Politics Today

[Mr Jinx]

Alex Salmond has declared war on Nicola Sturgeon

This is a big deal. The Times says it has had advanced sight of Alex Salmond’s evidence to a Scottish parliament inquiry on sexual harassment and it makes for uncomfortable reading for Nicola Sturgeon. The former SNP leader is allegedly accusing his one-time protege of misleading the Holyrood...

www.spectator.co.uk

And it is a big deal apparently. At first glance, it appears to be a bit of a storm in a teacup, but if Salmons wins, it'll spell the end for Krankie and possibly see Alex back in the driving seat. And that wouldn't be a bad thing imho. I much prefer Alex Salmon to Sturgeon; I like often what he has to say. Not saying I agree with most of it, but I think he's a good and canny politician.

 

[Trapdoor]

Last year EY estimated £1.2 trillion was lost in deals being done in the EU which would have otherwise been done in London and assuming the equivalence deal for services is done at the end of 2021 that number will be even bigger this year.

That being said there is an opportunity for London to act in a more agile fashion than the bigger slower EU markets. London has a history of innovation and we will need that spirit and creativity to show through more than ever if we are going to try and counterbalance this severe financial headwind.

 

[tavyred]

The FTSE index has seen a circa 6% boost in its fortunes since the new year and experts are predicting that The City will deregulate in order to keep its status as the worlds leading financial centre.

 

[Trapdoor]

The FTSE index has seen a circa 6% boost in its fortunes since the new year and experts are predicting that The City will deregulate in order to keep its status as the worlds leading financial centre.

It won't be able to deregulate that much however since we still want equivalency. The EU won't let London move too much further than current position.
The alternative is we give up all equivalency and access and try to forge an independent Singapore style solution. That's not going to be good however since most of our services market is focused on Europe. We aren't ever going to replace Singapore and New York as the de facto Asian and American market hubs.

(Also the FTSE price is completely irrelevant in this discussion.)

 

[IndoMike]

The FTSE index has seen a circa 6% boost in its fortunes since the new year and experts are predicting that The City will deregulate in order to keep its status as the worlds leading financial centre.

Deregulation? Wasn't that the root cause of the last financial crash in 2008?

 

[Trapdoor]

Also worth noting: 1.2 trillion is an almost incomprehensibly large sum of money.

The NHS total annual budget by comparison is only a pitiful £120 billion. You could fund 10 complete NHS organisations with that amount of money. Now admittedly the treasury only sees a very small amount of taxation on those transactions but it's still eye watering sums of money which we no longer get a slice of. Our GDP will unquestionably be worse going forward, but we can be clever and maybe pare back some of these losses through good strategy and regaining access to these markets.

 

[tavyred]

It won't be able to deregulate that much however since we still want equivalency. The EU won't let London move too much further than current position.
The alternative is we give up all equivalency and access and try to forge an independent Singapore style solution. That's not going to be good however since most of our services market is focused on Europe. We aren't ever going to replace Singapore and New York as the de facto Asian and American market hubs.

(Also the FTSE price is completely irrelevant in this discussion.)

Would it not be a tad strange if the EU didn’t grant the U.K. equivalency as their direction of travel of late is to open up to third countries as regards access and to play hardball too much might force the U.K. into a Singapore-on-Thames policy which I think on balance the EU would want to avoid?
As with the trade on goods negotiations won’t both sides just want to compromise in the end?

 

[IndoMike]

The Impact of Brexit on the Financial Services Sector | Toptal®

Since the historic Brexit vote, much speculation has been made regarding the effects this would have on the UK's economy. In this article, I take a look at what the anticipated impacts of Brexit on the UK financial sector are, assess their merits and likelihood, and see what the long-lasting...

www.toptal.com

 

[Mr Jinx]

Would it not be a tad strange if the EU didn’t grant the U.K. equivalency as their direction of travel of late is to open up to third countries as regards access and to play hardball too much might force the U.K. into a Singapore-on-Thames policy which I think on balance the EU would want to avoid?
As with the trade on goods negotiations won’t both sides just want to compromise in the end?

I think the UK will now slide in the Singapore direction regardless of what the EU does or doesn't do. How far down and how quickly we go I suppose does depend a lot on how the EU decides to play it.

 

[angelic upstart]

I think the UK will now slide in the Singapore direction regardless of what the EU does or doesn't do. How far down and how quickly we go I suppose does depend a lot on how the EU decides to play it.

Agree with this. But is this a positive thing? Arguably, there’s enough established Singapore style nations to make it difficult for the UK to fit in. With the growth of AI jobs will be scarcer anyway and more global so the need for this style of model may soon be redundant.

Personally, I’d prefer a series of “hubs” around the country for specialising in certain specific areas of potential growth.