Investment Proposal - Trust ballot

Trapdoor

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Sep 19, 2020
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First of all, I think this is a brilliant level of communication from Nick Hawker. The financial detail is massively appreciated. Kudos for that.
Secondly in my view this is a relatively prudent level of investment given our forecasted cashflow. I will be voting in favour of this, the risks of Brentford non-payment etc. is pretty low, particularly now that they have reached the premiership. It's not zero risk obviously, but it's low. Player development and the academy is the lifeblood of the club and community, having fit for purpose facilities will help support the continuation of that.

UTC.
 

Matt Phillips

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Sep 14, 2016
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Manchester
Agree with others, that this is really good initial comms on the training ground development.

In general, I'm on board with the proposal, but I do have some concerns on the financials presented, with some pretty big assumptions being made in the projections. I've sent the following questions to the Trust (along with some more general ones about how risk will be managed), but thought I'd raise here as well. I'll post if I get any answers.
  • Receipts from debtors: This increases by roughly £300k per year with out explanation. What is the basis of this? Is this reliant on the success of Project 6000?
  • Wages: These are assumed to be static over the next 5 years. How does this fit in with on-field ambitions?
  • Incremental Transfer Income: The budget assumes £2.775m of additional transfer income, above the £3.575m still known as owed from existing transfers. To what extent is this based on clauses on existing transfers which are yet to be triggered (i.e. Watkins international money), versus future sales?
  • The document also mentions sensitivities, but has not included these. What are the perceived key risks within the development itself, and the ongoing financial forecasts?
These questions aren't an indication of any concern - I think we can be confident that future player sales will provide sizeable funding - but I think that these questions should be addressed to provide further clarity as part of the consultation and evidence of the due diligence undertaken.
 

SEA Grecian

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Oct 14, 2018
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It would be great to do this development

For this exercise, what stress tests are applied is important, in particular what events would put the club in jeopardy. How bad is it if we don't get any as yet unconfirmed transfer income? And we are heavily dependent on stage payments on existing transfers. What happens if Aston Villa or Brentford have cash flow problems/delay payments? I suspect we are OK on this, but would like to see what the thought process has been, especially because of the words of caution about the pressure on the finance function.

(Finally I always have to have cash flow forecasts explained by somebody who understands them, as there are some figures that look cumulative - 'debtor' payments of 6-7m per year?- are they really cash inflows )
I am not a financial expert but from reading through the document it does appear that the club have been very cautious in their forecasting and considered the possible worst case scenarios. Presumably, also that is what the external due diligence people will be looking at.
 

SEA Grecian

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Oct 14, 2018
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Fair play to the trust asking it's members for a vote on this and long may that continue.

As a non trust member I can't vote but I'd be interested to see more detail and how this would effect other projects being undertaken by the club such as project 6K.

Other the that I've no view one way or the other just as long as the development doesn't

1) effect what is produced on the pitch come a Saturday and our ability to become a league one club in the near future.

or

2) the club has plans to get ourselves out of any mess if this all goes south and we find ourselves neck deep in it.
All the information that was e-mailed to Trust members is available on the club website.
 
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ExmouthMart

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Bristol
- Is it a fixed price job for completion by a pre determined date. Who pays if it goes over budget and if there are unforeseen issues. This in my view can not be underestimated.
- Length of lease for training ground.
- Most important thing is, is the project affordable now to completion not unaffordable if we wait any longer.
- Down to Trust if the club has to pay back the loan in 4 years and their discretion if there is any interest on loan. I am sure it mentions the loan on ‘ commercial terms’ somewhere.
- Who is Taylor thinking about selling besides Key if he thinks @£1m in transfer fees is on the conservative side.
- it’s partly underpinned by robust, strong evidence that we won’t be relegated! Seriously?!
- openly admitting it puts a strain on our finance team to come up with the figures in a very short space of time when also admitting they are short of resource and the whole team has limited experience in capital investment.
- Capex including OTR 442,292. Any chance of a breakdown of this figure or is this another one in the undisclosed fee file……
- third party short diligence exercise into what’s been done so far?! Surely it’s got to be the cost of the whole project to completion.
- The First Team Manager fully supports the investment. If we are being robust now in our approach to everything with the huge sums involved and the financial implications of it going wrong very quickly. The Manager might find himself surplus to requirements because at the end of the day most of this relies on success on the pitch in both the short term and the long term.
Don’t have a go at me but think about this carefully because the ramifications could be fatal but equally it could all go through with no problems. To me it’s all a bit rushed to get it done by the end of the month but if people are prepared to put their name to it fair enough.
 

ExmouthMart

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Jun 19, 2013
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761
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Bristol
There is a genuine disadvantage to owning the freehold of the ground: it makes us ripe for speculators who'll be more interested in a sizable town centre plot ripe for mass housing than they will a football club at the arse end of the league.
I don’t understand this?! How would ‘speculators’ get their hands on the ground if The Trust actually owned it. There would have to be a proposal to the members to sell and I believe no individual on the board or Trust can force an issue to sell. It would safe guard our future in my eyes but what do I know.
 

iscalad

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Joined
Aug 22, 2007
Messages
18,103
Location
Far away across the field
- Is it a fixed price job for completion by a pre determined date. Who pays if it goes over budget and if there are unforeseen issues. This in my view can not be underestimated.
- Length of lease for training ground.
- Most important thing is, is the project affordable now to completion not unaffordable if we wait any longer.
- Down to Trust if the club has to pay back the loan in 4 years and their discretion if there is any interest on loan. I am sure it mentions the loan on ‘ commercial terms’ somewhere.
- Who is Taylor thinking about selling besides Key if he thinks @£1m in transfer fees is on the conservative side.
- it’s partly underpinned by robust, strong evidence that we won’t be relegated! Seriously?!
- openly admitting it puts a strain on our finance team to come up with the figures in a very short space of time when also admitting they are short of resource and the whole team has limited experience in capital investment.
- Capex including OTR 442,292. Any chance of a breakdown of this figure or is this another one in the undisclosed fee file……
- third party short diligence exercise into what’s been done so far?! Surely it’s got to be the cost of the whole project to completion.
- The First Team Manager fully supports the investment. If we are being robust now in our approach to everything with the huge sums involved and the financial implications of it going wrong very quickly. The Manager might find himself surplus to requirements because at the end of the day most of this relies on success on the pitch in both the short term and the long term.
Don’t have a go at me but think about this carefully because the ramifications could be fatal but equally it could all go through with no problems. To me it’s all a bit rushed to get it done by the end of the month but if people are prepared to put their name to it fair enough.
Lease is 25 years
 
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