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DB9

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The 2nd most likely scenario post the next election IMO is Labour needing a coalition partner or two to form the next government, so rather than hide behind Starmer’s temporarily politically expedient ‘no deals with other parties’ bullcrap it might be useful if you go through the intellectual exercise of what would Starmer actually have to do if he is confronted with the highly possible situation where he needs the help of the SNP to become PM.
if you think SKS will just give up on government you’re deluded.
Game it out DB and if you’re honest with us and yourself, you’ll come to the highly likely conclusion that he will have to strike a deal to become PM.
That being obvious, we then get to the very interesting discussion on what price would SKS have to pay for the cooperation of the independence obsessed, high spending, pro EU and open borders loving SNP? 😉
Any ideas DB?
You must have been very hot and not able to sleep posting this at just after 2am? My view on this is that no coalition has been expressed anywhere so until if this comes to light it is just scare mongering, Also i think that you over egg this and those that would want the Scots to leave are the right of things politically so isn't this "Scenario" just what you want? No I'm not deluded thanks and tbh if it were to happen and a second indyref was granted the SNP would lose imo, As long as the consequenses arespelt out what actual independence from the UK really means the Scots imo would reject it, As for "high spending, pro EU and open borders loving SNP" High spending would stop because they can't do that without Westminster money (Barrett formula? you've said) EU loving, Fine but the SNP would have to be honest and tell the Scottish people that EU membership would take at least a decade if not more, You only have to look at Ukraine, After all the initial bluster from the EU about Ukraine joining that has gone very quiet and would take years if it ever happens, The last thing the EU need during these troubled times is a country or countries that would need constant money pumped into it and Scotland imo would need a lot because the Westminster tap would be turned off, Open borders, This would be another NI scenario, Whether it is trade or people trying to cross into the UK, A hard border would have to be put in, Unlike NI it would not be a threat with guns and imo the Scots would be the losers.
 

tavyred

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You must have been very hot and not able to sleep posting this at just after 2am? My view on this is that no coalition has been expressed anywhere so until if this comes to light it is just scare mongering, Also i think that you over egg this and those that would want the Scots to leave are the right of things politically so isn't this "Scenario" just what you want?
Don’t quite understand your point DB, you’re being asked to ‘game out’ a situation that has a reasonable high chance of happening. The fact that your refusing to do so is quite telling IMO. I think the Tories will still sneak a majority at the next GE but if the current polls are replicated then the most likely scenario is Labour needing a coalition partner to govern. Why won’t you think through the ramifications of that and spitball like the rest of us on what Labour would have to offer the SNP to get them on board? No harm surely, other than it would blow a hole in your argument that the ‘fear’ in England of a ‘coalition of chaos’ scenario will not have a real resonance come the next GE campaign.

NB.
I’m leading a bit of a 24hr existence at the mo DB as Mrs Tav having recently undergone a major ‘lady operation’ is finding the extreme heat at night very uncomfortable and being the dutiful husband I am, I’m helping out. A situation not helped by an ageing ‘mutton Jeff ‘ Labrador who’s body clock has gone haywire recently and is whining to go out at all hours. 🙄
 

Hermann

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Don’t quite understand your point DB, you’re being asked to ‘game out’ a situation that has a reasonable high chance of happening. The fact that your refusing to do so is quite telling IMO. I think the Tories will still sneak a majority at the next GE but if the current polls are replicated then the most likely scenario is Labour needing a coalition partner to govern. Why won’t you think through the ramifications of that and spitball like the rest of us on what Labour would have to offer the SNP to get them on board? No harm surely, other than it would blow a hole in your argument that the ‘fear’ in England of a ‘coalition of chaos’ scenario will not have a real resonance come the next GE campaign.

NB.
I’m leading a bit of a 24hr existence at the mo DB as Mrs Tav having recently undergone a major ‘lady operation’ is finding the extreme heat at night very uncomfortable and being the dutiful husband I am, I’m helping out. A situation not helped by an ageing ‘mutton Jeff ‘ Labrador who’s body clock has gone haywire recently and is whining to go out at all hours. 🙄
Surely a Conservative minority government would be a more likely scenario, in which case what do you think would happen then? Let's assume the DUP aren't enough to make up a majority (even if they were willing to).
 

arthur

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I guess if you say it enough times.

Any of the right wing press jumped ship yet? Wake me up when they do. There's a good chap.
Answer my question, there's a good chap. Three top ultra policies please
 

arthur

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Realistically a 92 is the best they can hope for under the current circumstances. A 97 would send the right wingers spinning into the abyss.
A Truss government with a working majority? Seriously? My friend Alistair is entirely correct- I wouldn't want to live in a country that did that to itself.
 

tavyred

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Surely a Conservative minority government would be a more likely scenario, in which case what do you think would happen then? Let's assume the DUP aren't enough to make up a majority (even if they were willing to).
What other party would go into coalition with the Tories apart from the DUP?
My guess would be none, so it’s over to Labour in that situation. 🤷‍♂️
 

arthur

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I'm talking about the GE after. If the GE in two years is a 92, the new leader will be delighted with a result that makes a 97 much more achievable.
A97 is achievable now if the Labour Party got its act together
 

DB9

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Don’t quite understand your point DB, you’re being asked to ‘game out’ a situation that has a reasonable high chance of happening. The fact that your refusing to do so is quite telling IMO. I think the Tories will still sneak a majority at the next GE but if the current polls are replicated then the most likely scenario is Labour needing a coalition partner to govern. Why won’t you think through the ramifications of that and spitball like the rest of us on what Labour would have to offer the SNP to get them on board? No harm surely, other than it would blow a hole in your argument that the ‘fear’ in England of a ‘coalition of chaos’ scenario will not have a real resonance come the next GE campaign.

NB.
I’m leading a bit of a 24hr existence at the mo DB as Mrs Tav having recently undergone a major ‘lady operation’ is finding the extreme heat at night very uncomfortable and being the dutiful husband I am, I’m helping out. A situation not helped by an ageing ‘mutton Jeff ‘ Labrador who’s body clock has gone haywire recently and is whining to go out at all hours. 🙄
My point is this is just a scare mongering tactic, it might work, It might not, The SNP want a ref by end of 2023? Even if they get one i think it will be a resounding no by the Scottish people and where would that leave the SNP? As for a high chance of happening, that is your opinion, Go back 12 months, would you have fore seen what is going on in Westminster?

Please send my best wishes to your good lady and hope she recovers fully, As for your ageing dog, He's only doing what us blokes do when we get to a certain age, Whine! (As I'm told by Mrs DB9 often) :)
 

Hermann

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A Truss government with a working majority? Seriously? My friend Alistair is entirely correct- I wouldn't want to live in a country that did that to itself.
I do hope you don't have to emigrate in a few years, but I fear you might.
 

arthur

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Game it out DB and if you’re honest with us and yourself, you’ll come to the highly likely conclusion that he will have to strike a deal to become PM.
That being obvious, we then get to the very interesting discussion on what price would SKS have to pay for the cooperation of the independence obsessed, high spending, pro EU and open borders loving SNP? 😉
Any ideas DB?
A constitutional commission, supported by citizens assemblies across the UK, to look at all the options, including independence, for improving the government of the four nations of the UK.

The options proposed by such a commission to be then put to an exhaustive referendum ballot (I.e. single transferable vote) in all four nations.

This will keep the SNP onside for three years without conceding anything the English nationalists, who apparently abound in that country, can get upset about.

My best to Mrs Tavy. Still waiting for her first post
 
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