International relations thread

[Phil Sayers]

If Ukraine can manufacture these in quantity and can make them reasonably accurate they will be able to attack thousands of targets (including in large swathes of Russia should Ukraine choose to do so) that are presently out of range. A 75 Kg warhead is not to be sniffed at; that is not far short of the warhead on a HIMARS rocket and those can gut or collapse buildings with one hit:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599415053198843904

 

[Phil Sayers]

It seems that the 'final stage of tests' for the above may have been a couple of real world combat demonstrations and, if so, the Ukrainians are really not f*cking about.

Overnight two airbases hosting Russia's strategic bomber fleet suffered major explosions. Both airbases are circa 500 KM from Ukraine so these attacks have either been carried out with a very long reach or by special forces on the ground with the former far more likely. One airbase saw a fuel truck hit and the resulting explosion killed three people with rumours of aircraft also being destroyed:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599674052532375552

The other airbase, Engels, is an even bigger deal as it is the primary base of Russia's bomber aircraft and likely the most strategically important airbase in all of Russia.

Apparently a couple of TU-95 Bears (instantly recognisable as the large propeller bomber aircraft that the RAF periodically release images of them intercepting north of Scotland) were damaged and a couple of people injured:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599660334783946752

In the immediate aftermath of the attack over a dozen aircraft sortied from the airbase (presumably to protect them from further attack and to prepare for retaliation) and are now engaged in launching the entirely predictable wave of missile attacks on civilian targets that Russia always does whenever their military suffers a black eye. Will be interesting to see if they return to Engels or are relocated further away.

It is hard to overstate how important this is. For Ukraine this is a way of reducing the number of missile attacks launched at them but for Russia it is a direct attack on an important component of their strategic nuclear deterrent. This will be causing enormous alarm throughout the Russian government and military; both because of the impressive range / accuracy / damage and because, if Ukraine is bold enough to attack Engels, there is basically no target at all that they would consider too sensitive. If the 1000 Km range claimed above is manageable (and they likely have just demonstrated 500 Km) even the Kremlin itself is in range.

 

[Phil Sayers]

One airbase saw a fuel truck hit and the resulting explosion killed three people with rumours of aircraft also being destroyed:

The rumour of aircraft being damaged at the other airbase is now confirmed:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599832518944903168

Scratch one TU-22 Backfire supersonic bomber to go with the TU-95 Bears damaged at Engels. That is the bare minimum because that is what the Russians are admitting to (not even officially admitting to the Backfire; that is a leaked photo) - taking out at least three strategic bombers in one night will have Putin very seriously angry / apprehensive.

 

[Phil Sayers]

Commercial satellite imagery of the above is already available - seems the Backfire in the above image has also sustained serious damage to its wing on the other side from where the photo was taken. IMO the odds are it will never fly again and will instead be cannibalised for spare parts:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599828840078942208

 

[Phil Sayers]

Assad has somehow managed to lose 24 Generals in a year without any substantial battles being fought (although they still had two KIA in smaller engagements):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600172139608276998

Some of the rest will be from insurgency related assassinations but most are probably due to internal feuding / cleaning the house of loose ends.

 

[Phil Sayers]

If (and its not yet confirmed) the US goes ahead and sends Patriot batteries they will be providing one of the most effective long range SAMs on the planet:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602721670200020992

These are capable of intercepting aircraft at 100 miles range (although the main reason for sending them would be to engage incoming missiles at much shorter range) and I wonder whether the US will try to modify them so that Ukraine cannot use them to down Russian aircraft that are within Russian airspace.

 

[Alistair20000]

If (and its not yet confirmed) the US goes ahead and sends Patriot batteries they will be providing one of the most effective long range SAMs on the planet:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602721670200020992

These are capable of intercepting aircraft at 100 miles range (although the main reason for sending them would be to engage incoming missiles at much shorter range) and I wonder whether the US will try to modify them so that Ukraine cannot use them to down Russian aircraft that are within Russian airspace.

Were the Patriot batteries used to shoot down Scuds in the Gulf War ? I assume these are later updated versions

 

[Phil Sayers]

Were the Patriot batteries used to shoot down Scuds in the Gulf War ? I assume these are later updated versions

Yes and yes.

 

[Average Joe]

I said this many posts ago that we deployed ground troops very early on but was called out..

Very proud of our rapid response team from 45 Commando. The UK forces really are a scary team. To have the confidence to send our team and get the lads back again safely shows how good we are.

Royal Marines have taken part in 'high-risk' covert operations in Ukraine, general reveals (msn.com)

 

[DB9]

I said this many posts ago that we deployed ground troops very early on but was called out..

Very proud of our rapid response team from 45 Commando. The UK forces really are a scary team. To have the confidence to send our team and get the lads back again safely shows how good we are.

Royal Marines have taken part in 'high-risk' covert operations in Ukraine, general reveals (msn.com)

You need to re-read this, It was not exactly deploying troops but using the Marines if needed to defend or evacuate the staff of the British Embassies and Consulates, Which are in international law British Territories, As we're not "At War" with Russia and Ukraine is our ally we are not putting troops on the ground, Yes the Russians could say that but like their other claims about Nato, Dirty Bombs, Nuclear Weapons etc does not stand up or anyone other than say Belarus or Syria take it seriously, If Russia had taken over Ukraine and Kyiv they could of made life difficult for those working at Western Enbassies/Consulates but could do nothing aggresive about it.