Mr Jinx
Very well known Exeweb poster
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- 14,847
Amended for factuals.
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International relations thread
- Thread starter Suzi & The Banned Cheese
- Start date
Phil Sayers
Very well known Exeweb poster
Peace negotiations (indeed much the same can be said of many negotiations) only tend to work where one of the following applies: 1) both sides have had enough of the carnage, grieving and disruption 2) both sides come under sufficient international pressure that they are forced to do a deal or 3) one side concludes they probably cannot win and persisting in trying will only make things worse.
None of the following applies here in that 1) while Ukraine would obviously prefer an immediate cessation of hostilities on advantageous terms they remain fully committed to continuing the fight unless and until such advantageous terms are offered and in Russia's instance they are not (yet) willing to walk away having achieved basically nothing except the loss of their military's once formidable reputation. Point 2) Neither side will come under much international pressure because in Ukraine's instance their backers are nearly as committed as they are and are far from unhappy that Russia is being progressively weakened in every respect while Russia does not really answer to anyone who could put them under such international pressure that it would force a peace deal (sanctions could potentially later make this the case, particularly if China could be persuaded to join in which seems very unlikely). Point 3) this is the best bet for peace but we are not yet there. If the current obliteration of the Russian military and Russian economy continues apace then Putin may eventually conclude that an embarrassing peace poses less threat to his rule than continuing to gamble on a steadily less likely victorious outcome.
Phil Sayers
Very well known Exeweb poster
Putin probably won't be too happy with his lackey's comments here:
Something to keep an eye on. Probably just some kids having fun trolling the Russians but there is a small chance that Ukraine is very confident it now has the ability to destroy this bridge (which is 12 miles long, vital to Russia's ability to reinforce in the south of Ukraine, vital to Crimea's economy and which a Ukrainian minister has already said they would hit if they could) at the exact time they say they will (Russia's big parade!) despite giving three day's warning of their intentions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge
Something to keep an eye on. Probably just some kids having fun trolling the Russians but there is a small chance that Ukraine is very confident it now has the ability to destroy this bridge (which is 12 miles long, vital to Russia's ability to reinforce in the south of Ukraine, vital to Crimea's economy and which a Ukrainian minister has already said they would hit if they could) at the exact time they say they will (Russia's big parade!) despite giving three day's warning of their intentions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge
Phil Sayers
Very well known Exeweb poster
Nothing of any substance yet but a lot of rumours circulating that Ukraine has managed to hit a modern Russian frigate with anti-shipping missiles, that the ship is ablaze and may soon be joining the Moskva at the bottom of the Black Sea.
Banksy
Very well known Exeweb poster
Huge Russian warship 'on fire after being hit by missile' in new blow for Putin
Vladimir Putin's new flagship the Admiral Makarov is one of only three of its class in Russia's Black Sea fleet and its sinking would be a blow to the bloodthirsty president shortly after Moscow lost the Moskva
www.mirror.co.uk
Suzi & The Banned Cheese
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"Support for Ukraine is horribly dangerous. At the next stage of the war for the Ukrainians to attack entrenched Russian positions across open country would be a very different matter from defending Ukrainian cities. The tactical advantage would inevitably shift to Russia. Ukraine could thereby suffer immense losses and turn victory into defeat.
If Ukraine did seem on the verge of complete victory, the threat to Putin’s regime and to Russian vital interests would be such that it really would seem possible Russia might escalate to missile strikes against NATO supply lines in Poland, in an effort to terrify France and Germany into making a separate peace.
Once a NATO member is attacked, the US is likely to declare a no fly zone in Ukraine and send in the US air force into action to support the Ukrainian forces on the ground. Some of these planes will then be shot down by missile batteries based in Russia itself. How long would the US accept these casualties before launching attacks on Russian territory?
We would then be faced with a prospect that, during the cold war, eight US presidents took great care to avoid: Russia and NATO firing missiles into each other’s territory, and a direct conflict in Europe between two nuclear superpowers, with the ability between them to destroy humanity."
If Ukraine did seem on the verge of complete victory, the threat to Putin’s regime and to Russian vital interests would be such that it really would seem possible Russia might escalate to missile strikes against NATO supply lines in Poland, in an effort to terrify France and Germany into making a separate peace.
Once a NATO member is attacked, the US is likely to declare a no fly zone in Ukraine and send in the US air force into action to support the Ukrainian forces on the ground. Some of these planes will then be shot down by missile batteries based in Russia itself. How long would the US accept these casualties before launching attacks on Russian territory?
We would then be faced with a prospect that, during the cold war, eight US presidents took great care to avoid: Russia and NATO firing missiles into each other’s territory, and a direct conflict in Europe between two nuclear superpowers, with the ability between them to destroy humanity."
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DB9
Very well known Exeweb poster
The US and NATO took care as not to rattle the then USSR because they and various USSR leaders knew the outcome. Although we were on opposing ideological sides there was a sort of "Respect" for each other and tbh the Soviet leadership were a bit more "Human" than Putin, He would never have risen to Gen Secretary of the Russian Communist Party
DB9
Very well known Exeweb poster
.....
Banksy
Very well known Exeweb poster
A maniac of the Hitler type I’m afraid and that’s very dangerous. Rules by fear and thinks he’s always right.
We can only hope that he ends up the same way as his predecessor before he takes many more lives , some of his minions must be getting edgy right now , that’s why he sits a hundred yards from them.
IndoMike
Very well known Exeweb poster
Pretty fanciful idea, especially if giving 3 days notice. Probably something connected to a kids' gaming thingy.