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Politics Today

Mr Jinx

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Not far fetched at all.

In all the rage, mine included, about Corbyn and his appalling clique, little attention has been focused on the dire state of the Liberal Democrats. The relatively stable, politically consistent party of Paddy Ashdown in 1997, which opposed the war and gained in strength then indulged in a well meaning but disastrous coalition with the Conservatives, who repaid their support by having them for breakfast. An intelligent, able leader was replaced by the out of his depth Farron and the totally out of her depth Swinson. Policy making and political direction veered all over the place, in an unthinking knee jerk search for votes which ended in disaster. The party is utterly washed out and directionless. Nevertheless it does retain a membership and activist base, most of whom are comfortably left of centre, much as Ashdown was quietly to the left of Blair. And most of the few Lib Dem MPs are thoroughly reasonable people

The fact that the LibDems are considering making their newest MP, Daisy Cooper, the Leader of the party tells us all we need to know. Things are very bad for Labour but they're arguably worse for the LibDems.
 

DB9

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So the final nail in the Stop Brexit coffin is to be confirmed this week with Johnson making any attempt to extend beyond 2020 illegal as an amendment in his WA, Hoping to put this to bed once and for all I guess
 

tavyred

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So the final nail in the Stop Brexit coffin is to be confirmed this week with Johnson making any attempt to extend beyond 2020 illegal as an amendment in his WA, Hoping to put this to bed once and for all I guess.
I wonder how Brussels will react to this without there being a sizeable rump of Brexit blocking MP’s to help muddy the waters. The days of certain MP’s constantly jumping on the Eurostar and having cosy chats with Michel and Guy are over.
 

DB9

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I wonder how Brussels will react to this without there being a sizeable rump of Brexit blocking MP’s to help muddy the waters. The days of certain MP’s constantly jumping on the Eurostar and having cosy chats with Michel and Guy are over.
I think it was only a matter of time this was going to happen, Johnson doesn't want to get bogged down with this and by doing this tells the EU it's "12 months or no deal" What happens here if it's a no deal is a different matter
 

iscalad

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Far away across the field
 

arthur

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So the final nail in the Stop Brexit coffin is to be confirmed this week with Johnson making any attempt to extend beyond 2020 illegal as an amendment in his WA, Hoping to put this to bed once and for all I guess
See post 7925. Very high risk I think
 

arthur

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So the final nail in the Stop Brexit coffin is to be confirmed this week with Johnson making any attempt to extend beyond 2020 illegal as an amendment in his WA, Hoping to put this to bed once and for all I guess
Still waiting to hear from the Brexiters on this..

I had assumed that Johnson would use his majority to ditch the ERG (as May wanted to) and pursue a fairly benign (i.e. not too damaging), soft Brexit which would not risk further damaging the northern constituencies he's just won. Brexit as an issue would then fizzle out, apart from some noises off from Farage and Francois, who everyone will all be pretty sick of. Johnson can then be a mainstream government for a good few years while the opposition endlessly farts about. We've just had his 1979 - there is 1983 and 1987 to look forward to. A dream scenario for Johnson and a nightmare for me and others, due to his probable impregnability.

But he seems determined to put all this at risk. Given that:
a) the EU will not compromise the integrity of its single market
b) the EU cannot afford to give a "third country" a trade deal that is anywhere near as beneficial as being a member

it is likely that the only trade deal Johnson can conclude in the short time he has made available to himself and his inexperienced negotiating team (the UK hasn't negotiated a trade deal for a very long time) is one that involves agreeing to all the EU's demands. That won't go down very well and raises the "have we really gone through all this pain and torment for just this" cry which would be uttered by Leavers and Remainers alike.

The only other alternative he leaves himself is to leave without a deal which would be incredibly risky, particularly to the constituencies he's just won...

The only explanation I can see is that Cummings, the wrecker supreme, is behind all this, which then begs the question Why has Johnson gone along with it? Perhaps he really is not as bright as he thinks he is and does actually believe all his own hype - "I got the withdrawal agreement reopened, I got rid of the backstop, I can negotiate and get ratified a complex trade deal in 10 months"

No mate, you got the withdrawal agreement changed because you agreed to more or less everything the EU wanted (did they concede anything - er, no), you changed the backstop to a full stop, leaving NI permanently in the Customs Union and aligned to the Single Market (and sold your DUP allies down the river in the process) and you are not a brilliant, cunning negotiator, but a vain overpromoted needy person who just wants people to adore him. Not the best profile for an international negotiator..

Thoughts, Tavy and Jason? Why risk everything like this?
 

Jason H

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I think (leaving aside the inaccuracies in your post re: NI) it's a gamble, but not an insurmountable one given we're starting from 100% and going down to wherever we end up, rather than other trade deals that start at 0% and work their way up, with all the pitfalls that entails (e.g. Mexico trade deal scuppered because Spain doesn't like them producing manchego).
 

arthur

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I think (leaving aside the inaccuracies in your post re: NI) it's a gamble, but not an insurmountable one given we're starting from 100% and going down to wherever we end up, rather than other trade deals that start at 0% and work their way up, with all the pitfalls that entails (e.g. Mexico trade deal scuppered because Spain doesn't like them producing manchego).
I was hoping for a bit more than that!

Do you think this course of action is wise?
Do you think he will secure a good deal in the short time he has left himself?
Why you think he has boxed himself in in this way when he has a sizeable majority and doesn't need to?
 

Jason H

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Wise? Time will tell. It's a gamble.
A good deal? Yeah, why not - as I say we're going from 100% downwards, not 0% upwards.
Boxed in? Quite possibly.
 
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