer, and Exeter City footballer too for that matter, did, is obviously a far more pressing matter. Has it struck you that you might be ever so slightly obsessed with this issue?
 

Mr Jinx

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Has it struck you that you might be ever so slightly obsessed with this issue?
Why would I be obsessed, when I'm simply replying to your post? Perhaps you are?
 

Alistair20000

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Why would I be obsessed, when I'm simply replying to your post? Perhaps you are?
art is getting very excited at the prospect of a Labour government Jinxy.

Cut him some slack. It may not happen.
 

arthur

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Why would I be obsessed, when I'm simply replying to your post? Perhaps you are?
You keep going on about "woke" and Starmer Kneeley Wokey McWoke face etc. as if it was important with all the other stuff that's going on. This is what prompted my question
 

Alistair20000

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:):):):) You're seriously losing the plot Indo!
When I saw the new thread Sides on the Bank I thought for a moment that you had rocked up again Sidey
 

Alistair20000

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One of the reasons Labour won Exeter in 1997 was that Labour had been steadily gaining Council seats all through the nineties and was so indisputably the main challenger to the Tories. The fact that Exeter had Council elections every year also meant that the Labour party electoral machine was constantly working and knew where to target its resources. IIRC the Liberal Democrat candidate, one Graham Oakes, who had been working the constituency assiduously since the strong SDP showing in 1997 suddenly disappeared off somewhere he thought more winnable, leaving Labour a clear run at the Tories. And, let us not forget, Tory Candidate Adrian Rogers who replaced the well respected John Hannam was ridiculous...
Typo above art ?

In 1992 there was a vicious anti Tory/Hannam swing of 8.5% compared with the 1.95% national swing so it was pretty clear the seat was heading towards Labour.

In 1997 the swing was 12.5% against a national swing of 10%. Labour did of course give the chosen candidate John Lloyd the The Elbow shortly before the GE after it emerged he had been connected with terrorist activities in Africa. That let Ben Bradshaw in but he had no personal vote at that stage.

As you say the Tories shot themselves in both feet by selecting the preposterous and unelectable Adrian Rogers but they were going to lose the seat whoever they chose as candidate.

Ben undoubtedly has built up a decent personal vote but received wisdom is that this is generally no more than a few hundred votes even for an exceptional local member.

The seat is unlikely ever to return a Tory while so many students vote in Exeter. One day those students might appreciate the cut in the top rate of tax ;)

General election 1992: Exeter
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeJohn Hannam25,54341.1−3.3
LabourJohn N. Lloyd22,49836.2+13.7
Liberal DemocratsGraham J. Oakes12,05919.4−12.4
LiberalAlison C. Micklem1,1191.8New
GreenTim J.R. Brenan7641.2+0.2
Natural LawMichael J. Turnbull980.2New
Majority3,0454.9−7.7
Turnout62,08180.5−0.1
Conservative holdSwing−8.5
 
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